OP, according with your model , we should be here by now :
Feb 14th: 97,576,000 /121,970,000 infected/848,000/1,060,000 with symptoms
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 170,000 - 212,000
Fortunately, we are not .
Isn't time to adjust your model ??.
Quoting: TIO JUAN Not until this week is over, but the model will be adjusted, without a doubt.
I used a 24 hrs. cycle, which is now proved wrong. But I also used a 2.4 R0, which is also now proven to be wrong. There is a ton of new data, pointing to a 2.4 days cycle, and R0>4. Other data point to an incubation period of closer to 20 days, instead 14.
So, there is a lot to work with my model.
Bare in mind that almost 70% of the cases, including the serious cases, are in India, Africa (54%), C&S.America (9-10%), Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia (5-6%), areas that are simply black holes : they reported ZERO cases (exception is India , with 3...which is virtually zero, considering their population).
I will adjust the model, with a lot of new data, but I am in no rush to do it until this week is over.
