OP is right on the money:
"Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the FDA said there are “certainly cases we don’t know about” in the US and he called for expanded testing because we’re “capturing 25% of cases at best.”“We’re going to see those outbreaks start to emerge in the next two to four weeks.”
"Asha George, executive director of the Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense, said there are generally seven or eight unseen cases for every known case. “It may be hundreds of thousands of cases” here ultimately, she warned.
Julie Gerberding, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said she is “very concerned about the prospects for long-term containment” and warned that “we simply don’t have the surge capacity” to handle a widespread outbreak.
Luciano Borio (former NSC) said number of actual cases is “much, much higher” than reported & “very concerning for a pandemic.” She said it is “sufficiently lethal to stress severely the health-care system” and “we need to brace ourselves for difficult weeks or months to come. …
#US #publichealth experts came before Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee today w/ worrisome warnings: The #coronavirus is probably already in US in greater numbers than we know & should show itself in clusters in the coming weeks.
Sources:
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link to twitter.com (secure)]
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link to www.washingtonpost.com (secure)]
I agree - OP's numbers might be a bit exaggerated but not by much.
Neil Ferguson from UK believes in numbers that are more in line with OPs.
Couple all of that with the Twitter text rumour of the CDC employee texting that there are 1000 cases in US right now.......I believe it.
If there are truly 1000 cases - then it is just a matter of time.
That would imply that at the beginning of February, the US was approximately where China was at the beginning of December.
Dr. John Campbell (from UK) said that he was in recent contact with a doctor friend in Africa who confirmed that his country (didn't say which one) had ZERO test kits and that he doubted any of the surrounding countries had any at all either.
Africa is CRAWLING with Chinese people building all kinds of stuff (they are good at that). There is NO WAY there are no infections in Africa. NO WAY.
Japan won't even test all 3700 people on the ship due to lack of kits.
NOT TO MENTION - the accuracy rate of the test kits appears to be somewhere in the 30-50% range. TERRIBLE.
While we do not really know the fatality rate - it appears to be somewhere between 1-2% ON AVERAGE. Sure, some areas of the world will have higher or lower death rates - but on average 1-2%. This is still alarmingly high for a virus that is so contagious.
Neil Ferguson (from UK) is very concerned about this virus b/c of its ability to spread so easily. In one interview, he implies that it is actually more powerful when the deathrate isn't too high as it won't burn out.
I don't think anyone needs to BUGOUT....as this virus is likely to return again next season and again and again.....at least for a few waves (a lot like Spanish Flu but with a lower death rate).
