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From the beginning, I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :
-Chinese official number
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5
Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.
The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd.
For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.
If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.
Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8.
As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa.
For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted :
January 28th 00:00 GMT :
Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.
January 29th, 00:00 GMT :
Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases.
January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases.
January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases.
February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258
February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397.
If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :
February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655
February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080.
If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :
February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900.
From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.
The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India and SE Asia.
If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :
Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800
From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.
There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.
I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :
FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.
If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
Quoting: deplorable recollector I'll take that bet. See you on the 15th. So many factors unknown to make such careless hyperbolic conjectures. ITS the 15th asshat. Where are the 2,204,800 Presenting Symptoms? Even if they were hiding numbers it can't be 2.2 million worth. Post like these are so irresponsible, so much so when a real problem arises no one will believe it. DOOM is not forcastable. It comes suddenly and overtakes quickly. Someone doesn't understand what a mathematical model is. Yeah, that is you. I don't know why are you so mad. Doom is not predictable, I give you that. But where do you see me giving any date for doom? What I said was common sense : IF my model is right, the healthcare systems will start feeling the pressure from Mid-February onward. My model was posted on January 28th, very little information was known at that point. And I repeat again, it is a MATHEMATICAL model. Not a prediction.Just look at the official data outside China, at this very moment. There are 689 confirmed cases. ONLY 27 of them are serious/critical. Every single medical authority and experts are saying that 15% of the cases are serious , with 3% critical. So, 18% of the cases are serious and critical. Well, 18% of 689 cases is 124.But we have only 27...that is 4.6 TIMES LESS than what it SHOULD BE.Why the discrepancy? Why there are only 27 serious/critical cases instead 124? The answer is simple : the detection rate of infected people outside China is very low, probably less than 5%. I have already said, multiple times, that this week is critical for my model, and it is clear that the basis of my model is wrong. I also said that the model will be modified after this week is over. Now, you asked where are the 2.2 million presenting symptoms. But there is another number there...1.7 million. Are there 1.7 million people outside China, presenting symptoms? MOST LIKELY YES, or damn CLOSE to 1.7 million. And if you wait until Monday, you will understand WHY my model is maybe 3-4 days off. There are 4.4 BILLION people in countries that reported a total of FOUR CASES : India 3 and Egypt 1. There are 1.9 BILLION people in countries that reported 684 cases. Do you really ask me where the the 1.7 million, or heck, the 2.2 million presenting symptoms? Well, 70% of those are those countries that reported ZERO cases, because those countries can't even diagnose a fucking headache, that's how underdeveloped they are. You seem to not understand numbers...2.2 million is A LOT for you? When there are 6.3 BILLION people outside China, with 70% of them in countries that are living in the 1950's standards, AT BEST?
While almost the entire 30% left are in countries in FULL flu season, where virtually none is testing the flu-like symptomatic people for COVID19, simply slapping the FLU diagnostic on them?
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