This kind of models are a conceptual tool for making decisions. There’s no way to know the exact reality at this moment, but this model gives a range. Anyone looking at this model can realize that this virus is a threat to the global economy, at the very least.

Probably, decision making authorities have their own models that may diverge or converge with this. Whatever the model, I suspect all of them paint a bleak outlook, so one can understand why certain measures are being taken.

What Gets me pissed of is that, at any rate, authorities are more worried about holding the panic and keeping the system running as long as they can, rather than to properly inform the people.

That’s why this model is so valuable for us, because it is telling us that we need to make decisions to weather this storm, and for that I can’t thank OP properly enough.