WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

Does it matter why the number of cases go up?

Also, do you think that the number of official cases matter, at all?


Italy is full of clusters. It's not only Sardinia, or whatever you want to believe is coming from.

It's the entire Italy. Like it or not.

Last Edited by Recollector on 08/22/2020 11:38 AM

UPDATES FROM ITALY

+1071 new positive cases
+ 3 deaths


R0 index is > 1 in 9 regions and 0.83 at a national level. (calculated between july 30th and august 12th)

But the ISS itself (Istituito Superiore di Sanità) stated today that the R0 index may be underestimated because it only takes in account symptomatic cases.
Therefore the virus is circulating more than the R0 index could explain/represent.

Source:
[link to www.ansa.it (secure)]



CLUSTERS:

We are currently struggling with 925 epidemic clusters (225 of which are new).

Source:
[link to tg24.sky.it (secure)]

Last Edited by Leonero on 08/22/2020 12:48 PM

Dr let me share some thought

1-Yes Italy is full of cluster but they remain isolated and controlled. Before the fools went on holiday abroad, the virus in Italy was endemic but no more pandemic. There's a huge difference

2-i think the best indicator is the ratio positive cases/number of tests and this ratio in Italy remains around the 1%. It's more or less the same ratio of June, July etc. Something more thanks to the travellers but nothing worrying for the moment

When the resurgence started in Spain, but it didn't yet in Italy, my theory on why it happened in Spain and not in Italy, was the following :

Spain did not managed to detect and isolate all clusters in time, while Italy managed to do it.


I continued with saying that Italy will lose control of their clusters, and it will see either a big outbreak (similar with the one in Spain) or several, smaller outbreaks.


Italy lost control of their clusters last week, and each day have proven this, and not only that, but also that Italy avoided a big outbreak, yet, is unable to avoid smaller outbreaks, which are currently happening. It was bound to happen one way or the other.


Italy is getting close to 1,000 clusters, 225 of them being new (thanks to Leonero for this info). That is A LOT, and it means, just like official cases, there are dozens of clusters in Italy, active, but not yet detected.


By the end of this month, Italy will see a steady growth in cases, reaching around 1,400-1,500 official cases per day, by September 1st.


The growth will accelerate in September, reaching 2.5-3k cases/day, being fed by hundreds of new clusters and schools reopening, while October will see a number of official cases on par with what it was in the Spring, around 4-5k cases / day.



For the moment, I cannot predict what will happen after October (for any country, not just Italy), all will depend if the schools stay open or not, local quarantines or lock-downs taking place or not, etc.

Last Edited by Recollector on 08/22/2020 01:40 PM

Here in Czech we recorded the highest daily infection level ever yesterday, which surpassed the previous record set back in spring, they had to remake the chart..

Here in Greece we have over 250 cases each day, two 17 year old females are on ventilators and people are not back from vacations yet.....
I expect all hell will break loose soon and hospitals will be full....
They are gonna open the schools on the 7th and require all kids to wear masks even in kindergarden!!! (the handmade masks and not proper masks)...
Uncle intel says 80% of people being tested in islands are positive and they are hiding numbers
Majority of people think that the virus is a hoax and dont want their kids to wear masks in school....
A kid a few days ago spoke with my son and said that the people in hospitals are dolls and not real people....i mean WTF.....
The stupidity of people is off the charts....
I dont know what will happen but I think its the same everywhere (someone came back from Italy and said in Italy people act like there is no virus)
There should be a list with all the assholes that go around saying its a hoax and should not be allowed in hospitals at all
People with covid are out in the streets partying, this idiotic female called a friend of mine and told him she has covid and that she had fever for only 3 days and she is well now and goes out for drinks and goes to the gym.....
Another dickhead is in an island and all his friends tested positive but he has not done the test because he does not want to go to quarantine so that he can keep going out.....
I mean the situation is critical here with millions of idiots

This is true, in Italy many people don't respect the safety rules, including politicians and celebrities.
Putting the mask on your arm is cool.

some info from Denmark. Went there on holiday over the weekend. Even though most tourists are German, which should be used to wearing masks in shops, restaurants etc., NOBODY was wearing masks, except myself. I went to one supermarket, a bakery, restroom facilities on a campground. Apparently, tourists are not taking this serious, although they should know better. In Denmark masks will be mandatory in some settings (public transporte etc) from next week on. I begin to think that even though there is a lot of information in the news about how the virus works (aerosols, sneezing), people are fed up and just ignore it, since it wasn't a big issue yet in their country, that might change soon. Or that they don't understand the long-term consequences for their daily life.

Thanks for the outstanding work and frequent updates on your model DR!! It is part of my daily routine to check your updates here.

UPDATES FROM ITALY

+ 1210 new positive cases
+ 7 deaths
+ 47 hospitalizations
+ 5 ICU
+ 883 in quarantine (at home / people with mild symptoms who doesn't need hospitalization)

+ 267 "recovered" (patients free from home quarantine/hospitalization that now have been tested negative)


Source:
[link to www.ansa.it (secure)]

Last Edited by Leonero on 08/23/2020 02:20 PM

1,210...on a Sunday?


Pfff...not good. I was expecting 1,400-1,500 /day at end of the month, I guess it will be more then that. Seems that there are too many clusters that escaped detection.


Again, an increase in numbers, without a major outbreak, just many smaller ones.


This could go both ways, but if the numbers will keep rising for the next week, I fear that Italy will face a much dire situation then Spain, with potentially tens (possible 100+) of localized outbreaks, before schools open, that they won't be able to control.

Last Edited by Recollector on 08/23/2020 01:01 PM

Exactly what I thought today while reading the reports... Sunday!
Also note that although the national report is usually published between 5pm and 6pm, some regions register their new positive cases on 3pm and on 4pm.
So many positive tests will be registered the day after.

I guess today cases are way more than reported.


But we (in Italy) know that many people are still waiting to get tested although they booked a swamp-test in hospital or decided to leave the new Drive-In Test Facilities because of a huge waiting line.

In addition to that, Drive-In Test Facilities in pullman/bus stations have been closed because bus drivers (coming from Central and Eastern EU countries) used to avoid them.

I am pretty sure that my country completely lost control on clusters...

Last Edited by Leonero on 08/23/2020 02:25 PM

1210 on Sunday because of the emergency caused by Italians coming back from abroad

They are testing in airports and ports anyone coming back from Spain Malta Greece Sardinia and something else

This is an exceptional situation. These people have been infected abroad not in Italy so they should be counted in other countries. They should be added to Spanish numbers and so on

You are in denial.


But you will wake up one week from today.

France, another 4,897 new cases...on a Sunday. Last Sunday, they had 3,065 new cases. That is an increase of 60%.

Italy, an increase of 150% compared to last Sunday.

Numbers are deceiving, especially since it compares 2 Sunday, just a week away from each other.

But if we do it with more weeks back, it's going to point out to a clear trend.



Looks like everything is going to happen as expected and predicted : Europe will have the second wave established by end of August, and September will see massive (about twice as much compared to March) increase in cases, followed by hospitalizations and ICU usage by the end of September, thanks to our dear leaders being set on opening the schools.


October is going to be decision time : full lock-down, for 4+ months, or we are going to be decimated before January.


Decimated as in 10% of the population dead (about 3-4%) + hospitalized (about 5-6%) + disabled for months ( about 1-2%), due to long term effects.


We will be very close to societal collapse...either way.

Last Edited by Recollector on 08/23/2020 02:48 PM

Why they should be counted in other countries if they are Italian citizens?

Key factor is not the citizenship. (but I got your point).
Key factor is the country where a patient is tested positive.
So, why they should be counted in other countries if they are tested positive in Italy and will be hospitalized/spend their quarantine in Italy?


For the other AC
E.G. There is a Chinese man, tested positive, who is currently hospitalized in Cotugno hospital (Naples). Of course it is added to the cases of Campania region (and to the national total cases). He tested positive in Italy and he is currently hospitalized in Italy (no matter where did he come from).

Another example (regional) is the tourist resort in Sardinia: people who tested positive in that specific cluster were added to the count of Sardinia's total positive cases (because they also spent their quarantine in that specific region).

Last Edited by Leonero on 08/23/2020 03:22 PM

Why is the lag so great from cases to hospital increases. Id expect a week or 2. But a full 5 weeks for cases in hospital to increase.

Whys the lag so long this time?
Is it due to the younger ones haveing to infect tje parents then the grand parents so 3 cycling of infections.


Also these kids, in theory should be immune for the winter.
But what happens dec-april next year when we see these kids getting infected again, is this where we see the average age of death take a nose dive as the younger start dieing?

Yout thoughts thanks as always

You're right Leo, that's what I meant. Quarantine or hospitalization will be in Italy because they are Italian citizens who return home, so it is correct to be counted as Italian cases
(sorry for my bad english)

DR-
Is there a point when locking down cannot stop it?

Except you cannot prove that everyone was abroad for 2 weeks and was infected abroad. And if they go to hospitals in Italy, they are now Italy's problem. Ergo, they are cases in Italy.

Not sure if anyone can find a published source, but my understanding from a first hand account is that the military is enforcing the lockdown in Aukland.



[link to news.yahoo.com (secure)]

[link to rep.repubblica.it (secure)]

50% of the new Italian cases has been infected abroad

Lock-downs will always stop it.


However, there is a theoretical point where lock-down effects will be limited, and it will take many months of lock-down before those effects will be significant enough to stop the spread of the virus.


I believe that that point is going to be (depending on the country) 6 to 8 weeks of schools being open.


Any country that is going to have their schools open for 8 straight weeks, will suffer greatly, and a lock-down will have to last 4-5 months, before the pandemic will be brought under control.


But 4-5 months of lock-down is economic suicide. No one will do it.



So, what we are facing now is pretty simple, I believe : if schools will stay open in September and October, the number of sick people (sick, as in needing hospitalization) is going to be massive.



I really don't see a way out, if schools will be open all the way through October. Lock-down or not, after, won't matter.

I totally understand and agree with what you're saying.
However, that is not what we are seeing in the US across states. In Colorado a visitor from Texas that test positive is not counted on Colorado's numbers. Who knows if they are ever counted on Texas but they are not being counted at the local level in Colorado.



Last Edited by Dick Tuttle on 08/24/2020 09:23 AM

Hey DR,

You specify Europe in above post. USA following similar trajectory / timeline?

Schools reopening, people returning to work from summer vacations and weaker immune system due to colder weather and less sunlight starting from October, will make the timelines in the Northern hemisphere pretty equal.

I expect the U.S. (especially northern half), Canada, Europe (most of it), Russia, Japan and China to have similar evolution of the pandemic starting from October.