Godlike Productions - Discussion Forum
Users Online Now: 2,049 (Who's On?)Visitors Today: 512,384
Pageviews Today: 880,555Threads Today: 387Posts Today: 6,026
11:14 AM


Rate this Thread

Absolute BS Crap Reasonable Nice Amazing
 

WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

 
Lady Jayne SmithModerator
Forum Administrator

08/25/2020 02:04 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Hello everyone.

We just secured and evacuataed our beach house on Galveston Island. Mandatory evac order.

As we were driving out, we saw 3 school buses full of people on the bridge. This could add to an uptick in cases in South Texas, and Southwest Louisiana if people pack into evac centers, and/or are transported packed into buses.

Last Edited by LJS on 08/25/2020 02:04 PM
Fate whispers to the warrior

"You cannot withstand the storm"

the warrior whispers back

"I am the storm"

INTJ-A

Killer Bunny
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77858655
United Kingdom
08/25/2020 02:05 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
UPDATES FROM ITALY

+ 1210 new positive cases
+ 7 deaths
+ 47 hospitalizations
+ 5 ICU
+ 883 in quarantine (at home / people with mild symptoms who doesn't need hospitalization)

+ 267 "recovered" (patients free from home quarantine/hospitalization that now have been tested negative)
 Quoting: Leonero



1,210...on a Sunday?


Pfff...not good. I was expecting 1,400-1,500 /day at end of the month, I guess it will be more then that. Seems that there are too many clusters that escaped detection.


Again, an increase in numbers, without a major outbreak, just many smaller ones.


This could go both ways, but if the numbers will keep rising for the next week, I fear that Italy will face a much dire situation then Spain, with potentially tens (possible 100+) of localized outbreaks, before schools open, that they won't be able to control.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


in other words only 47 sick people in the whole of Italy. FFS.. i wonder how many are also like 90 years old.
SWOOPSTER

User ID: 76699386
United States
08/25/2020 04:05 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Hello everyone.

We just secured and evacuataed our beach house on Galveston Island. Mandatory evac order.

As we were driving out, we saw 3 school buses full of people on the bridge. This could add to an uptick in cases in South Texas, and Southwest Louisiana if people pack into evac centers, and/or are transported packed into buses.
 Quoting: Lady Jayne Smith


Be safe and avoid the crowds.

Schools, "Germ Pools", just opened up here last week.
Waiting for the numbers to start climbing rapidly.
~S~
Leonero

User ID: 79305368
Italy
08/25/2020 04:36 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
UPDATES FROM ITALY

+ 1210 new positive cases
+ 7 deaths
+ 47 hospitalizations
+ 5 ICU
+ 883 in quarantine (at home / people with mild symptoms who doesn't need hospitalization)

+ 267 "recovered" (patients free from home quarantine/hospitalization that now have been tested negative)
 Quoting: Leonero



1,210...on a Sunday?


Pfff...not good. I was expecting 1,400-1,500 /day at end of the month, I guess it will be more then that. Seems that there are too many clusters that escaped detection.


Again, an increase in numbers, without a major outbreak, just many smaller ones.


This could go both ways, but if the numbers will keep rising for the next week, I fear that Italy will face a much dire situation then Spain, with potentially tens (possible 100+) of localized outbreaks, before schools open, that they won't be able to control.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


in other words only 47 sick people in the whole of Italy. FFS.. i wonder how many are also like 90 years old.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77858655


Nope

A total of:

971 patients currently hospitalized
69 patients currently in ICU
(at the time when I posted the update)

[link to tg24.sky.it (secure)]
Ad Omnia Paratus
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79304665
United Kingdom
08/25/2020 04:51 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
A 75-year-old woman from Nottingham is thought to be the first person to have contracted #COVID19 from within the UK.

Research from @UniofNottingham also suggests it could have been widely circulating in early Feb.”

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

From the article...

Before she died after falling ill with the virus, the woman had provided a test sample while in hospital with severe breathing difficulties as early as February 21.

The study, which is yet to be peer-reviewed, states the woman - 'Patient 1' - is likely the very first community recorded case in the country.

The preliminary study also revealed DNA sequencing showed there had been multiple bouts of the virus which had been introduced into the region before wide-scale testing was introduced.

These results are therefore suggesting the virus was actually already circulating in local communities in the UK in early February and into March, and was undetected because of restrictive case definitions that informed testing policy at the time.
The Gathering Storm

User ID: 76645858
United Kingdom
08/26/2020 06:02 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Was it all for nothing? With Spain, France and Germany recording the highest number of virus cases since they emerged from lockdown, the danger that Europe blows its best chance of taming the coronavirus grows by the day.

[link to www.bloomberg.com (secure)]
UKguy
User ID: 79303641
United Kingdom
08/26/2020 08:46 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
[link to www.google.co.uk (secure)]


Kids over 12 to wear masks at school in UK in yet another U Turn policy
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79307398
Italy
08/26/2020 11:40 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Chart cases in Italy
[link to www.meteoweb.eu]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79299436
United States
08/26/2020 03:48 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
When you want the numbers to disappear, tell the CDC to stop testing. America, land of the lost.

USE-FULL-LINK-UtWuq6BMM0?amp=1
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79299436
United States
08/26/2020 03:48 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
When you want the numbers to disappear, tell the CDC to stop testing. America, land of the lost.

USE-FULL-LINK-UtWuq6BMM0?amp=1
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79299436


In a shift that perplexed some doctors, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has changed its Covid-19 testing guidelines to say some people without symptoms may not need to be tested, even if they've been in close contact with someone known to have the virus.
Previously, the CDC said viral testing was appropriate for people with recent or suspected exposure, even if they were asymptomatic.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79299436
United States
08/26/2020 04:17 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
NOT GOOD!!!! Avoidance doesn't make a pandemic go away!

"The C.D.C. was pressured to change guidance on testing asymptomatic people who had been exposed to the virus.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was instructed by higher-ups within the Trump administration to modify its coronavirus testing guidelines this week to exclude people who do not have symptoms of Covid-19 — even if they have been recently exposed to the virus, according to two federal health officials.

One official said the directive came from the top down. Another said the guidelines were not written by the C.D.C. but were imposed.

Admiral Brett M. Giroir, the administration’s coronavirus testing czar, told reporters the guidelines ultimately belong to the C.D.C., specifically its director, Dr. Robert Redfield. But he also said other members of President Trump’s coronavirus task force were involved.

“Let me tell you right up front that the new guidelines are a C.D.C. action,” Dr. Giroir said. “As always, guidelines received appropriate attention, consultation and input from task force experts — and I mean the medical and scientific experts — including C.D.C. director Redfield and myself.”"
Lady Jayne SmithModerator
Forum Administrator

08/26/2020 05:12 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
bump
Fate whispers to the warrior

"You cannot withstand the storm"

the warrior whispers back

"I am the storm"

INTJ-A

Killer Bunny
Guythu

User ID: 76473764
United States
08/26/2020 06:18 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
France, another 4,897 new cases...on a Sunday. Last Sunday, they had 3,065 new cases. That is an increase of 60%.

Italy, an increase of 150% compared to last Sunday.

Numbers are deceiving, especially since it compares 2 Sunday, just a week away from each other.

But if we do it with more weeks back, it's going to point out to a clear trend.



Looks like everything is going to happen as expected and predicted : Europe will have the second wave established by end of August, and September will see massive (about twice as much compared to March) increase in cases, followed by hospitalizations and ICU usage by the end of September, thanks to our dear leaders being set on opening the schools.


October is going to be decision time : full lock-down, for 4+ months, or we are going to be decimated before January.


Decimated as in 10% of the population dead (about 3-4%) + hospitalized (about 5-6%) + disabled for months ( about 1-2%), due to long term effects.


We will be very close to societal collapse...either way.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


DR-
Is there a point when locking down cannot stop it?
 Quoting: Guythu



Lock-downs will always stop it.


However, there is a theoretical point where lock-down effects will be limited, and it will take many months of lock-down before those effects will be significant enough to stop the spread of the virus.


I believe that that point is going to be (depending on the country) 6 to 8 weeks of schools being open.


Any country that is going to have their schools open for 8 straight weeks, will suffer greatly, and a lock-down will have to last 4-5 months, before the pandemic will be brought under control.


But 4-5 months of lock-down is economic suicide. No one will do it.



So, what we are facing now is pretty simple, I believe : if schools will stay open in September and October, the number of sick people (sick, as in needing hospitalization) is going to be massive.



I really don't see a way out, if schools will be open all the way through October. Lock-down or not, after, won't matter.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Thanks DR.
Leonero

User ID: 79309019
Italy
08/27/2020 02:37 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF PANDEMIC IN ITALY

[link to www.ansa.it (secure)]

A new total lockdown seems to be ruled out at the moment and, without a complete and rigid closure like the one taken on March 9th, there are three scenarios that Italy could face next autumn. To trace them, in an interview with ANSA, is Ranieri Guerra, deputy director of the World Health Organization (WHO) and member of the Technical-Scientific Committee. "A global lockdown is out of the question," he notes; "it is not foreseen because it would cause harm without giving benefits".
[...]
The first is the most optimistic, with a "very slow and constant increase in cases, not necessarily linked to an increase in patients".

[...]
The second scenario, more complex and perhaps the most plausible, foresees that with the autumn and the reopening of schools and the greater use of public transport, a sort of "short circuit between schools and families" can be created which could lead to " a further increase in cases, hopefully contained "

[...]
The third scenario is definitely the worst: it is the one in which the situation could get out of hand, with "an increase in cases such that in the territory it would no longer be possible to make adequate diagnosis and tracking" also due to "an increase in hospitalizations.

Last Edited by Leonero on 08/27/2020 02:39 AM
Ad Omnia Paratus
The Gathering Storm

User ID: 76645858
United Kingdom
08/27/2020 06:14 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF PANDEMIC IN ITALY

[link to www.ansa.it (secure)]

A new total lockdown seems to be ruled out at the moment and, without a complete and rigid closure like the one taken on March 9th, there are three scenarios that Italy could face next autumn. To trace them, in an interview with ANSA, is Ranieri Guerra, deputy director of the World Health Organization (WHO) and member of the Technical-Scientific Committee. "A global lockdown is out of the question," he notes; "it is not foreseen because it would cause harm without giving benefits".
[...]
The first is the most optimistic, with a "very slow and constant increase in cases, not necessarily linked to an increase in patients".

[...]
The second scenario, more complex and perhaps the most plausible, foresees that with the autumn and the reopening of schools and the greater use of public transport, a sort of "short circuit between schools and families" can be created which could lead to " a further increase in cases, hopefully contained "

[...]
The third scenario is definitely the worst: it is the one in which the situation could get out of hand, with "an increase in cases such that in the territory it would no longer be possible to make adequate diagnosis and tracking" also due to "an increase in hospitalizations.
 Quoting: Leonero


The third one is the most likely for every country eventually.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79294249
Belgium
08/27/2020 06:23 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
These were the highlights of my last update on July 15th :


-expecting the pandemic to grow significantly in the U.S. between mid July to beginning of August (last 2 weeks of July and first week of August), compared to the previous 3 weeks.




-expecting the second wave to start in Europe between mid to end of July.

-expecting 16 epicenters to be formed in Europe by the end of August.



...

 Quoting: deplorable recollector

You were correct. Norway has declared Belgium as a red zone.
In Belgium, the Antwerp region is one huge hotspot and has been for several weeks now.

The second wave started in Belgium around mid-July, probably a few days earlier.

And this all the warnings and regulations notwithstanding.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79294249
Belgium
08/27/2020 06:34 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Same for Europe.


Now, masks DO NOT STOP the pandemic, and have only a limited effect on slowing it down. The best example is Japan. Those guys wear masks all the time, and helped them in the Spring, but now, Japan is seeing a serious surge in cases, despite mask wearing.


Masks do one thing, and it is a pretty damn important one : decrease the level of viral loads in case of exposure.
...
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

You have to ask yourself where those sudden surges in Japan are coming from. Those are a rather strange phenomenon, precisely because the japanese are and were a very disciplied nation who carefully avoided the pandemic as well as they could. One possibility is pockets of groups of people intentionally spreading it.
Leonero

User ID: 79311823
Italy
08/27/2020 11:53 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
UPDATES FROM ITALY


+ 1411 new positive cases

+ 5 deaths

- 2 ICU (updated total is: 67 patients in ICU)

+ 76 patients hospitalized with symptoms not treatable at home (updated total is: 1131 patients currently hospitalized)

+ 225 "recovered"

Sources:
[link to www.quotidiano.net (secure)]

[link to www.repubblica.it (secure)]

Last Edited by Leonero on 08/27/2020 11:55 AM
Ad Omnia Paratus
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 76473764
United States
08/27/2020 12:36 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Italian Prime Minister Rejects Idea of Second Lockdown
[link to hardcoreitalians.blog (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78576165
United States
08/27/2020 12:48 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Italian Prime Minister Rejects Idea of Second Lockdown
[link to hardcoreitalians.blog (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76473764


This will be the running theme for all countries. Let the band aid rip all at once. Full Sweden.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79310691
United States
08/27/2020 04:37 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Italian Prime Minister Rejects Idea of Second Lockdown
[link to hardcoreitalians.blog (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76473764


This will be the running theme for all countries. Let the band aid rip all at once. Full Sweden.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78576165


But that is a misunderstanding, that Sweden has carried on as if life is normal. The majority of Swedish live in single households, they have better healthcare than the US, they have restricted some commerce and people have voluntarily locked themselves down.
Leonero

User ID: 79314120
Italy
08/27/2020 09:51 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Italian Prime Minister Rejects Idea of Second Lockdown
[link to hardcoreitalians.blog (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76473764


True. I confirm your piece of info.
The "Scientific Committee" too rejects the idea of a second lockdown.
Everyone say that priority is to open schools and that a spike in positive cases is expected and that Healthcare System is perfectly ready to face the second wave...
Ad Omnia Paratus
Red Hot Chilean Pepe

User ID: 76933812
Chile
08/27/2020 10:40 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Italian Prime Minister Rejects Idea of Second Lockdown
[link to hardcoreitalians.blog (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76473764


True. I confirm your piece of info.
The "Scientific Committee" too rejects the idea of a second lockdown.
Everyone say that priority is to open schools and that a spike in positive cases is expected and that Healthcare System is perfectly ready to face the second wave...
 Quoting: Leonero


This is going to backfire, most probably. Let's hope something miracolous happens.
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
G.B.S.

GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain.
Leonero

User ID: 79314120
Italy
08/28/2020 06:18 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Italian Prime Minister Rejects Idea of Second Lockdown
[link to hardcoreitalians.blog (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76473764


True. I confirm your piece of info.
The "Scientific Committee" too rejects the idea of a second lockdown.
Everyone say that priority is to open schools and that a spike in positive cases is expected and that Healthcare System is perfectly ready to face the second wave...
 Quoting: Leonero


This is going to backfire, most probably. Let's hope something miracolous happens.
 Quoting: Red Hot Chilean Pepe



Of course it will backfire.
I still don't understand if
Italian politics have knowledge of what will happen but still want to try to "restart" the economy and the social system as pre-pandemic...
Or they already know that a lockdown will be necessary but don't publicly admit it to avoid social unrest.
Ad Omnia Paratus
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 70318537
08/28/2020 06:36 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Italian Prime Minister Rejects Idea of Second Lockdown
[link to hardcoreitalians.blog (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76473764


True. I confirm your piece of info.
The "Scientific Committee" too rejects the idea of a second lockdown.
Everyone say that priority is to open schools and that a spike in positive cases is expected and that Healthcare System is perfectly ready to face the second wave...
 Quoting: Leonero


This is going to backfire, most probably. Let's hope something miracolous happens.
 Quoting: Red Hot Chilean Pepe



Of course it will backfire.
I still don't understand if
Italian politics have knowledge of what will happen but still want to try to "restart" the economy and the social system as pre-pandemic...
Or they already know that a lockdown will be necessary but don't publicly admit it to avoid social unrest.
 Quoting: Leonero


I think its a under bias of hope thats pushing. The desire to go back to normal..

And in the back of the mind they know they have to shut down.

To remove all hope would cause the economy to free fall.

HOPE is what keeps economys going. All economys are built on HOPE.
They HOPE to make a profit HOPE they can expand HOPE they can get bigger.

Its the fundamental of the economy and humans.

Remove all HOPE and soical fabric implodes.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79315276
Italy
08/28/2020 08:40 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
...


True. I confirm your piece of info.
The "Scientific Committee" too rejects the idea of a second lockdown.
Everyone say that priority is to open schools and that a spike in positive cases is expected and that Healthcare System is perfectly ready to face the second wave...
 Quoting: Leonero


This is going to backfire, most probably. Let's hope something miracolous happens.
 Quoting: Red Hot Chilean Pepe



Of course it will backfire.
I still don't understand if
Italian politics have knowledge of what will happen but still want to try to "restart" the economy and the social system as pre-pandemic...
Or they already know that a lockdown will be necessary but don't publicly admit it to avoid social unrest.
 Quoting: Leonero


I think its a under bias of hope thats pushing. The desire to go back to normal..

And in the back of the mind they know they have to shut down.

To remove all hope would cause the economy to free fall.

HOPE is what keeps economys going. All economys are built on HOPE.
They HOPE to make a profit HOPE they can expand HOPE they can get bigger.

Its the fundamental of the economy and humans.

Remove all HOPE and soical fabric implodes.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70318537


Fun fact: the name of Italian heath minister is Speranza, translated into English means "hope"
Leonero

User ID: 79314120
Italy
08/28/2020 11:53 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
UPDATES FROM ITALY


+ 1462 new positive cases:

+ 9 deaths

+ 7 ICU (updated total is: 74 patients currently in ICU)

+ 47 patients hospitalized with symptoms. (updated total is: 1178 patients currently hospitalized)

+ 348 recovered

Source:
[link to www.repubblica.it (secure)]


Interesting (and worrying) to see that hospitalizations and ICU are slowly growing day by day...
Ad Omnia Paratus
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 70314244
Germany
08/28/2020 04:27 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Spain has reported 7400 cases today. Health ministry has mentioned "exponential growth".
Leonero

User ID: 79316007
Italy
08/28/2020 05:52 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Spain has reported 7400 cases today. Health ministry has mentioned "exponential growth".
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70314244


Info is correct but it is referred to France, not Spain.

I also want to add a piece of info about it.
Macron stated: "I do not totally rule out a new lockdown, but we will do everything to prevent it."

[link to www.tgcom24.mediaset.it (secure)]
Ad Omnia Paratus
ParamedicUK

User ID: 79301602
United Kingdom
08/28/2020 07:41 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
DR thanks for your regular updates and feedback.

What are your thoughts on T-cell immunity which is being discussed as a possible saviour for this Pandemic?

Some sources are suggesting the 50% of the population may be immune to or able to fend off COVID-19 easily as the sequencing of the virus is so similar to other human coronaviruses to which we already have strong T-cell immunity.

For example...
[link to www.nature.com (secure)]

This may mean we are much closer to herd immunity levels?

Last Edited by ParamedicUK on 08/28/2020 07:41 PM
Herd immunity and vaccine free is the only way……

Peace not War.





GLP