WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month | |
Lady Jayne Smith
Forum Administrator 08/25/2020 02:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | We just secured and evacuataed our beach house on Galveston Island. Mandatory evac order. As we were driving out, we saw 3 school buses full of people on the bridge. This could add to an uptick in cases in South Texas, and Southwest Louisiana if people pack into evac centers, and/or are transported packed into buses. Last Edited by LJS on 08/25/2020 02:04 PM Fate whispers to the warrior "You cannot withstand the storm" the warrior whispers back "I am the storm" INTJ-A |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 77858655 United Kingdom 08/25/2020 02:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | UPDATES FROM ITALY Quoting: Leonero + 1210 new positive cases + 7 deaths + 47 hospitalizations + 5 ICU + 883 in quarantine (at home / people with mild symptoms who doesn't need hospitalization) + 267 "recovered" (patients free from home quarantine/hospitalization that now have been tested negative) 1,210...on a Sunday? Pfff...not good. I was expecting 1,400-1,500 /day at end of the month, I guess it will be more then that. Seems that there are too many clusters that escaped detection. Again, an increase in numbers, without a major outbreak, just many smaller ones. This could go both ways, but if the numbers will keep rising for the next week, I fear that Italy will face a much dire situation then Spain, with potentially tens (possible 100+) of localized outbreaks, before schools open, that they won't be able to control. in other words only 47 sick people in the whole of Italy. FFS.. i wonder how many are also like 90 years old. |
SWOOPSTER
User ID: 76699386 United States 08/25/2020 04:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hello everyone. Quoting: Lady Jayne Smith We just secured and evacuataed our beach house on Galveston Island. Mandatory evac order. As we were driving out, we saw 3 school buses full of people on the bridge. This could add to an uptick in cases in South Texas, and Southwest Louisiana if people pack into evac centers, and/or are transported packed into buses. Be safe and avoid the crowds. Schools, "Germ Pools", just opened up here last week. Waiting for the numbers to start climbing rapidly. ~S~ |
Leonero
User ID: 79305368 Italy 08/25/2020 04:36 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | UPDATES FROM ITALY Quoting: Leonero + 1210 new positive cases + 7 deaths + 47 hospitalizations + 5 ICU + 883 in quarantine (at home / people with mild symptoms who doesn't need hospitalization) + 267 "recovered" (patients free from home quarantine/hospitalization that now have been tested negative) 1,210...on a Sunday? Pfff...not good. I was expecting 1,400-1,500 /day at end of the month, I guess it will be more then that. Seems that there are too many clusters that escaped detection. Again, an increase in numbers, without a major outbreak, just many smaller ones. This could go both ways, but if the numbers will keep rising for the next week, I fear that Italy will face a much dire situation then Spain, with potentially tens (possible 100+) of localized outbreaks, before schools open, that they won't be able to control. in other words only 47 sick people in the whole of Italy. FFS.. i wonder how many are also like 90 years old. Nope A total of: 971 patients currently hospitalized 69 patients currently in ICU (at the time when I posted the update) [link to tg24.sky.it (secure)] Ad Omnia Paratus |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79304665 United Kingdom 08/25/2020 04:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | A 75-year-old woman from Nottingham is thought to be the first person to have contracted #COVID19 from within the UK. Research from @UniofNottingham also suggests it could have been widely circulating in early Feb.” [link to twitter.com (secure)] From the article... Before she died after falling ill with the virus, the woman had provided a test sample while in hospital with severe breathing difficulties as early as February 21. The study, which is yet to be peer-reviewed, states the woman - 'Patient 1' - is likely the very first community recorded case in the country. The preliminary study also revealed DNA sequencing showed there had been multiple bouts of the virus which had been introduced into the region before wide-scale testing was introduced. These results are therefore suggesting the virus was actually already circulating in local communities in the UK in early February and into March, and was undetected because of restrictive case definitions that informed testing policy at the time. |
The Gathering Storm
User ID: 76645858 United Kingdom 08/26/2020 06:02 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to www.bloomberg.com (secure)] |
UKguy User ID: 79303641 United Kingdom 08/26/2020 08:46 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to www.google.co.uk (secure)] Kids over 12 to wear masks at school in UK in yet another U Turn policy |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79307398 Italy 08/26/2020 11:40 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Chart cases in Italy [link to www.meteoweb.eu] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79299436 United States 08/26/2020 03:48 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79299436 United States 08/26/2020 03:48 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | When you want the numbers to disappear, tell the CDC to stop testing. America, land of the lost. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79299436 USE-FULL-LINK-UtWuq6BMM0?amp=1 In a shift that perplexed some doctors, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has changed its Covid-19 testing guidelines to say some people without symptoms may not need to be tested, even if they've been in close contact with someone known to have the virus. Previously, the CDC said viral testing was appropriate for people with recent or suspected exposure, even if they were asymptomatic. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79299436 United States 08/26/2020 04:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | "The C.D.C. was pressured to change guidance on testing asymptomatic people who had been exposed to the virus. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was instructed by higher-ups within the Trump administration to modify its coronavirus testing guidelines this week to exclude people who do not have symptoms of Covid-19 — even if they have been recently exposed to the virus, according to two federal health officials. One official said the directive came from the top down. Another said the guidelines were not written by the C.D.C. but were imposed. Admiral Brett M. Giroir, the administration’s coronavirus testing czar, told reporters the guidelines ultimately belong to the C.D.C., specifically its director, Dr. Robert Redfield. But he also said other members of President Trump’s coronavirus task force were involved. “Let me tell you right up front that the new guidelines are a C.D.C. action,” Dr. Giroir said. “As always, guidelines received appropriate attention, consultation and input from task force experts — and I mean the medical and scientific experts — including C.D.C. director Redfield and myself.”" |
Lady Jayne Smith
Forum Administrator 08/26/2020 05:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Guythu
User ID: 76473764 United States 08/26/2020 06:18 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | France, another 4,897 new cases...on a Sunday. Last Sunday, they had 3,065 new cases. That is an increase of 60%. Quoting: deplorable recollector Italy, an increase of 150% compared to last Sunday. Numbers are deceiving, especially since it compares 2 Sunday, just a week away from each other. But if we do it with more weeks back, it's going to point out to a clear trend. Looks like everything is going to happen as expected and predicted : Europe will have the second wave established by end of August, and September will see massive (about twice as much compared to March) increase in cases, followed by hospitalizations and ICU usage by the end of September, thanks to our dear leaders being set on opening the schools. October is going to be decision time : full lock-down, for 4+ months, or we are going to be decimated before January. Decimated as in 10% of the population dead (about 3-4%) + hospitalized (about 5-6%) + disabled for months ( about 1-2%), due to long term effects. We will be very close to societal collapse...either way. DR- Is there a point when locking down cannot stop it? Lock-downs will always stop it. However, there is a theoretical point where lock-down effects will be limited, and it will take many months of lock-down before those effects will be significant enough to stop the spread of the virus. I believe that that point is going to be (depending on the country) 6 to 8 weeks of schools being open. Any country that is going to have their schools open for 8 straight weeks, will suffer greatly, and a lock-down will have to last 4-5 months, before the pandemic will be brought under control. But 4-5 months of lock-down is economic suicide. No one will do it. So, what we are facing now is pretty simple, I believe : if schools will stay open in September and October, the number of sick people (sick, as in needing hospitalization) is going to be massive. I really don't see a way out, if schools will be open all the way through October. Lock-down or not, after, won't matter. Thanks DR. |
Leonero
User ID: 79309019 Italy 08/27/2020 02:37 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF PANDEMIC IN ITALY [link to www.ansa.it (secure)] A new total lockdown seems to be ruled out at the moment and, without a complete and rigid closure like the one taken on March 9th, there are three scenarios that Italy could face next autumn. To trace them, in an interview with ANSA, is Ranieri Guerra, deputy director of the World Health Organization (WHO) and member of the Technical-Scientific Committee. "A global lockdown is out of the question," he notes; "it is not foreseen because it would cause harm without giving benefits". [...] The first is the most optimistic, with a "very slow and constant increase in cases, not necessarily linked to an increase in patients". [...] The second scenario, more complex and perhaps the most plausible, foresees that with the autumn and the reopening of schools and the greater use of public transport, a sort of "short circuit between schools and families" can be created which could lead to " a further increase in cases, hopefully contained " [...] The third scenario is definitely the worst: it is the one in which the situation could get out of hand, with "an increase in cases such that in the territory it would no longer be possible to make adequate diagnosis and tracking" also due to "an increase in hospitalizations. Last Edited by Leonero on 08/27/2020 02:39 AM Ad Omnia Paratus |
The Gathering Storm
User ID: 76645858 United Kingdom 08/27/2020 06:14 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF PANDEMIC IN ITALY Quoting: Leonero [link to www.ansa.it (secure)] A new total lockdown seems to be ruled out at the moment and, without a complete and rigid closure like the one taken on March 9th, there are three scenarios that Italy could face next autumn. To trace them, in an interview with ANSA, is Ranieri Guerra, deputy director of the World Health Organization (WHO) and member of the Technical-Scientific Committee. "A global lockdown is out of the question," he notes; "it is not foreseen because it would cause harm without giving benefits". [...] The first is the most optimistic, with a "very slow and constant increase in cases, not necessarily linked to an increase in patients". [...] The second scenario, more complex and perhaps the most plausible, foresees that with the autumn and the reopening of schools and the greater use of public transport, a sort of "short circuit between schools and families" can be created which could lead to " a further increase in cases, hopefully contained " [...] The third scenario is definitely the worst: it is the one in which the situation could get out of hand, with "an increase in cases such that in the territory it would no longer be possible to make adequate diagnosis and tracking" also due to "an increase in hospitalizations. The third one is the most likely for every country eventually. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79294249 Belgium 08/27/2020 06:23 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | These were the highlights of my last update on July 15th : Quoting: deplorable recollector -expecting the pandemic to grow significantly in the U.S. between mid July to beginning of August (last 2 weeks of July and first week of August), compared to the previous 3 weeks. -expecting the second wave to start in Europe between mid to end of July. -expecting 16 epicenters to be formed in Europe by the end of August. ... You were correct. Norway has declared Belgium as a red zone. In Belgium, the Antwerp region is one huge hotspot and has been for several weeks now. The second wave started in Belgium around mid-July, probably a few days earlier. And this all the warnings and regulations notwithstanding. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79294249 Belgium 08/27/2020 06:34 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Same for Europe. Quoting: deplorable recollector Now, masks DO NOT STOP the pandemic, and have only a limited effect on slowing it down. The best example is Japan. Those guys wear masks all the time, and helped them in the Spring, but now, Japan is seeing a serious surge in cases, despite mask wearing. Masks do one thing, and it is a pretty damn important one : decrease the level of viral loads in case of exposure. ... You have to ask yourself where those sudden surges in Japan are coming from. Those are a rather strange phenomenon, precisely because the japanese are and were a very disciplied nation who carefully avoided the pandemic as well as they could. One possibility is pockets of groups of people intentionally spreading it. |
Leonero
User ID: 79311823 Italy 08/27/2020 11:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | UPDATES FROM ITALY + 1411 new positive cases + 5 deaths - 2 ICU (updated total is: 67 patients in ICU) + 76 patients hospitalized with symptoms not treatable at home (updated total is: 1131 patients currently hospitalized) + 225 "recovered" Sources: [link to www.quotidiano.net (secure)] [link to www.repubblica.it (secure)] Last Edited by Leonero on 08/27/2020 11:55 AM Ad Omnia Paratus |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 76473764 United States 08/27/2020 12:36 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Italian Prime Minister Rejects Idea of Second Lockdown [link to hardcoreitalians.blog (secure)] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78576165 United States 08/27/2020 12:48 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79310691 United States 08/27/2020 04:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This will be the running theme for all countries. Let the band aid rip all at once. Full Sweden. But that is a misunderstanding, that Sweden has carried on as if life is normal. The majority of Swedish live in single households, they have better healthcare than the US, they have restricted some commerce and people have voluntarily locked themselves down. |
Leonero
User ID: 79314120 Italy 08/27/2020 09:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | True. I confirm your piece of info. The "Scientific Committee" too rejects the idea of a second lockdown. Everyone say that priority is to open schools and that a spike in positive cases is expected and that Healthcare System is perfectly ready to face the second wave... Ad Omnia Paratus |
Red Hot Chilean Pepe
User ID: 76933812 Chile 08/27/2020 10:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | True. I confirm your piece of info. The "Scientific Committee" too rejects the idea of a second lockdown. Everyone say that priority is to open schools and that a spike in positive cases is expected and that Healthcare System is perfectly ready to face the second wave... This is going to backfire, most probably. Let's hope something miracolous happens. All great truths begin as Blasphemies. G.B.S. GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain. |
Leonero
User ID: 79314120 Italy 08/28/2020 06:18 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | True. I confirm your piece of info. The "Scientific Committee" too rejects the idea of a second lockdown. Everyone say that priority is to open schools and that a spike in positive cases is expected and that Healthcare System is perfectly ready to face the second wave... This is going to backfire, most probably. Let's hope something miracolous happens. Of course it will backfire. I still don't understand if Italian politics have knowledge of what will happen but still want to try to "restart" the economy and the social system as pre-pandemic... Or they already know that a lockdown will be necessary but don't publicly admit it to avoid social unrest. Ad Omnia Paratus |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 70318537 08/28/2020 06:36 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | True. I confirm your piece of info. The "Scientific Committee" too rejects the idea of a second lockdown. Everyone say that priority is to open schools and that a spike in positive cases is expected and that Healthcare System is perfectly ready to face the second wave... This is going to backfire, most probably. Let's hope something miracolous happens. Of course it will backfire. I still don't understand if Italian politics have knowledge of what will happen but still want to try to "restart" the economy and the social system as pre-pandemic... Or they already know that a lockdown will be necessary but don't publicly admit it to avoid social unrest. I think its a under bias of hope thats pushing. The desire to go back to normal.. And in the back of the mind they know they have to shut down. To remove all hope would cause the economy to free fall. HOPE is what keeps economys going. All economys are built on HOPE. They HOPE to make a profit HOPE they can expand HOPE they can get bigger. Its the fundamental of the economy and humans. Remove all HOPE and soical fabric implodes. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79315276 Italy 08/28/2020 08:40 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: Leonero True. I confirm your piece of info. The "Scientific Committee" too rejects the idea of a second lockdown. Everyone say that priority is to open schools and that a spike in positive cases is expected and that Healthcare System is perfectly ready to face the second wave... This is going to backfire, most probably. Let's hope something miracolous happens. Of course it will backfire. I still don't understand if Italian politics have knowledge of what will happen but still want to try to "restart" the economy and the social system as pre-pandemic... Or they already know that a lockdown will be necessary but don't publicly admit it to avoid social unrest. I think its a under bias of hope thats pushing. The desire to go back to normal.. And in the back of the mind they know they have to shut down. To remove all hope would cause the economy to free fall. HOPE is what keeps economys going. All economys are built on HOPE. They HOPE to make a profit HOPE they can expand HOPE they can get bigger. Its the fundamental of the economy and humans. Remove all HOPE and soical fabric implodes. Fun fact: the name of Italian heath minister is Speranza, translated into English means "hope" |
Leonero
User ID: 79314120 Italy 08/28/2020 11:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | UPDATES FROM ITALY + 1462 new positive cases: + 9 deaths + 7 ICU (updated total is: 74 patients currently in ICU) + 47 patients hospitalized with symptoms. (updated total is: 1178 patients currently hospitalized) + 348 recovered Source: [link to www.repubblica.it (secure)] Interesting (and worrying) to see that hospitalizations and ICU are slowly growing day by day... Ad Omnia Paratus |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 70314244 Germany 08/28/2020 04:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Leonero
User ID: 79316007 Italy 08/28/2020 05:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Spain has reported 7400 cases today. Health ministry has mentioned "exponential growth". Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70314244 Info is correct but it is referred to France, not Spain. I also want to add a piece of info about it. Macron stated: "I do not totally rule out a new lockdown, but we will do everything to prevent it." [link to www.tgcom24.mediaset.it (secure)] Ad Omnia Paratus |
ParamedicUK
User ID: 79301602 United Kingdom 08/28/2020 07:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | DR thanks for your regular updates and feedback. What are your thoughts on T-cell immunity which is being discussed as a possible saviour for this Pandemic? Some sources are suggesting the 50% of the population may be immune to or able to fend off COVID-19 easily as the sequencing of the virus is so similar to other human coronaviruses to which we already have strong T-cell immunity. For example... [link to www.nature.com (secure)] This may mean we are much closer to herd immunity levels? Last Edited by ParamedicUK on 08/28/2020 07:41 PM Herd immunity and vaccine free is the only way…… Peace not War. |