Coronavirus: Winter plans revealed in leaked Sage report

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The model attempts to calculate excess deaths in England and Wales between July 2020 to March 2021. These are deaths over and above what would normally be expected during that period and are based on ONS data.

The model has been adjusted to account for people who would have been expected to die because they have other illnesses.
It said in England and Wales there could be 81,000 excess deaths due to Covid, plus 27,000 excess deaths from non-Covid causes.
In Scotland there could be 2,600 direct Covid deaths, and 1,900 in Northern Ireland.

In addition to excess deaths, the model also suggests how many people may need hospital treatment between November and March, including intensive care.

The figures, which the scientists say have a wide range of uncertainty, suggest around 2.4% of infected people could be hospitalised (range: 0.0%-8.9%) with 20.5% of hospitalised patients going into ICU (range: 1.5% - 35.25) and 23.3% (range: 1.2% - 43.3%) of all hospitalised patients dying.

The model also predicts an overall infection fatality ratio of 0.7% (0.0% - 9.7%).