WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month | |
deplorable recollector
(OP) User ID: 73110508 United Kingdom 09/08/2020 03:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
deplorable recollector
(OP) User ID: 73110508 United Kingdom 09/08/2020 03:24 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thanks for the Update, have been following your posts and they have been spot on. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 43245883 I also expect the government bodies to be hesitant to lock down or close schools. I northern Germany schools have been open for some weeks, but we have started from a very low baseline of infections. This will change. Schools in southern Germany are opening up this week, but with many more infections in the background. When you say crisis in November, can you specifiy? Do you personally expect a Mad-Max-like situation? What are you doing/recommend to prepare? Thanks! I am an extremely patient man. Things are unfolding (for now) as I was expecting them to unfold. The crisis will be the outcome of what will be decided in October : second round of lock-downs or not. Highly likely no second lock-down in October, unless the pandemic is worse then I expect it to be. Most people don't understand the economic side of a medical crisis. It can well surpass, in expenses, the losses from a lock-down, and that is not even counting the humanitarian crisis from a "constipated" or overwhelmed healthcare system. People that go to hospital, insurance or not, have the same expenses. Someone (meaning us, the people) is paying for those expenses : medication, energy, cleaning, disinfection, healthcare staff wages, etc. If we will have too many patients, those expenses will skyrocket, and to be able to support those expenses, taxes will have to be risen, or other expenses to be moved from other sectors, to healthcare. And this means job losses, because nobody will cut their profits or wages. In a 3 times higher 2nd wave conditions, such expenses can reach 10% of the GDP of a country. If it's a bigger 2nd wave...well, lock-downs become cheaper. The crisis will be both medical and economical, doesn't matter if second lock-down comes or not, and the job losses will be similar in any scenario. A mad-max scenario is on the cards, and atm is pretty mush on top 3 of the outcomes of the second wave. By mid-October, it will be clear if a mad-max scenario is still possible. |
Oscanator
User ID: 78507509 United States 09/08/2020 03:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thanks for the Update, have been following your posts and they have been spot on. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 43245883 I also expect the government bodies to be hesitant to lock down or close schools. I northern Germany schools have been open for some weeks, but we have started from a very low baseline of infections. This will change. Schools in southern Germany are opening up this week, but with many more infections in the background. When you say crisis in November, can you specifiy? Do you personally expect a Mad-Max-like situation? What are you doing/recommend to prepare? Thanks! I am an extremely patient man. Things are unfolding (for now) as I was expecting them to unfold. The crisis will be the outcome of what will be decided in October : second round of lock-downs or not. Highly likely no second lock-down in October, unless the pandemic is worse then I expect it to be. Most people don't understand the economic side of a medical crisis. It can well surpass, in expenses, the losses from a lock-down, and that is not even counting the humanitarian crisis from a "constipated" or overwhelmed healthcare system. People that go to hospital, insurance or not, have the same expenses. Someone (meaning us, the people) is paying for those expenses : medication, energy, cleaning, disinfection, healthcare staff wages, etc. If we will have too many patients, those expenses will skyrocket, and to be able to support those expenses, taxes will have to be risen, or other expenses to be moved from other sectors, to healthcare. And this means job losses, because nobody will cut their profits or wages. In a 3 times higher 2nd wave conditions, such expenses can reach 10% of the GDP of a country. If it's a bigger 2nd wave...well, lock-downs become cheaper. The crisis will be both medical and economical, doesn't matter if second lock-down comes or not, and the job losses will be similar in any scenario. A mad-max scenario is on the cards, and atm is pretty mush on top 3 of the outcomes of the second wave. By mid-October, it will be clear if a mad-max scenario is still possible. |
Leonero
User ID: 79355691 Italy 09/08/2020 05:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You’d be forgiven for thinking they want us to beg for lockdown at this point Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79345627 At this point, no. But after mid-October, well... This is completely true and believable from our perspective. (And you, DR, know how much I believe in your models and updates). But not from government's point of view... I try to explain my opinion: Media and politics (in my country, Italy) now are spreading a different message: "You (a common citizen) must learn how to live with this virus". This means, in other words, that the citizens must take in account all the risks about living a "normal" lifestyle... You (must) go to work? You (must) go to the supermarket? You (must) get on public transport? You (a simple, common citizen) take the risk... "economic circle" can't be interrupted anymore. Basically, you have no choice. You must act normally while taking in account the risk of being infected. That's why I am pretty sure that most of EU countries will rule out a new lockdown... Governments will try to let pandemic go on as long as they can and play "whack-a-mole" with the new clusters. Some businessmen also started to say that if an employee is tested positive but is "asymptomatic" or "pre-symptomatic", still have to work on remote because a positive test isn't enough to stop someone from doing his job. Ad Omnia Paratus |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79354563 Italy 09/08/2020 05:21 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | France has lowered quarantine period from 14 days to 7 days Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79354511 After 7 days the virus will not be infectious anymore Lockdown: ruled out Quarantine time: reduced to 7 days Schools: still opened Is France going to look after a complete disaster? I may sound sarcastic but... I really don't understand some politics choices... There is no evidence that people affected by Covid-19 are not infectious after 7 days... Even some italian virologists started to call "asymptomatic" as "pre-symptomatic" because no one still knows exactly how this virus behave in people with no visible symptoms and how it replicates in younger and "stronger" hosts. Italian Prime Minister, today: "Some countries are reflecting on the duration of the quarantine. If quarantine time could be reduced from 14 days to 7 days, we could reduce social and economic costs." |
UKguy User ID: 79345627 United Kingdom 09/08/2020 06:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to www.itv.com (secure)] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79354563 Italy 09/08/2020 06:57 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This newspaper article from "Repubblica" may explain certain behaviors [link to translate.google.it (secure)] |
SWOOPSTER
User ID: 76699386 United States 09/08/2020 11:10 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thanks for the Update, have been following your posts and they have been spot on. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 43245883 I also expect the government bodies to be hesitant to lock down or close schools. I northern Germany schools have been open for some weeks, but we have started from a very low baseline of infections. This will change. Schools in southern Germany are opening up this week, but with many more infections in the background. When you say crisis in November, can you specifiy? Do you personally expect a Mad-Max-like situation? What are you doing/recommend to prepare? Thanks! I am an extremely patient man. Things are unfolding (for now) as I was expecting them to unfold. The crisis will be the outcome of what will be decided in October : second round of lock-downs or not. Highly likely no second lock-down in October, unless the pandemic is worse then I expect it to be. Most people don't understand the economic side of a medical crisis. It can well surpass, in expenses, the losses from a lock-down, and that is not even counting the humanitarian crisis from a "constipated" or overwhelmed healthcare system. People that go to hospital, insurance or not, have the same expenses. Someone (meaning us, the people) is paying for those expenses : medication, energy, cleaning, disinfection, healthcare staff wages, etc. If we will have too many patients, those expenses will skyrocket, and to be able to support those expenses, taxes will have to be risen, or other expenses to be moved from other sectors, to healthcare. And this means job losses, because nobody will cut their profits or wages. In a 3 times higher 2nd wave conditions, such expenses can reach 10% of the GDP of a country. If it's a bigger 2nd wave...well, lock-downs become cheaper. The crisis will be both medical and economical, doesn't matter if second lock-down comes or not, and the job losses will be similar in any scenario. A mad-max scenario is on the cards, and atm is pretty mush on top 3 of the outcomes of the second wave. By mid-October, it will be clear if a mad-max scenario is still possible. ~S~ |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79318725 Australia 09/09/2020 06:56 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79358566 Italy 09/09/2020 11:19 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79359951 Czechia 09/09/2020 01:57 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | So far at what I call the halfway point, I’ve checked today and the reading is yet again higher than I’ve seen before. So in theory, in the morning when I check for the final count of the day. It should be higher than yesterday’s record. If it isn’t, it won’t be far from it. The rate seems to be running away now. Overnight after yesterday’s results, we now have to wear a mask in all indoor areas as far as I understand per the Mrs. It could be a canary in the coal mine here. Keep your eyes peeled. Can’t think where this will go in a month from now. We have entered new territory entirely! |
Lady Jayne Smith
Forum Administrator 09/09/2020 02:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
NawtyBits
User ID: 79043579 United States 09/09/2020 03:01 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to www.foxnews.com (secure)] Second wave of coronavirus may arrive in spring, not winter, one scientist says A Texas scientist predicts a second wave of coronavirus will occur in the spring and not the winter months. Professor Ben Neuman, chairman of biological sciences at Texas A&M University-Texarkana said coronaviruses commonly “peak” in the spring months, according to a Yahoo report. [snip] Neuman, also a visiting associate professor at the University of Reading, said experts are predicting the second wave for the winter months based on the flu virus which peaks in the winter. But Neuman said most viruses are not as seasonal as the influenza virus, according to the report. Comment: I don't think seasonality as much to do with it, as much as reopening schools and businesses. WWJBD-What Would Jimmy Buffett Do "If it's wet and not yours, don't touch it." Oregon H1N1 Summit speaker |
deplorable recollector
(OP) User ID: 73110508 United Kingdom 09/09/2020 04:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Guys, I need your help with information from your countries regarding hiring personal for emergency services. Romania is hiring, temporarily, without exam, for the duration of the pandemic (this is the official announcement), roughly 500 drivers and 500 other personal for emergency services. I don't know how emergency services in other countries are structured, but the ISU drivers in Romania are used (among other things) for transporting patients (supplementing ambulance services), including Covid-19 ones. This never happened before in Romania, hiring without exam and w/o any special skill related to emergency services and in all counties in same time. Another thing is that this started on Monday, and the deadline to apply for the jobs is September 13th, which means they need those jobs filled asap, and before October. I like to know if something similar is happening in your countries, because there is no way that only Romania is basically doubling their emergency services drivers all of a sudden. Thanks. Last Edited by Recollector on 09/09/2020 05:02 PM |
The Gathering Storm
User ID: 76645858 United Kingdom 09/09/2020 05:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to www.foxnews.com (secure)] Quoting: NawtyBits Second wave of coronavirus may arrive in spring, not winter, one scientist says A Texas scientist predicts a second wave of coronavirus will occur in the spring and not the winter months. Professor Ben Neuman, chairman of biological sciences at Texas A&M University-Texarkana said coronaviruses commonly “peak” in the spring months, according to a Yahoo report. [snip] Neuman, also a visiting associate professor at the University of Reading, said experts are predicting the second wave for the winter months based on the flu virus which peaks in the winter. But Neuman said most viruses are not as seasonal as the influenza virus, according to the report. Comment: I don't think seasonality as much to do with it, as much as reopening schools and businesses. Very likely. I believe what we are currently seeing is another surge of the first wave, with a second wave coming late 2020 early 2021. |
Red Hot Chilean Pepe
User ID: 76933812 Chile 09/09/2020 05:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Guys, I need your help with information from your countries regarding hiring personal for emergency services. Quoting: deplorable recollector Romania is hiring, temporarily, without exam, for the duration of the pandemic (this is the official announcement), roughly 500 drivers and 500 other personal for emergency services. I don't know how emergency services in other countries are structured, but the ISU drivers in Romania are used (among other things) for transporting patients (supplementing ambulance services), including Covid-19 ones. This never happened before in Romania, hiring without exam and w/o any special skill related to emergency services and in all counties in same time. Another thing is that this started on Monday, and the deadline to apply for the jobs is September 13th, which means they need those jobs filled asap, and before October. I like to know if something similar is happening in your countries, because there is no way that only Romania is basically doubling their emergency services drivers all of a sudden. Thanks. In Chile something similar happened months ago when numbers were still soaring before the lock down that took three months to get to more manageable numbers. Here the strategy was to repurpose hundreds of school bus drivers and their vans for this. It was a way to deal with both their unemployment and the hugely increased need for sick people transport. AFAIK this is still ongoing. Last Edited by Red Hot Chilean Pepe on 09/09/2020 05:20 PM All great truths begin as Blasphemies. G.B.S. GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain. |
deplorable recollector
(OP) User ID: 73110508 United Kingdom 09/09/2020 05:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to www.foxnews.com (secure)] Quoting: NawtyBits Second wave of coronavirus may arrive in spring, not winter, one scientist says A Texas scientist predicts a second wave of coronavirus will occur in the spring and not the winter months. Professor Ben Neuman, chairman of biological sciences at Texas A&M University-Texarkana said coronaviruses commonly “peak” in the spring months, according to a Yahoo report. [snip] Neuman, also a visiting associate professor at the University of Reading, said experts are predicting the second wave for the winter months based on the flu virus which peaks in the winter. But Neuman said most viruses are not as seasonal as the influenza virus, according to the report. Comment: I don't think seasonality as much to do with it, as much as reopening schools and businesses. Very likely. I believe what we are currently seeing is another surge of the first wave, with a second wave coming late 2020 early 2021. This is just semantics. A wave is nothing but a rise in cases, no matter when this is happening, seasonally or not. We are in the second wave already. We had a rise in cases in March, a drop between may and July, and now a rise again that started in August. If it looks like wave, and acts like a wave...it's a wave. Everything else is semantics. Last Edited by Recollector on 09/09/2020 09:05 PM |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78617260 Canada 09/10/2020 01:37 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Guys, I need your help with information from your countries regarding hiring personal for emergency services. Quoting: deplorable recollector Romania is hiring, temporarily, without exam, for the duration of the pandemic (this is the official announcement), roughly 500 drivers and 500 other personal for emergency services. I don't know how emergency services in other countries are structured, but the ISU drivers in Romania are used (among other things) for transporting patients (supplementing ambulance services), including Covid-19 ones. This never happened before in Romania, hiring without exam and w/o any special skill related to emergency services and in all counties in same time. Another thing is that this started on Monday, and the deadline to apply for the jobs is September 13th, which means they need those jobs filled asap, and before October. I like to know if something similar is happening in your countries, because there is no way that only Romania is basically doubling their emergency services drivers all of a sudden. Thanks. BC is hiring 1000's of Healthcare workers [link to globalnews.ca (secure)] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79361997 Italy 09/10/2020 01:51 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Guys, I need your help with information from your countries regarding hiring personal for emergency services. Quoting: deplorable recollector Romania is hiring, temporarily, without exam, for the duration of the pandemic (this is the official announcement), roughly 500 drivers and 500 other personal for emergency services. I don't know how emergency services in other countries are structured, but the ISU drivers in Romania are used (among other things) for transporting patients (supplementing ambulance services), including Covid-19 ones. This never happened before in Romania, hiring without exam and w/o any special skill related to emergency services and in all counties in same time. Another thing is that this started on Monday, and the deadline to apply for the jobs is September 13th, which means they need those jobs filled asap, and before October. I like to know if something similar is happening in your countries, because there is no way that only Romania is basically doubling their emergency services drivers all of a sudden. Thanks. In Italy nothing similar is happening. There has been a massive hiring of Healthcare personnel in March and April Perhaps in Romania there was a lack of personnel in emergency services... I wouldn't be surprised |
deplorable recollector
(OP) User ID: 73110508 United Kingdom 09/10/2020 01:33 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Guys, I need your help with information from your countries regarding hiring personal for emergency services. Quoting: deplorable recollector Romania is hiring, temporarily, without exam, for the duration of the pandemic (this is the official announcement), roughly 500 drivers and 500 other personal for emergency services. I don't know how emergency services in other countries are structured, but the ISU drivers in Romania are used (among other things) for transporting patients (supplementing ambulance services), including Covid-19 ones. This never happened before in Romania, hiring without exam and w/o any special skill related to emergency services and in all counties in same time. Another thing is that this started on Monday, and the deadline to apply for the jobs is September 13th, which means they need those jobs filled asap, and before October. I like to know if something similar is happening in your countries, because there is no way that only Romania is basically doubling their emergency services drivers all of a sudden. Thanks. In Italy nothing similar is happening. There has been a massive hiring of Healthcare personnel in March and April Perhaps in Romania there was a lack of personnel in emergency services... I wouldn't be surprised Nope, that isn't the case. It is a very sought job, with wages that are 2 to 3 times median wage in Romania. The timing (which is this week), the reason (temporary jobs for pandemic duration), the number of jobs, especially for drivers (500) and the fact that all counties are hiring is what is way out of the ordinary. Italy most likely filled their positions in March, and kept the people, so, no reasons to hire more. |
Leonero
User ID: 72590263 Italy 09/10/2020 01:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Guys, I need your help with information from your countries regarding hiring personal for emergency services. Quoting: deplorable recollector Romania is hiring, temporarily, without exam, for the duration of the pandemic (this is the official announcement), roughly 500 drivers and 500 other personal for emergency services. I don't know how emergency services in other countries are structured, but the ISU drivers in Romania are used (among other things) for transporting patients (supplementing ambulance services), including Covid-19 ones. This never happened before in Romania, hiring without exam and w/o any special skill related to emergency services and in all counties in same time. Another thing is that this started on Monday, and the deadline to apply for the jobs is September 13th, which means they need those jobs filled asap, and before October. I like to know if something similar is happening in your countries, because there is no way that only Romania is basically doubling their emergency services drivers all of a sudden. Thanks. It is something that is happening, in Italy, at a regional level. Latium region is looking for 500 (doctors + nursery personnel) to build up "anti-Covid" teams. These teams will work in schools. Job positions are opened to graduated personnel without experience too. Ad Omnia Paratus |
deplorable recollector
(OP) User ID: 73110508 United Kingdom 09/10/2020 01:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Not really. France today: 9,843. Spain today : 10,764. Still not worried. I will be when they have 12-13k cases/day...which should be next week probably. These are the numbers I expect the week to be in France and Spain, with 15k/day the week after next. Last Edited by Recollector on 09/10/2020 03:11 PM |
ParamedicUK
User ID: 34227953 United Kingdom 09/10/2020 01:49 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Guys, I need your help with information from your countries regarding hiring personal for emergency services. Quoting: deplorable recollector Romania is hiring, temporarily, without exam, for the duration of the pandemic (this is the official announcement), roughly 500 drivers and 500 other personal for emergency services. ... Thanks. DR. We still have all the large Nightingale hospitals waiting to be used. A lot of staff for these has been arranged from the airline companies who are not working. The government was paying for additional ambulances crewed with NHS Paramedics and Fire staff during the first wave. These have just been taken off-line but could easily be reinstated. Private companies are being heavily used at the moment - many more than usual. Ambulance trusts have set up Coronavirus Coordination Centres (CCCs) and will be in place till March 2021. The NHS has tracked down loads of newly retired staff and they can easily be instated. Herd immunity and vaccine free is the only way…… Peace not War. |
Vegz
User ID: 79147010 United States 09/11/2020 12:31 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Not really. France today: 9,843. Spain today : 10,764. Still not worried. I will be when they have 12-13k cases/day...which should be next week probably. These are the numbers I expect the week to be in France and Spain, with 15k/day the week after next. You can start your worrying a little early, DR... Spain +12,183 Last Edited by Vego on 09/11/2020 01:10 PM The bad news is nothing lasts forever. The good news is nothing lasts forever. |
deplorable recollector
(OP) User ID: 73110508 United Kingdom 09/11/2020 01:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Not really. France today: 9,843. Spain today : 10,764. Still not worried. I will be when they have 12-13k cases/day...which should be next week probably. These are the numbers I expect the week to be in France and Spain, with 15k/day the week after next. You can start your worrying a little early, DR... Spain +12,183 Friday is always the day with highest numbers. Sure, Spain have 12k+ today, and France will most likely have around 11k today. I am expecting this for today. However, I will worry when such numbers will be next week, on Tue, Wed, Thu and Friday. But it's not about France and Spain only. There are another 10 countries in Europe with spikes this week, 3 of them with massive spikes. The pandemic will grow in Europe, as I said since June. It will start in in the beginning of August, it will slowly build until end of August, it will grow significantly in the first half of September (all this already happened) and it will explode all over Europe in October. By mid-October, it will be decision time : lock-down or not. |
xBl4ckFir3x
User ID: 78218817 Argentina 09/11/2020 01:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
deplorable recollector
(OP) User ID: 73110508 United Kingdom 09/11/2020 02:39 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | DR do you think a MAD MAX scenario is still possible in all the world? If yes, when you think it will start? Quoting: xBl4ckFir3x Yes, it is still in the cards, and if certain things will take place by the end of October, a mad-max scenario will start by the end of this year. Those things are related to the evolution of the pandemic, a second hard lock-down and a destabilization of the U.S. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 69902066 09/11/2020 04:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | DR do you think a MAD MAX scenario is still possible in all the world? If yes, when you think it will start? Quoting: xBl4ckFir3x Yes, it is still in the cards, and if certain things will take place by the end of October, a mad-max scenario will start by the end of this year. Those things are related to the evolution of the pandemic, a second hard lock-down and a destabilization of the U.S. What factors need to happen for the mad max world? What are the key to this |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79360617 09/11/2020 04:15 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
deplorable recollector
(OP) User ID: 73110508 United Kingdom 09/11/2020 04:21 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | DR do you think a MAD MAX scenario is still possible in all the world? If yes, when you think it will start? Quoting: xBl4ckFir3x Yes, it is still in the cards, and if certain things will take place by the end of October, a mad-max scenario will start by the end of this year. Those things are related to the evolution of the pandemic, a second hard lock-down and a destabilization of the U.S. What factors need to happen for the mad max world? What are the key to this I will go into detail about this on October 11th. Atm, the situation is evolving as I am expecting it, but it must continue for another month, before I can be sure on the pandemic and / or lock-down half of the equation. The other side is a destabilization of the U.S., but this is not something that can be predicted. It might happen, or not, but if it will, it will be fast, in a matter of days. And there is another factor, which atm is unknown : food shortages. Many things have to converge, for a mad-max scenario to happen. Things will be much clearer around mid-October, for better or for worse. |