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Message Subject WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Poster Handle Oscanator
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Thanks for the Update, have been following your posts and they have been spot on.
I also expect the government bodies to be hesitant to lock down or close schools. I northern Germany schools have been open for some weeks, but we have started from a very low baseline of infections. This will change. Schools in southern Germany are opening up this week, but with many more infections in the background.

When you say crisis in November, can you specifiy? Do you personally expect a Mad-Max-like situation? What are you doing/recommend to prepare?
Thanks!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 43245883



I am an extremely patient man. Things are unfolding (for now) as I was expecting them to unfold.


The crisis will be the outcome of what will be decided in October : second round of lock-downs or not. Highly likely no second lock-down in October, unless the pandemic is worse then I expect it to be.


Most people don't understand the economic side of a medical crisis. It can well surpass, in expenses, the losses from a lock-down, and that is not even counting the humanitarian crisis from a "constipated" or overwhelmed healthcare system.

People that go to hospital, insurance or not, have the same expenses. Someone (meaning us, the people) is paying for those expenses : medication, energy, cleaning, disinfection, healthcare staff wages, etc.

If we will have too many patients, those expenses will skyrocket, and to be able to support those expenses, taxes will have to be risen, or other expenses to be moved from other sectors, to healthcare. And this means job losses, because nobody will cut their profits or wages.

In a 3 times higher 2nd wave conditions, such expenses can reach 10% of the GDP of a country. If it's a bigger 2nd wave...well, lock-downs become cheaper.



The crisis will be both medical and economical, doesn't matter if second lock-down comes or not, and the job losses will be similar in any scenario.


A mad-max scenario is on the cards, and atm is pretty mush on top 3 of the outcomes of the second wave.

By mid-October, it will be clear if a mad-max scenario is still possible.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


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