HOPE #2>

this 1 is interesting. i got word late last night that BUFFALO has Chinease students that returned from CHINA, some from WUHAN even. these students are showing signs of sickness and tests are inconclusive or not being reported truthfully to the public. some are in isolation. these ppl traveled to CHINA over the holidays. so they have been back in the US since just after New Years,Jan 1.the college resumed classes Jan 6th.

if that is true,we have ppl who were infected and contagious roaming around for a month and a half.i'll lowball these #'s conservatively. reality shoulod be much higher.

with a 2 week incubation and spread with 1 person getting 1 sick, 300 infected,about half of the students that went home.300 would be 300 others infected by Jan 15-20th.total 600, by Feb 3rd to the 8th that # would be 1200 infected. delay sickness 2 weeks, BUFFALO should show 1000+ sick ppl about now.since the RO is around 4, next week BUFFALO should show 4000 sick minimum and over 1000 2 wks ago.

at 15% being critical and needing extended hospital stay and treatment, BUFFALO would have 600 critcal patients in the ICU with a RO of 4 by next Friday. split between 3 hospitals that is minimum 100 critical patients now in each.

u would think that would start to overwhelm the ICU unit and cause some news to leak. we have only 1 person reporting there are cases in BUFFALO but not to this level.

why is this hope??? as u can see BUFFALO should have shown an epidemic already. these students returned early Jan. what has slowed down the spread? has the virus mutated so it is less severe now?

note mid jan there was a flu death of a child.flu cases are 7 times more than last year. this is slim hope and does need to be watched.