Why are the COVID-19 numbers OUTSIDE China, and even outside Hubei, SO LOW? Here is the simple answer.

All is a matter of LOGISTIC and AVAILABLE DATA!

Imagine for a while that NO action NOR information would be decided and spread from China since last december. The world would be totally unaware of such a novel coronavirus spreading everywhere and the cases would take a very long time to define the source, the nature of the desease and its effects on people. Dead numbers would be larger without explanations but none would really take care in the flu season.

Now, China has decided to take unprecedented decisions to lockdown whole cities, then whole provinces, and to daily declare a number of suspected people, infected people (serious or not) and dead from that covid-19.

What China first did is to concentrate all its means and medical personels in Wuhan, then in the Hubei province. In other words, its whole capacity to limit the coronavirus spreading was focused on a single spot where numbers were observable with dedicated people. But it was already too late.

Now, China can't do the same for the other provinces, hence erratic numbers from elsewhere. Given the unpreparedness and lack of means in other countries (see the Japan exemple with the Diamond Princess cruise ship), the other governments have not the least idea of the real numbers, EXCEPT THROUGH MATHEMATICAL MODELS!