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STATISTICIAN: “I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,”, “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”

 
Anonymous Coward
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02/19/2020 03:27 PM
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Re: STATISTICIAN: “I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,”, “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”
Uncle Travis doesn't like you ruining the narrative.

No one is to take the doom off and no one is to suggest the public do anything besides panic. Cant declare an emergency without some panic to blame it on.

Soon you'll be BannedForDays.
I'll see you when you come back.

Good topic though.
 Quoting: InBeforeTheLock 73559940


Uncle Travis needs help. Trying to turn little boys into little girls.
Maybe a train trip to a holiday resort will be a final solution for his ailment.
Anonymous Coward
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02/19/2020 03:29 PM
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Re: STATISTICIAN: “I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,”, “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”
Thats because its not coronavirus. More like anthrax or ricin
SomethingBetter

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02/19/2020 04:42 PM
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Re: STATISTICIAN: “I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,”, “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”
Commies lie? No....

hmm

I get a ban warning when using the name of this outlet so I'll try to work around it in the quotations.


From the article:


"China’s economic data have always been fraught. Now, all eyes are on the coronavirus numbers, which economists and investors are using to estimate the outbreak’s toll—and they are too perfect to mean much.

A statistical analysis of China’s coronavirus casualty data shows a near-perfect prediction model that data analysts say isn’t likely to naturally occur, casting doubt over the reliability of the numbers being reported to the World Health Organization. That’s aside from news on Thursday that health officials in the epicenter of the outbreak reported a surge in new infections after changing how they diagnose the illness."


Later in the article:


"&@##on’s re-created the regression analysis of total deaths caused by the virus, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year, and found similarly high variance. We ran it by Melody Goodman, associate professor of biostatistics at New York University’s School of Global Public Health.

“I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,” Goodman says. “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”

Real human data are never perfectly predictive when it comes to something like an epidemic, Goodman says, since there are countless ways that a person could come into contact with the virus.

For context, Goodman says a “really good” r-squared, in terms of public health data, would be a 0.7. “Anything like 0.99,” she said, “would make me think that someone is simulating data. It would mean you already know what is going to happen.”"

Less than 50%


[link to www.barrons.com (secure)]
 Quoting: BFD


Good find. CCP never has been truthful about this, and never will be. That's what has given rise to so many theories. The more they hide the worse it looks for them. Soon the whole world will hate China.
fivestars
monsterpropogandamonster
Anonymous Coward
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02/19/2020 04:55 PM
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Re: STATISTICIAN: “I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,”, “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”
I am not statistician, but I play one on LinkedIn. That said, I have had two courses in stats & a big data intor course, I'd agree .99 value for r is odd.
beeches

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02/19/2020 05:28 PM

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Re: STATISTICIAN: “I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,”, “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”
bump
Liberalism is totalitarianism with a human face – Thomas Sowell
Anonymous Coward
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02/19/2020 06:10 PM
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Re: STATISTICIAN: “I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,”, “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”
Yah they goal seek all their numbers to make you think everything is under control.
MostHolyFace

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02/19/2020 06:20 PM

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Re: STATISTICIAN: “I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,”, “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”
Hey this is an important thing the true maths and stats of this outbreak behind the spin.

I posted this a few days ago from that publication on a thread with multiple sources including the

OP's

Los Alamos

Multiple Universities Across the Globe

Fraud Investigators of the Financial Markets

etc all basically saying the same about the numbers

If anyone wants to see how the fraud investigator for the last 2 weeks has nailed each release of "dead" "infected" and posted it online days before, because he has proven it follows a quadratic equation have a look through this thread Here:

Thread: Los Alamos National Laboratory"The Novel Coronavirus is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated" (Page 13)

The 2% death rate is number chosen by propoganda of the CCP to keep track of and is proven mathematically.

If a company posted such profits, or shares took such gains loses etc or any figures released in to the market went on like this they would be closed down and investigated.

Just truth

You will never have that truith, on the actual numbers coming out of China, on the big scale, we do though have the medical records sourced by Loas Alamos from the hospitals for the clusters which can be interpreted as they are medical records and nothing else and extrapolated.

GodBless
Anonymous Coward
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02/19/2020 06:26 PM
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Re: STATISTICIAN: “I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,”, “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”
Hey this is an important thing the true maths and stats of this outbreak behind the spin.

I posted this a few days ago from that publication on a thread with multiple sources including the

OP's

Los Alamos

Multiple Universities Across the Globe

Fraud Investigators of the Financial Markets

etc all basically saying the same about the numbers

If anyone wants to see how the fraud investigator for the last 2 weeks has nailed each release of "dead" "infected" and posted it online days before, because he has proven it follows a quadratic equation have a look through this thread Here:

Thread: Los Alamos National Laboratory"The Novel Coronavirus is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated" (Page 13)

The 2% death rate is number chosen by propoganda of the CCP to keep track of and is proven mathematically.

If a company posted such profits, or shares took such gains loses etc or any figures released in to the market went on like this they would be closed down and investigated.

Just truth

You will never have that truith, on the actual numbers coming out of China, on the big scale, we do though have the medical records sourced by Loas Alamos from the hospitals for the clusters which can be interpreted as they are medical records and nothing else and extrapolated.

GodBless
 Quoting: MostHolyFace


hesright
anonymous coward
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02/19/2020 06:27 PM
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Re: STATISTICIAN: “I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,”, “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”
These virus entities are all evolving intelligences and instead of using the same old routes to infect and survive they are adapting in REAL TIME to the treatments applied.
The patients immune systems are still fighting with the same old "search and destroy" methodology. Strengthening the immune systems may be the best hope.
MostHolyFace

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02/19/2020 06:40 PM

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Re: STATISTICIAN: “I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,”, “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”
These virus entities are all evolving intelligences and instead of using the same old routes to infect and survive they are adapting in REAL TIME to the treatments applied.
The patients immune systems are still fighting with the same old "search and destroy" methodology. Strengthening the immune systems may be the best hope.
 Quoting: anonymous coward 76076258



Infact that is very dangerous

Most people die from this due to multiple organ failure

that multiple organ failure is caused by the ACE protien recptors in the organs, stomach, brain, nervous system, heart, etc that this virus uses to open the door and get into the cells and replicate.

The Bodies immune system goes into total overdrive, as its an unknonw never before seen virus in Humans with a very strange RNA makeup, it checks the library of inhereted and known virus, illness and how to react, cant find it, or anything close (some Corona Virus though nothing like this, except if had SARS etc) so it panicks over reacts and floods the area wherever these Virus are replicating and making the patiants cells burst to spread more, with huge amounts of T Cells and White Blood Cells, huge amounts of inflammation trying to surround and trap the virus.

Outcome like analphalatuc shock your own immune sytem kills you, the Pnuemonis is caused by the lungs being filled with the patiants own white and t cells etc, with inflamation etc, people suffocate in their own Immune juices, or the organs etc are inflammed and attacked massively as the immune system panis overreacts because it has no memory or library to ghet info on what to do.

Its like a man upstairs he hears noises in his living room, he has an UZI machine gun, he then hears multiple noises and the threatening We will kill them all, rape his wife and cut up his baby daughter.

He runs down stairs kicks open the door sprays the whole room with a full clip of the UZI killing everyone....

Not realising his wife and daughter was downstairs as wanted to watch a late film, his baby couldnt sleep he thought she was in the babys room upstairs, panicking he keeps his finger on the button a bullet rickochetes or the shock of it all and confusionhe does not see where he is aiming the gun and shots himself dead.

The Immune system can be a real problem in this case. You want it to be healthy and strong, however to not OVEREACT and create a Ckotene Storm and therfore multiple organ failure or heart attack/stroke some time later due to scarring, stress inflamation etc.

GodBless.
Sumtingwonger

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02/19/2020 06:50 PM

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Re: STATISTICIAN: “I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,”, “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”
It’s so great to see the China is becoming so American, and that they are able to simulate the data as well. Someday they will learn to fluctuate the variation within their models, in order to avoid such an obvious error. Let’s hope they pull in some people from the Fed
MostHolyFace

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02/19/2020 07:09 PM

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Re: STATISTICIAN: “I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,”, “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”
It’s so great to see the China is becoming so American, and that they are able to simulate the data as well. Someday they will learn to fluctuate the variation within their models, in order to avoid such an obvious error. Let’s hope they pull in some people from the Fed
 Quoting: Sumtingwonger


:-)

Lol they have come a long way, open markets, capitalism, appearance of choice that apparent western society offers,

Ahh Liberty! would you like an apple or orange sir? "I want a Pinapple!" YOU CANT HAVE A PINNAPLE an apple or Orange, look everyone is mocking you and will tell you you cant have apinapple its your choice now and apple or an orange?

They have learnt to pay the slaves just enough so they dont think they are slaves and can consume and pay the wages of more slaves, who make things they are told by the TV they want, that make them sick, and even tax's rather than just making them give all they make to the Emporer in chief.

They have learned that the best way to win against your enemy is to make them totally dependant on you and what you have to offer, and to buy all of your enemies debt and pay it off, so your enemy cant then ask their friends to attack you or hold you back, because you will "sell the debt" to the Heavies all at once (bonds and what prints the never ending $ since 07)

They have learnt that make it cheap sell it high by making it shiny and look good, and the Crows will come for a piece of it and fight over it, but not to make it so it lasts so it will always need replacing every couple of years.

They are getting close and learnt much, and indeed with their Centralised political control with all these things as well might make a much better slave country under the pretence of being free than any other "liberal" one...

They still though are lacking that one skill that all great business, corporations, the stock market, and governmnets rely on.


Maybe they should ask those who insured the twin towers just before 9/11 or the pentagon that looses billions into "unacounted for errors that are unrecoverable and untraceble" every single year, or the lehman brothers, and then they would have mastered the art of:

CREATIVE ACCOUNTING

Then China my Son

You will be Free Market Based Player.

GodBless

Last Edited by MostHolyFace on 02/19/2020 07:09 PM
Tim Foil Hat

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02/19/2020 08:11 PM
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Re: STATISTICIAN: “I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,”, “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”
I am not statistician, but I play one on LinkedIn. That said, I have had two courses in stats & a big data intor course, I'd agree .99 value for r is odd.
 Quoting: Arkansas River Bard


I have 2 degrees in statistics and have been doing predictive modeling for 30 years, in business analytics.

With real data, R^2 of .99 always means:

1) huge methodology error somewhere
Or
2) huge data error somewhere, usually by including something in the model you shouldn’t know at the time of prediction (looking into the future, basically). Think predicting death/no death from funeral bill sent yes/no.

Would be perfect or near perfect, and totally wrong.

Last Edited by VP Elect Tim Foil Hat on 02/19/2020 08:12 PM
Careful! They are listening!

VP Elect is the way to go. All the perks, none of the responsibility...
QCluminati

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02/19/2020 08:16 PM
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Re: STATISTICIAN: “I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,”, “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”
population reduction in action
I'm convinced this is what it is

Last Edited by QCluminati on 02/19/2020 08:16 PM
Unvaxxed because fuck you
MostHolyFace

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02/19/2020 09:45 PM

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Re: STATISTICIAN: “I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,”, “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”
I am not statistician, but I play one on LinkedIn. That said, I have had two courses in stats & a big data intor course, I'd agree .99 value for r is odd.
 Quoting: Bard


I have 2 degrees in statistics and have been doing predictive modeling for 30 years, in business analytics.

With real data, R^2 of .99 always means:

1) huge methodology error somewhere
Or
2) huge data error somewhere, usually by including something in the model you shouldn’t know at the time of prediction (looking into the future, basically). Think predicting death/no death from funeral bill sent yes/no.

Would be perfect or near perfect, and totally wrong.
 Quoting: Tim Foil Hat


Check out this guy hes proven the actual equation, real deal investigative fraud statitician for markets, part of the team looking at Tesla Guy for cogressional investigation in the states, hes nailed the figures days before released so many times its comical:

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

GodBless

Last Edited by MostHolyFace on 02/19/2020 09:48 PM





GLP