US Manufacturing Plant Supply Chain Issues - Coronavirus

It didn't take very long with the outbreak of WW2 to retool everything and have it in full swing. And that was before we had a real infrastructure; interstate highways, mass efficient logistics.

Funny you mention that. I just bought a few things at the auto store this morning.

Gm plants have about 2 weeks max of crap to work with.... them you will see shutdowns. BMW in SC doing little bit better...crap made in MX for them.
China buying med suuplys by containers...talk to your freight forwarders if you know any. In bound freight downd about 80%....outbound picking up....china buying up all that's of any emmidiate value.

Ironic that;

We have spent many years being so nastily critical of China in each and every manner, but now that they fell ill and are unable to work, we are beginning to miss them in more ways than one.

You see humans need each other to work and prosper.

Has nothing to do with "Limousine Liberalism and Champagne Socialism"

Fucking thousands of homeless people and with children won't even pick their lazy off the sidewalk to bus tables and you think they will sit on an assembly line.

Good luck with that...

Oil market already reflecting lowered consumption

You kiddin me?? We had many huge factories. Even the depression had been going on we were still manufacturing a ton of great shit. Since the 70s many of those great old buildings have been torn down, machinery scrapped. Retool a vacant lot with weeds and a couple bricks poking out of the dirt. Sorry, but the loss of that stuff pisses me off. At least they're saving the old GE plant here in Fort Wayne. For stupid shit, but at least it's still standing.

Nothing will happen. We got Mexico as backup option.

On the plus side...

If china's oil consumption drops, supplies will increase and prices will hopefully drop.

.... I know..... wishful thinking

Everyone could flood the cities like Detroit, Chicago, St. Louis, LA to retool and swarm big manufacturing.

That may not be the case this time.

Manufacturing may need to be dispersed to more places. Smaller places.

Having one giant factory in Detroit might not be a good idea as opposed to 4 small redundant ones in the hinterlands.

Lame comments from a third world Bulgarian asshole!

Yep....its a gamble for entrepreneurs.....spend millions to set up production that may be just short term.....the vitus might mutate into a less contagious form and stop.....China production resumes.....entrepreneurs stuck with half built factory that can't compete with China.....decisions decisions.....

In that case, the task is of course not to let society collapse from a disruption in the global economy. Society is more than the economy!

My dad is laid off. He works at a machine shop making plastic pellets for other machines. They don't have enough work.

My brother in law works for Samsung...I'm waiting to see what happens with that.

Just want to say that I'm in the semiconductor industry, and once the virus gets going in Taiwan, the shit is really going to hit the fan for just about every product.

What about RIGHT NOW?

To those that think we can flip a switch and start manufacturing again in the US, it really is not that simply.

For example, last year I did some work for a fortune 500 company that builds molds for injecting molding of plastic parts. The lead time to get a set of molds was 32 weeks. They were trying to get that down to 20 weeks, but even at that you would be waiting 4-1/2 weeks just for one part of the process.

The leads time is also very long in many other industries. Large metal working equipment such as plasma tables and presses often take 6 months to design and build. 4 years ago the lead time for a large fork truck (35,000 lb capacity) was 9 month lead time from Taylor and Hyster.

There are industries with mothballed capacity, but those are not the norm.

Also keep in mind that if they are starting an operation from scratch, the old rule of thumb in business is that it takes 7 years to be profitable. I've been involved in companies where we did it in 2, but that was a unique situations. It isn't just the equipment that takes time, but setting the systems in place and hiring/training people that takes forever, particularly in this labor market.

I'm not saying that we shouldn't be moving towards making all our stuff here, just don't expect it to be an instant fix for supply chain issues over the next 6 months to a year.

I have never prepped before. What do I need to do to get ready?

It's really not good because my mom needs medical insurance.

There might be temporary shortage of goods from China but that alone wouldn't stop the U.S economy from running. There are many local businesses that are not dependent on China like mom and pop grocery stories, hospitals, restaurants,etc.

Magna International, one of the world’s largest auto parts makers, has over 100 plants world wide but mostly in Canada, the US, Mexico and Europe. They even assembled whole Dodge minivans in Austria for the European market.

If that occurs, much of the rest of the world will be trying to remember wooden cart technology so they will be able to haul their dung around.

At least we will be armed and be able to defend ourselves when our erstwhile local Feudal Lords arrive at the door.

Good luck to you. I suspect your joy at our plight will be short-lived and be preempted with having to deal with Turks, Russians, or local warlords.

Time for companies to step up their game and bring the jobs back. They enjoyed their cheap labor for years and reaped the benefits of it. Now it is time for them to return and invest their savings in US Jobs.

If your asking that now, one bullet outta do.

You can't make this happen fast enough to ward off doom.

Question....how much is a whole dodge minivan assembled in Austria gonna cost in the US?

USA will have its own problems with this virus soon enough. The real hurt won’t be seen until the second wave in the fall of 2020. That’s when this will resurge and infect hundreds of millions to billions of people. Will effect our election, will probably have millions of business temporarily close to quarantine. Many businesses cannot handle interruptions, you will see a lot of bankruptcy, lots of people defaulting from mortgages, entire chains collapsing. Air travel and cruise companies will go under as everyone stops using them in fear. The domino effect is just beginning. This will make the 2008-2009 depression look like a walk in the park as the market is teetering on absurd highs riding a historical long 11 year bull market (the longest in history)
The collapse from this will be extremely hard, most businesses are heavily leveraged to encourage growth. Remove their revenues for months and they are going under.