Godlike Productions - Discussion Forum
Users Online Now: 1,857 (Who's On?)Visitors Today: 1,023,075
Pageviews Today: 1,706,632Threads Today: 692Posts Today: 11,517
05:30 PM


Rate this Thread

Absolute BS Crap Reasonable Nice Amazing
 

Understanding the Speed of Virus Spread

 
lightchild_uk
Waiting for IT

User ID: 72429277
United Kingdom
02/27/2020 05:22 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Understanding the Speed of Virus Spread
It can be difficult to understand exponential growth, such as a virus outbreak.

With a rate of infection (R0) of 2, each infected person will transmit the virus to 2 other people.

After a week 2 x 2 x 2 = 8 people will have the virus.

This short video demonstrates that principle with an R0 of 2.



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]


With an R0 of 5, each infected person will transmit the virus to 5 other people.

After a week 5 x 5 x 5 = 125 people will have the virus.
lightchild_uk  (OP)
Waiting for IT

User ID: 72429277
United Kingdom
02/27/2020 08:00 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Understanding the Speed of Virus Spread
bump
Ricky Retardo
Sofa King We Todd Did

User ID: 77907828
United States
02/27/2020 08:04 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Understanding the Speed of Virus Spread
great video, thanks
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78017652
United States
02/27/2020 08:05 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Understanding the Speed of Virus Spread
R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen as it is also affected by other factors such as environmental conditions and the behaviour of the infected population. Furthermore R0 values are usually estimated from mathematical models, and the estimated values are dependent on the model used and values of other parameters. Thus values given in the literature make only sense in the given context and it is recommended not to use obsolete values or compare values based on different models. R0 does not by itself give an estimate of how fast an infection spreads in the population.

[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]
lightchild_uk  (OP)
Waiting for IT

User ID: 72429277
United Kingdom
02/27/2020 08:13 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Understanding the Speed of Virus Spread
R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen as it is also affected by other factors such as environmental conditions and the behaviour of the infected population. Furthermore R0 values are usually estimated from mathematical models, and the estimated values are dependent on the model used and values of other parameters. Thus values given in the literature make only sense in the given context and it is recommended not to use obsolete values or compare values based on different models. R0 does not by itself give an estimate of how fast an infection spreads in the population.

[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78017652


Thank you.

hf
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78227755
United States
02/27/2020 08:15 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Understanding the Speed of Virus Spread
Explain how it ‘jumps’ to Italy and Iran? Me thinks something funky is afoot.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78017652
United States
02/27/2020 08:20 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Understanding the Speed of Virus Spread
Explain how it ‘jumps’ to Italy and Iran? Me thinks something funky is afoot.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78227755


Take 20 and watch this:






GLP