The harsh truth about COVID 19 exponential growth | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 66424718 United States 03/07/2020 11:58 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | listen dude people have trumpcare in America and they just can't afford a visit to the hospital because of the out of pocket co-pays so, most Americans will just ride it out like the sniffles or the common cold the idea that the healthcare system is going to collapse is laughable |
John_the_Baptist_
User ID: 75220565 United States 03/07/2020 12:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | “ I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math. 1/n Quoting: The_Original_Mind Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I’ll address implications later of under-/over-estimate. 2/n We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts. 3/n We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go. 4/n As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population. 5/n What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted. 6/n The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc). 7/n Let’s trust Italy’s numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. (Keep in mind that for many patients, hospitalization lasts for *weeks* — in other words, turnover will be *very* slow as beds fill with COVID19 patients). 8/n By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.) 9/n If we’re wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd. 10/n If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th. This, of course, assumes that there is no uptick in demand for beds from *other* (non-COVID19) causes, which seems like a dubious assumption. 11/n As healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care & hospitalization. But let’s ignore that for now. 12/n“... Read the rest here: [link to threadreaderapp.com (secure)] Excellent overview of the coming crisis. Thank you for your thoughtful analysis. "This is the way the world ends, not with a bang but with a gasp." Stephen King, Under the Dome |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 72986504 United States 03/07/2020 12:09 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Fiestyfiddle
User ID: 78227903 United States 03/07/2020 12:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | listen dude Quoting: Anonymous Coward 66424718 people have trumpcare in America and they just can't afford a visit to the hospital because of the out of pocket co-pays so, most Americans will just ride it out like the sniffles or the common cold the idea that the healthcare system is going to collapse is laughable The fact you don't think it will collapse is laughable. Been in healthcare a long time, Hospitals are always overwhelmed by the occassional unexpected mass influx of cases. A little thing like a multi-car pile-up causes serious issues. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 73443589 United States 03/07/2020 12:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Oscanator User ID: 78507509 United States 03/07/2020 12:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | listen dude Quoting: Anonymous Coward 66424718 people have trumpcare in America and they just can't afford a visit to the hospital because of the out of pocket co-pays so, most Americans will just ride it out like the sniffles or the common cold the idea that the healthcare system is going to collapse is laughable Ignorance is bliss |
Jack The Leper
User ID: 78345706 United States 03/07/2020 12:16 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | now go figure out the Flu Jerusalem, my happy home, When shall I come to thee? When shall my sorrows have an end? Thy joys when shall I see? O Christ, do Thou my soul prepare For that bright home of love That I may see Thee and adore With all Thy saints above. |
terrifiedanimal
User ID: 78351348 United States 03/07/2020 12:16 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I work for a huge healthcare concern. My office is adjacent to one of their larger hospitals. I have an idea what our capacity is, because I am privy to and instrumental in how they plan to expand that capacity. It aint pretty is all I'm gonna say. |
Cap’n Obvious
User ID: 76010295 United States 03/07/2020 12:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | listen dude Quoting: Anonymous Coward 66424718 people have trumpcare in America and they just can't afford a visit to the hospital because of the out of pocket co-pays so, most Americans will just ride it out like the sniffles or the common cold the idea that the healthcare system is going to collapse is laughable You idiot. Half of all Americans are covered by Medicare, Medicaid, government health insurance, Child healthcare programs or union insurance plans that are now guaranteed by the US government. 30% plus are in a company provided plan. Obama care picks up most of the rest. The hospitals will be overflowing with insured patients. Have a nice day = GFY. GFY = Go Fuck Yourself. If this offends you then have a nice day. |
wYw User ID: 76522115 United States 03/07/2020 12:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | listen dude Quoting: Anonymous Coward 66424718 people have trumpcare in America and they just can't afford a visit to the hospital because of the out of pocket co-pays so, most Americans will just ride it out like the sniffles or the common cold the idea that the healthcare system is going to collapse is laughable Ignorance is bliss The cognitive dissonance here is as contagious as the panic |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 78065258 Canada 03/07/2020 12:24 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | listen dude Quoting: Anonymous Coward 66424718 people have trumpcare in America and they just can't afford a visit to the hospital because of the out of pocket co-pays so, most Americans will just ride it out like the sniffles or the common cold the idea that the healthcare system is going to collapse is laughable The fact you don't think it will collapse is laughable. Been in healthcare a long time, Hospitals are always overwhelmed by the occassional unexpected mass influx of cases. A little thing like a multi-car pile-up causes serious issues. Hell, the outbreaks of cold, flu, croup, and RSV this winter led to medicine shortages/waitlists here in southwest Michigan and overwhelmed the clinics and hospitals. It doesn’t take much. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 75025309 United States 03/07/2020 12:24 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | listen dude Quoting: Anonymous Coward 66424718 people have trumpcare in America and they just can't afford a visit to the hospital because of the out of pocket co-pays so, most Americans will just ride it out like the sniffles or the common cold the idea that the healthcare system is going to collapse is laughable The fact you don't think it will collapse is laughable. Been in healthcare a long time, Hospitals are always overwhelmed by the occassional unexpected mass influx of cases. A little thing like a multi-car pile-up causes serious issues. So many dumbasses, without experience or knowledge, spout off and never cease to amaze us with knowledge and experience. I'm to the point where I just agree with them and watch the idiot's smirk in their self righteousness knowing they are heading off the cliff. |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 78065258 Canada 03/07/2020 12:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78128618 United States 03/07/2020 12:30 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | That's been an obvious possibility with this virus to some of us back when we observed what happened in Wuhan. And because of that, it would be nice if authorities would press for actions to coerce isolation practices in communities. The CDC has already recommended it for older people. Take it to the next step. But then with that - economic impact (buying power of people, stuff to buy), social impact in places where people don't have the resources in house to isolate for any duration. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 69025424 Canada 03/07/2020 12:32 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | listen dude Quoting: Anonymous Coward 66424718 people have trumpcare in America and they just can't afford a visit to the hospital because of the out of pocket co-pays so, most Americans will just ride it out like the sniffles or the common cold the idea that the healthcare system is going to collapse is laughable It all countries have ridiculously overpriced healthcare systems that favor the rich! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 69025424 Canada 03/07/2020 12:32 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78342846 United States 03/07/2020 12:32 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
dabrute
User ID: 75615507 United States 03/07/2020 12:33 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Wait - So China with a population over 4 times the USA has had less than 100k confirmed cases since December and I am suppose to believe math that has the USA with 1m cases by May? ummmm ok. Even South Korea is now stabilized on new cases and is actually achieved negative exponential growth - go figure The breath of Putin ass lickers smells just as bad as the breath of Biden ass lickers |
Tyrone Slothrop
User ID: 68046505 United States 03/07/2020 12:34 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | listen dude Quoting: Anonymous Coward 66424718 people have trumpcare in America and they just can't afford a visit to the hospital because of the out of pocket co-pays so, most Americans will just ride it out like the sniffles or the common cold the idea that the healthcare system is going to collapse is laughable The current health care "system" in the US is decades in the making, and it has to be trumpcare. The thing about Trump is, the Democrats are so bad they make him look good, and people like you don't help. I've gotten a lot of red for telling the truth and being right. Just sayin' |
dabrute
User ID: 75615507 United States 03/07/2020 12:36 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | listen dude Quoting: Anonymous Coward 66424718 people have trumpcare in America and they just can't afford a visit to the hospital because of the out of pocket co-pays so, most Americans will just ride it out like the sniffles or the common cold the idea that the healthcare system is going to collapse is laughable It all countries have ridiculously overpriced healthcare systems that favor the rich! True but the socialist countries have poor capacity for health care thus the long waits. The breath of Putin ass lickers smells just as bad as the breath of Biden ass lickers |
dabrute
User ID: 75615507 United States 03/07/2020 12:38 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 76825730 United States 03/07/2020 12:38 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 76516043 United States 03/07/2020 12:38 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | listen dude Quoting: Anonymous Coward 66424718 people have trumpcare in America and they just can't afford a visit to the hospital because of the out of pocket co-pays so, most Americans will just ride it out like the sniffles or the common cold the idea that the healthcare system is going to collapse is laughable Ignorance is bliss The cognitive dissonance here is as contagious as the panic I don't believe that cognitive dissonance is contagious. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78336518 United Kingdom 03/07/2020 12:39 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Wait - So China with a population over 4 times the USA has had less than 100k confirmed cases since December and I am suppose to believe math that has the USA with 1m cases by May? ummmm ok. Quoting: dabrute Even South Korea is now stabilized on new cases and is actually achieved negative exponential growth - go figure China imposed an almost nationwide travel ban and restricted people to their homes at gunpoint. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78572450 United States 03/07/2020 12:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | listen dude Quoting: Anonymous Coward 66424718 people have trumpcare in America and they just can't afford a visit to the hospital because of the out of pocket co-pays so, most Americans will just ride it out like the sniffles or the common cold the idea that the healthcare system is going to collapse is laughable What in the hell is this "trumpcare" you people keep talking about and how can i sign up? Because there is zero chance its worse than the actual health insurance we have that is obamacare |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78570571 United States 03/07/2020 12:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
dabrute
User ID: 75615507 United States 03/07/2020 12:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Wait - So China with a population over 4 times the USA has had less than 100k confirmed cases since December and I am suppose to believe math that has the USA with 1m cases by May? ummmm ok. Quoting: dabrute Even South Korea is now stabilized on new cases and is actually achieved negative exponential growth - go figure China imposed an almost nationwide travel ban and restricted people to their homes at gunpoint. Only in the highly affected areas - there was still a lot of people moving around in China - plus South Korea is a pretty open society so your logic, even if true doesn't apply to them The breath of Putin ass lickers smells just as bad as the breath of Biden ass lickers |
Miller_The_Bastard_Cat
User ID: 21209616 United States 03/07/2020 12:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | listen dude Quoting: Anonymous Coward 66424718 people have trumpcare in America and they just can't afford a visit to the hospital because of the out of pocket co-pays so, most Americans will just ride it out like the sniffles or the common cold the idea that the healthcare system is going to collapse is laughable When people run a 104 temp, and can't breath, they'll go to ER. People stop caring about money when they feel like shit. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 77155702 United States 03/07/2020 12:48 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | listen dude Quoting: Anonymous Coward 66424718 people have trumpcare in America and they just can't afford a visit to the hospital because of the out of pocket co-pays so, most Americans will just ride it out like the sniffles or the common cold the idea that the healthcare system is going to collapse is laughable Um... it’s Obamacare. Trump made it very clear let it fail, let them feel the pain of their stupidity. Sorry if it hurts your feelings. |
galvanic
User ID: 75201497 United States 03/07/2020 12:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | If we just took all the empty former Sears stores in the USA we will have plenty of room for makeshift emergency hospitals all across the USA Quoting: dabrute And who is going to staff them? Manufacture all the beds and medical equipment? Produce the ventilators and OEM? Where will the medicines be made? Who will launder all the linens and make the beds? Cook the food and deliver it? Easy answers are easy because they ignore the enormous secondary and tertiary requirements to be operational. Last Edited by galvanic on 03/07/2020 12:50 PM galvanic |