A 2017 NORTHCOM report correctly anticipated many aspects of the 2020 novel coronavirus pandemic.
The report predicted the pandemic could seriously affect American society for up to two years and incapacitate up to 40 percent of the workforce.
The report also warned that terrorists and other groups could take advantage of the confusion to stage attacks.
A 2017 report created by U.S. Northern Command warned that a future pandemic could have grave consequences for the military and the entire nation. The report warned that a “novel respiratory disease” could spread worldwide, seriously affecting American society and the economy for up to two years. The report also predicts global instability resulting in dramatic social disruptions, terrorism, and state aggression.



The document, known as Branch Plan 3650, was first revealed by The Nation and uploaded online. It was meant to provide planning guidance to NORTHCOM personnel responding to an “operationally significant infectious disease outbreak.” It outlines different types of outbreaks, from terrorism to the kind of “biological spillover” from Chinese wet markets that authorities believe created COVID-19. Outlining the threat, Branch Plan 3650 inadvertently predicts with uncanny precision the problem Chinese authorities faced in the early days of the epidemic in Wuhan:



Unlike chemical and radiological hazards, biological incidents may take months to develop, and with certain causative bacteria and viruses may continue to spread from person-to-person. Also, there are limited detection/warning capabilities for biologicals which means that an outbreak/attack can go unrecognized and continue to spread before a clinical diagnosis is made. This will be exacerbated if there are limited or no assays by which to identify the organism and if the symptoms mimic naturally occurring endemic outbreaks (e.g., seasonal flu.)


As of April 7th, 2020, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center counts 1.4 million cases of COVID-19 worldwide since the start of the outbreak, with cases in the U.S. now at 400,000. The site reports 82,145 deaths globally, with 12,722 deaths recorded in the U.S. alone.


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