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Power infrastructure - I predict rolling blackouts will become the norm in the future

 
Optoisolator
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03/18/2020 09:57 AM
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Power infrastructure - I predict rolling blackouts will become the norm in the future
As I've stated in another thread - I work for a power plant manufacturing OEM. I work in the supply chain piece - we manage inventory for new and repaired parts to support our fleet of gas turbine power plants around the world.

Our supply chain is fairly large - we have a lot of manufacturers that make parts for these turbines. The suppliers are starting to shut down. We have recently begun to lean out our inventory of parts, due to the JIT concept (and the fact that our inventory was very bloated to being with).

Power plants are considered critical infrastructure. However, to run they need maintenance, just like your car. Maintenance could be minor (such as changing filters), to having an extended outage (inspections of combustion chambers, replacement of blades / vanes / other parts).

I reviewed the list of outages for the remainder of this calendar year (power plants typically come down for maintenance outages in spring and fall - and guess what, it's spring now so outage season has officially started).

I see a lot of units across the US that are scheduled to be out due to maintenance this spring, and more this fall.

Most of these customers cannot delay their outages due to the nature of how long the parts can run before needing changing out.

That being said - since the supply chain is very shallow, I am predicting rolling blackouts will be occurring in certain regions, due to the fact that everyone will be working from home (or sheltering in place), and lack of available replacement parts - meaning some of the plants will have to shut down.

Gas up your generators - prepare, as I don't think things will end up returning to normal for quite some time.
Opto_isolator
Optoisolator  (OP)

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03/18/2020 10:10 AM
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Re: Power infrastructure - I predict rolling blackouts will become the norm in the future
Bump for being prepared
Opto_isolator
Optoisolator  (OP)

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03/18/2020 10:25 AM
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Re: Power infrastructure - I predict rolling blackouts will become the norm in the future
No one cares about their power?
Opto_isolator
ChefElvis

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03/18/2020 10:27 AM

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Re: Power infrastructure - I predict rolling blackouts will become the norm in the future
Transformers are made in China.
A legend in my own mind
5150Patriot

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03/18/2020 10:32 AM
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Re: Power infrastructure - I predict rolling blackouts will become the norm in the future
bump
Anonymous Coward
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03/18/2020 10:33 AM
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Re: Power infrastructure - I predict rolling blackouts will become the norm in the future
No one cares about their power?
 Quoting: Optoisolator


I sure do...!
Anonymous Coward
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03/18/2020 10:37 AM
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Re: Power infrastructure - I predict rolling blackouts will become the norm in the future
This was mentioned yesterday on RPR podcast. Up to then I didn’t think it was a thing. The way he explained was with everyone being gone and using more power than normal it would have to be done in order to keep the grids from failing
Optoisolator  (OP)

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03/18/2020 10:37 AM
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Re: Power infrastructure - I predict rolling blackouts will become the norm in the future
Transformers are made in China.
 Quoting: ChefElvis


I'm specifically addressing prime movers - combustion turbines. Transformers don't typically need much maintenance.
Opto_isolator
Optoisolator  (OP)

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03/18/2020 10:27 PM
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Re: Power infrastructure - I predict rolling blackouts will become the norm in the future
[link to www.eei.org (secure)]

Here is a good document from Edison Electrical Institute that outlines pandemic plans for power plants. Specifically there is a section on page six that states:

"What would happen if weather events cause power outages
during a pandemic?

Given that a pandemic outbreak could extend for
as long as two months, or perhaps longer, it is
possible—and in some parts of the country perhaps
even likely—that weather-related or other types of
outages could occur during the same time period that
a community is affected by a pandemic.

During non-health emergencies, such as severe
storms, electric companies often can speed
restoration of electricity by bringing in additional
skilled workers from companies and contractors
outside the area affected by an emergency. This
practice is known as mutual assistance. However,
during a pandemic, mutual assistance either may not
be available or may be severely limited.

Another factor that electric companies consider in
their planning is the availability of equipment and
materials for restoration. Companies depend on
many types of businesses to supply equipment
and materials used in maintaining and restoring
their infrastructure. A pandemic could affect all
types of businesses, including manufacturing and
transportation industries, and restoration times may
be impacted."


Last Edited by Optoisolator on 03/18/2020 10:27 PM
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Malu nli

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03/18/2020 10:34 PM
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Re: Power infrastructure - I predict rolling blackouts will become the norm in the future
They are also taking down the coal power plants, which supply an entire county with power, which gave us some independence, and even our big ass back up diesel generator. They are tearing them both down.

Just as this virus hits


So we will now add to the drain on the national grid.
Anonymous Coward
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03/18/2020 10:44 PM
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Re: Power infrastructure - I predict rolling blackouts will become the norm in the future
Thanks OP. Good insight. Power generation depends on the ability not only to fuel the system but to keep the machinery running and to have the parts to do so.
Optoisolator  (OP)

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03/18/2020 10:59 PM
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Re: Power infrastructure - I predict rolling blackouts will become the norm in the future
Juan Star strikes again, I see....lala
Opto_isolator
A.E.O.N.

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03/18/2020 11:16 PM
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Re: Power infrastructure - I predict rolling blackouts will become the norm in the future
I think it too. in fact Optoisolator is a nice nickname.
I've installed solar panels in my fathers house, and I would love to have an offgrid system too just to keep the fridge and alarm running if/when the grid goes down.

actually storing barbecue in fat grease so I can spend a winter without fridge, we should look the way people used to live 100 years ago.
A.E.O.N.





GLP