Thanks Gasman...

This video really helped me to wrap my mind around all of
this COVD-19 material that has flooded the Forum and the
media thus far. I think it is well worth the 39 minutes and
if you only wish to check certain topics in the outline
below I have provided the "minute marks" you can find them
at.

Hope this helps:


Points of interest (pretty basic stuff):

Humans carry on average about 5 different viral infections at any given time.
(Your immune system fights them off but they're just hanging in there.)

SARS-2 COVID-19 is the name of the VIRUS, while COVID-19 indicates the
actual disease (much like HIV is the virus and AIDS is the disease--differnet
designations.)

He explains the virus dynamics (you need to watch this part--talks about how
it enters the cell, uses it as a host and replicates, etc.) Because the COVD-19
is an "envelope virus" (it puts on the membrane of YOUR own cell like a winter coat)
--which is good because this can be destroyed by most detergents/soaps.

Proteins on the surface of the virus look like a "crown" which is why the
name "corona" is used for the name. When you hear "novel" in front of the virus
name it means the PROTEINS of the virus are BRAND NEW and no one has an immunity
already in place against them. "Novel" means NEW.

This is 5 minutes into the 40 minute presentation.

Question: Why is the "novel virus" so dangerous? (Lessons learned from normal flu.)

1. The world has never seen this virus before. (IMHO this should explain to people
who want an "instant cure" for this illness WHY IT WILL TAKE TIME to get a handle
on a cure. Scientists haven't seen it before, so there is ZERO RESEARCH to be
able to just run and make a vaccine for it...but it is coming.) THERE IS NO
IMMUNITY...NOT A SINGLE PERSON...PERIOD.

2. "Seasonal flu" is the circulation of viruses that the human population's immune
systems ALREADY RECOGNIZE.

3. When a "novel flu" appears...it travels very fast and is very contageous...this
is when they label the "novel virus" a PANDEMIC FLU.

4. "Seasonal flu" is NOT novel. The flu season is just a slight change in already
circulating flu viruses. The NOVEL virus spreads extremely fast. Pandemic flu
is...NASTY STUFF.

5. 1918 Spanish Flu is the Grand daddy of flu pandemics. It killed 50,000,000 people
world-wide with 676,000 people in the U.S.A. mortality rate was 2%. Swine flu was
only .05%. Seasonal flu this year has killed 18,000--explains it on the chart .06%
mortality rate.

6. 81% cases get mild "cold-like" symptoms (the good news) but the bad symptoms
14% pneumonia then 5% of those infected = critical sepsis and respiratory failure.
50% death rate of those 5% will pass.

7. At the 26 min mark narrator explains the concern is to keep the CURVE FLATTENED
so our health care is NOT overwhelmed. (Graph at 29 minute mark shows "what doing
nothing--no lock-downs--would mean...versus..."doing something.") Graphic, by the
way, puts the hypothetical out between April thru June 2020.

CHART ABOUT SPANISH FLU AND OTHERS IS AT 7:00 MIN MARK.

Goes on to explain SARS and MERS--fewer than 1,000 deaths world wide 10 min. mark.
SARS mortality was 9%--while MERS was 35% but they got a handle on it with drugs.
COVD-19 mortality percentage is 3% (10 min mark.) SARS (Sudden Acute Respitory Syndrome)
was very sudden and was successfully contained. SARS did NOT have this strange "contagion
even if NOT symptomatic" so it was easier to contain early on.

UP TO 2 WEEKS TO SHOW SYMPTOMS in the COVD-19 virus--victims MOST contagious by day
5 of getting the virus. If your symptoms don't even show up for over 1 week you can
be shedding the VIRUS AT DAY 5 WITHOUT SYMPTOMS with maximum contagion. This makes it
very difficult to contain. 14 min mark in presentation shows charts of contagion, etc.

ALSO: Without the ability to TEST ASYMPTOMATIC PEOPLE...it spreads rapidly without
our ability to contain it. Next--dropplet contagion is most dangerous...airborne means
the "droplets" are so tiny they aerosolize into the air. VIRUS LIVES ON SURFACES
--ESPECIALLY THE HANDS. Avoid touching your face, nose, eyes, mouth. Indirect contact
where virus falls onto a doornob STAY ALIVE FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS TO SEVERAL DAYS
ON METAL/PLASTIC. "Your hands are NOT YOUR FRIENDS right now...keep your hands clean
and don't touch stuff!" (Disinfect your living areas/working areas.)
18 minute mark in presentation. CHART ON TRANSMISSION HERE.

Can COVD-19 be contained? China's Wuhan province a good example they were able
to contain it--but MAJOR LOCK DOWN. Depends on whether or not U.S. can get the
same level of LOCK DOWN as China was able to do. SELF-QUARANTINE IF YOU ARE ILL.
(...WHICH is obvious, but if there are no symptoms many will go to work and carry
on as if they are fine.)

24 Minute mark (with a really awful chart for "world-wide spread" at 24:30 min mark):

HOW BAD IS IT? THE R-NOT RATE NOW IS 2.5...for every infection the person passes it
on to 2 1/2 people...number of cases DOUBLES every week at this rate.
24 minute mark shows THE CURVE FOR EXPONENTIAL RATES FOR VARIOUS COUNTRIES.

Question: How many are infected in the U.S.A. right now?

We have no idea. (24:54 min mark.)

But very interesting comment about the "rate curve" verses the LOCK DOWN POINT
FOR WUHAN and what that means for the curve. (Pretty scary when you consider that
the U.S. is NOT locked down except for some cities right now 3-19-2020)

Narrator suggests you MULTIPLY by at least 10Xs the number stats that are being
announced for the U.S. on the news. (Watch that Wuhan China explanation at the 24:50 min
mark to understand why they believe this based on China--they thought there were only
350 cases when there were actually cases in the 1,000s.)
CHART AT 26 MINUTES (talks about multiplying the numbers)

IMPORTANCE TO "SUPPRESS" THE CURVE? diagram at the 27 minute mark...what would the
curve look like without a lock down versus trying to get people to stay home.
(Dotted line in this graphic represents "how many the hospitals will be able to
handle and at what point is the health-care system OVERWHELMED?"

31 Minute mark--graphic shows % of mild versus critical symptoms from COVD-19.
THIS discussion I found most concerning as he has put together various scenarios
where 10%...20%...25%--with the actual models showing 50% catchy-rate actually get
the virus in JUST ONE COUNTY (his county)...
it shows how many would need critical ICU intervention to save their lives...
can the few hospitals (we have 3 hospitals in our immediate county with only about
20 ICU beds) actually handle 1,000 critical care patients? Um...no. Graph at 32 min. mark.

12 days is average hospital stay required to take a critical care person to
level where he/she doesn't need ICU care. Narrator's county has 10 beds..with the
modeled infection rate at 50% with 2800 cases will need it! Woah.

The majority watching the video will ONLY HAVE MILD SYMPTOMS and no hospitalization...
the problem lies with the SERIOUS CASES due to our hospitals NOT having the "carrying
capacity" to meet the demand for ICU critical care.
(35 Minute mark) Narrator says: "THIS is why we need to take the lock-downs and
self-isolation measures SERIOUSLY." He goes on to report about people in NY thinking
they can go to Saracuse hospitals rather than the small town hospitals?...He says that
will NOT work.

Narrator asks:

HOW MUCH ARE WE WILLING TO DO TO PROTECT OUR MOST VULNERABLE FOLKS UNDER THESE NUMBERS.
WE MUST "FLATTEN THIS CURVE"...ONLY EXTREME MEASURES WILL HELP US SO PLEASE HONOR
THE DIRECTIVE IN YOUR OWN COMMUNITIES!
END OUTLINE

I thought I pretty much had a good handle on the COVD-19
information before watching this video...I didn't...and
I'm really appreciating your posting this. It tells the
very LATEST with studies on the example from China and
what can be expected here. Seriously important video.


S.S.PUG