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Forecasting coronavirus spread: GUESS how many cases by next Friday............

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 73895319
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03/25/2020 10:36 PM
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Re: Forecasting coronavirus spread: GUESS how many cases by next Friday............
I'm guessing potato...let me know if I win.
 Quoting: Use your brian... moran!


lmao
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/26/2020 09:50 PM
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Re: Forecasting coronavirus spread: GUESS how many cases by next Friday............
...


Late-evening update:
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77069256


Sure looks like it's accelerating......faster and faster. USA at 68K cases; Italy at 74K cases. Will USA take place #2 for most cases in the world? This week or next week?
[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77069256

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77069256

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77069256


Who still can't see the exponential growth???
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/26/2020 09:51 PM
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Re: Forecasting coronavirus spread: GUESS how many cases by next Friday............
3/11/20: 118,000 worldwide, 700 USA
3/18/20: 207,000 worldwide, 7,000 USA
3/20/20: 275,000 worldwide, 20,000 USA
3/26/20: 531,000 worldwide, 85,000 USA
^
as of9:45pm EST
[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]

Can YOU look at the data and form an educated GUESS as to the total numbers we will see on Friday?

3/27/20: ............???????????????????

My guess: 700,000 worldwide, 70,000 USA. Looks like I guessed too low.......


GUESS: ________worldwide, _________USA........

Whoever's closest without going over wins. Contest ends 3/27/20 at 10:00am EST.


Late-evening update:


Sure looks like it's accelerating......faster and faster. USA at 68K cases; Italy at 74K cases. Will USA take place #2 for most cases in the world? This week or next week?
[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/26/2020 10:08 PM
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Re: Forecasting coronavirus spread: GUESS how many cases by next Friday............
By 10 pm CDT Friday, 90,000 US confirmed, 1300 dead. 3000- critical/serious
 Quoting: MarPep


There after, the doubling case rates will go down due to social isolation and the death rates will go down due to due to use of hydroxychloroquine.
 Quoting: MarPep


Still think only 90,000 US by tomorrow?
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/27/2020 12:03 PM
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Re: Forecasting coronavirus spread: GUESS how many cases by next Friday............
3/27/20: 565,000 worldwide, 92,000 USA
^
as of 12:00pm EST
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/27/2020 12:07 PM
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Re: Forecasting coronavirus spread: GUESS how many cases by next Friday............
3/11/20: 118,000 worldwide, 700 USA
3/18/20: 207,000 worldwide, 7,000 USA
3/20/20: 275,000 worldwide, 20,000 USA

[link to coronavirus.jhu.edu (secure)]

3/27/20: ............???????????????????

My guess: 500,000 worldwide, 50,000 USA
 Quoting: BronYx 77069256


Friday March 27th

Worldwide: 489,232

USA: 57,223
 Quoting: Ravens 3


Congratulations. Your guess was the closes to the actual number without going over the actual number. My USA guess of 70,000 was closer to the actual number, but my worldwide guess was too high.
JJ Johns
J to the 3rd

User ID: 78471388
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03/27/2020 02:47 PM

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Re: Forecasting coronavirus spread: GUESS how many cases by next Friday............
something strange happened. i was plotting the daily mortality numbers since the end of january. a few days ago, someone mentioned i should put my prediction here, and i did, for total dead by the end of today.
so, i was following the numbers closely.
between yesterday and today, the total number of rate of deaths was cut by about 2,000.

strange. my prediction for 28,000+ (28-30,000) was looking spot on until the numbers changed this morning.

i can understand adjusting the numbers from the day or two before, but not over many days. it's just strange.
.
.
No clotshot, NEVER!
.
Mad as hell!

.
Anonymous Coward
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03/27/2020 02:57 PM
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Re: Forecasting coronavirus spread: GUESS how many cases by next Friday............
something strange happened. i was plotting the daily mortality numbers since the end of january. a few days ago, someone mentioned i should put my prediction here, and i did, for total dead by the end of today.
so, i was following the numbers closely.
between yesterday and today, the total number of rate of deaths was cut by about 2,000.

strange. my prediction for 28,000+ (28-30,000) was looking spot on until the numbers changed this morning.

i can understand adjusting the numbers from the day or two before, but not over many days. it's just strange.
 Quoting: JJ Johns


Quick look maybe another site might still have the higher number.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 77069256
United States
03/27/2020 05:12 PM
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Re: Forecasting coronavirus spread: GUESS how many cases by next Friday............
something strange happened. i was plotting the daily mortality numbers since the end of january. a few days ago, someone mentioned i should put my prediction here, and i did, for total dead by the end of today.
so, i was following the numbers closely.
between yesterday and today, the total number of rate of deaths was cut by about 2,000.

strange. my prediction for 28,000+ (28-30,000) was looking spot on until the numbers changed this morning.

i can understand adjusting the numbers from the day or two before, but not over many days. it's just strange.
 Quoting: JJ Johns


That is VERY strange.........
Semper fi
User ID: 78213816
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03/27/2020 05:49 PM
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Re: Forecasting coronavirus spread: GUESS how many cases by next Friday............
It's a fucking bio weapon
Ravens 3

User ID: 78697888
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03/28/2020 01:29 PM
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Re: Forecasting coronavirus spread: GUESS how many cases by next Friday............
3/11/20: 118,000 worldwide, 700 USA
3/18/20: 207,000 worldwide, 7,000 USA
3/20/20: 275,000 worldwide, 20,000 USA

[link to coronavirus.jhu.edu (secure)]

3/27/20: ............???????????????????

My guess: 500,000 worldwide, 50,000 USA
 Quoting: BronYx 77069256


Friday March 27th

Worldwide: 489,232

USA: 57,223
 Quoting: Ravens 3


Congratulations. Your guess was the closes to the actual number without going over the actual number. My USA guess of 70,000 was closer to the actual number, but my worldwide guess was too high.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77069256


Thanks but damn...this thing is growing FAST!
xXx
Anonymous Coward
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03/28/2020 01:31 PM
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Re: Forecasting coronavirus spread: GUESS how many cases by next Friday............
I'm guessing potato...let me know if I win.
 Quoting: Use your brian... moran!


You won
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 77069256
United States
03/30/2020 11:38 PM
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Re: Forecasting coronavirus spread: GUESS how many cases by next Friday............
3/11/20: 118,000 worldwide, 700 USA
3/18/20: 207,000 worldwide, 7,000 USA
3/20/20: 275,000 worldwide, 20,000 USA

[link to coronavirus.jhu.edu (secure)]

3/27/20: ............???????????????????

My guess: 500,000 worldwide, 50,000 USA
 Quoting: BronYx 77069256


Friday March 27th

Worldwide: 489,232

USA: 57,223
 Quoting: Ravens 3


Congratulations. Your guess was the closes to the actual number without going over the actual number. My USA guess of 70,000 was closer to the actual number, but my worldwide guess was too high.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77069256


Thanks but damn...this thing is growing FAST!
 Quoting: Ravens 3


Yes but hopefully it slows down after April 15.........





GLP