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DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!

 
Anonymous Coward
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03/23/2020 11:26 PM
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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
bsflag

More like every 4 days. Every day coming soon.
Anonymous Coward
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03/23/2020 11:30 PM
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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
Date Mortality Doubling in /Days

28.Jan 132
31.Jan 259 3 days
04.Feb 492 4 days
10.Feb 1018 6 Days
18.Feb 2009 8 Days
09.Mrz 4025 20 Days
17.Mrz 7978 8 Days
23.Mrz 16125 6 Days


i've been watching the numbers, and the doubling of the mortality rate is speeding up.

we hit 16,000 deaths today. 6 days after we hit approximately 8,000.

--- add---

even worse is that this exponential growth is accelerating!

have a look at the numbers from the past few days, and note today, isn't even over yet.

DATE / Daily / Total Deaths
18.Mar...973.....8951
19.Mar...1080....10031
20.Mar...1356....11387
21.Mar...1638....13025
22.Mar...1634....14659
23.Mar...1697....16356

all the stats are from the link below.

[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]
 Quoting: JJ Johns


bsflagbsflagbsflag
Jungleboogie

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03/23/2020 11:56 PM

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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
if we keep doubling every 6 days...

let's say every week, at this rate.

16,000+ - currently
32,000 - next week
64,000 - in 2 weeks
128,000- in 3 weeks
256,000 - in one month
500,000 in 5 weeks
1 million in 6 weeks
2 million in 7 weeks...
 Quoting: JJ Johns


It will more than double every 6 days. The vast majority of deaths are still from Italy and China.

Look at Italy's death rate from patient zero to today.

The west is all basically within a week of each other from their own patient zero in their individual countries.

Death rate is going on a rocket ride.
Embrace the cognitive dissonance.
Digital mix guy

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03/24/2020 12:03 AM
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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
Date Mortality Doubling in /Days

28.Jan 132
31.Jan 259 3 days
04.Feb 492 4 days
10.Feb 1018 6 Days
18.Feb 2009 8 Days
09.Mrz 4025 20 Days
17.Mrz 7978 8 Days
23.Mrz 16125 6 Days


i've been watching the numbers, and the doubling of the mortality rate is speeding up.

we hit 16,000 deaths today. 6 days after we hit approximately 8,000.

--- add---

even worse is that this exponential growth is accelerating!

have a look at the numbers from the past few days, and note today, isn't even over yet.

DATE / Daily / Total Deaths
18.Mar...973.....8951
19.Mar...1080....10031
20.Mar...1356....11387
21.Mar...1638....13025
22.Mar...1634....14659
23.Mar...1697....16356

all the stats are from the link below.

[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]
 Quoting: JJ Johns
Anonymous Coward
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03/24/2020 12:07 AM
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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
OP. According to your fear mongering 'exponential growth' model, the 8 Billion people (the whole Earth) will be dead in 20 weeks.
I think it's time to rethink your models, calm the F down, and stop fear mongering.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76772883


Precisely. In Canada, we have a total of 2,088 active cases, and just 23 deaths.

That works out to a mortality rate of just 1.1%, less than annual seasonal flu. Even in Italy, the death rate is 0.0938%, or just under 1%.

Taken as a percentage of total population, Canada’s death rate is just .0000006126%, almost infinitesimally small.

Hardly a case of ‘deaths doubling every week’.

The concern with coronavirus isn't the number of deaths, it’s the rate of infections (which is exponential, by the way) and their potential to overwhelm even the best-equipped health care systems, and cause people who are not infected to die of other causes for want of treatment because all the resources are being redirected to treating coronavirus cases.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78629642


This is the worst math and understanding I’ve seen. I don’t even know where to start.
Anonymous Coward
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03/24/2020 12:54 AM
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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
if we keep doubling every 6 days...

let's say every week, at this rate.

16,000+ - currently
32,000 - next week
64,000 - in 2 weeks
128,000- in 3 weeks
256,000 - in one month
500,000 in 5 weeks
1 million in 6 weeks
2 million in 7 weeks...
 Quoting: JJ Johns


Huh.

I wonder how many of these include the homeless and such?
JJ Johns  (OP)
J to the 3rd

User ID: 78471388
Switzerland
03/24/2020 01:16 AM

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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
if we keep doubling every 6 days...

let's say every week, at this rate.

16,000+ - currently
32,000 - next week
64,000 - in 2 weeks
128,000- in 3 weeks
256,000 - in one month
500,000 in 5 weeks
1 million in 6 weeks
2 million in 7 weeks...
 Quoting: JJ Johns


HORYSHIT 5 GOLD STARS
 Quoting: Off Switch


3/18/20: COVID-19 deaths worldwide: 8,657 by 8:00 EST
3/23/20: COVID-19 deaths worldwide: 16,497 by 8:00 EST

So the deaths are actually doubling EVERY FIVE DAYS!

GUESS how many global and US cases by this Friday, 3/27/20??
Thread: Forecasting coronavirus spread: GUESS how many cases by next Friday............
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77069256


i started the thread when the deaths had hit 16,000, which was 6 days from approx. 8,000 to 16,000, and then rounded up to 7 day to make it easier to show here by week. so yes, it is actually accelerating. it took 8 days from 4,000 to 8,000... sure, i can guess on your thread...

.

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JJ Johns  (OP)
J to the 3rd

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03/24/2020 01:45 AM

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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
Thread is bs.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78676238


ah ok, because an AC moran says so, without any argument what so ever. i hope it does prove false, however, all i posted is the actual numbers as they stand, and extended out the numbers. moran

.

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JJ Johns  (OP)
J to the 3rd

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03/24/2020 01:49 AM

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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
This will level off very soon. You can’t assume it will continue to double when people are recovering. Your math leads to everyone on earth dead in a few months. The fact is that the vast majority of people who get this recover. Stop spreading fear.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77732153


i simply followed the numbers.

and, as i've stated many times on many of my threads and posts, it is also contingent on slowing this down by isolation.

to counter your argument, and something you don't understand is that there aren't enough ICU beds and ventilators and your hospitals may soon be overrun like they are now in italy.

Last Edited by JJ Johns on 03/24/2020 01:49 AM

.

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JJ Johns  (OP)
J to the 3rd

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03/24/2020 01:12 PM

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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
italy just reported with another 743 deaths today...

shit is about to go sideways :(

pray & stay inside.

it's just starting to hit the states, and trump, for some reason is saying the shut downs won't last long. i hope he doesn't end them too soon. stay safe hf

Last Edited by JJ Johns on 03/24/2020 01:12 PM

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Gorgol

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03/24/2020 04:05 PM
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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
Yesterday USA had doubled its deathcout = 100% increase

Today you have about 100 new deaths = 20% increase

Can you spot the trend

Or can you not

By the numbers, you know?

Last Edited by Gorgol on 03/24/2020 04:08 PM
JJ Johns  (OP)
J to the 3rd

User ID: 78471388
Switzerland
03/24/2020 04:08 PM

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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
Yesterday USA had doubled its deathcout = 100% increase

Today you have about 100 new deaths = 20% increase

Can you spot the trend

Or can you not

Mr. would-be by the numbers
 Quoting: Gorgol


my numbers were always based on the total mortality per day. and today, not over yet, has still increased over yesterday.

so far today 2,064

and, the increase over the last few days:
21.Mrz 1638
22.Mrz 1634
23.Mrz 1873
23.Mrz 1975


so, there's that. anything else you care to add?

.

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JJ Johns  (OP)
J to the 3rd

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03/24/2020 04:08 PM

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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
all right here if you want to check :
[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]

.

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Gorgol

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03/24/2020 04:09 PM
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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
Yesterday USA had doubled its deathcout = 100% increase

Today you have about 100 new deaths = 20% increase

Can you spot the trend

Or can you not

Mr. would-be by the numbers
 Quoting: Gorgol


my numbers were always based on the total mortality per day. and today, not over yet, has still increased over yesterday.

so far today 2,064

and, the increase over the last few days:
21.Mrz 1638
22.Mrz 1634
23.Mrz 1873
23.Mrz 1975


so, there's that. anything else you care to add?
 Quoting: JJ Johns


Yea, you must be stupid thinking seeing trends in cumulatives
Gorgol

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Netherlands
03/24/2020 04:11 PM
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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
all right here if you want to check :
[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]
 Quoting: JJ Johns


That is where I got my numbers dude

You do not get something very simple

Can't fix that

You are not alone

Neither can the media
JJ Johns  (OP)
J to the 3rd

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Switzerland
03/24/2020 04:15 PM

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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
all right here if you want to check :
[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]
 Quoting: JJ Johns


That is where I got my numbers dude

You do not get something very simple

Can't fix that

You are not alone

Neither can the media
 Quoting: Gorgol


i guess we will see soon enough.

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Gorgol

User ID: 78275908
Netherlands
03/24/2020 04:16 PM
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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
all right here if you want to check :
[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]
 Quoting: JJ Johns


That is where I got my numbers dude

You do not get something very simple

Can't fix that

You are not alone

Neither can the media
 Quoting: Gorgol


i guess we will see soon enough.
 Quoting: JJ Johns


No we already see

You don't
JJ Johns  (OP)
J to the 3rd

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Switzerland
03/24/2020 04:17 PM

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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
Yesterday USA had doubled its deathcout = 100% increase

Today you have about 100 new deaths = 20% increase

Can you spot the trend

Or can you not

Mr. would-be by the numbers
 Quoting: Gorgol


my numbers were always based on the total mortality per day. and today, not over yet, has still increased over yesterday.

so far today 2,064

and, the increase over the last few days:
21.Mrz 1638
22.Mrz 1634
23.Mrz 1873
23.Mrz 1975


so, there's that. anything else you care to add?
 Quoting: JJ Johns


Yea, you must be stupid thinking seeing trends in cumulatives
 Quoting: Gorgol


luckily, i don't give a shit about what random nobodies on the interwebs, like you, think of me or my abilities. your insults make me chuckle. thanks for that! hf

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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 68091992
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03/24/2020 04:21 PM
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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
That website has the numbers EXCLUDING China available.

Doubling every few days is linear. This is a natural virus so it acts exponentially which is nonlinear. Look at the difference it starts close to the same, but exponential blows ups.


Linear:

1*2=2
2*2=4
3*2=6
4*2=8
5*2=10
6*2=12
7*2=14
8*2=16
9*2=18
10*2=20
20*2=40
30*2=60
40*2=80
50*2=100
100*2=200

Exponential:

1^2=1
2^2=4
3^2=9
4^2=16
5^2=25
6^2=36
7^2=49
8^2=64
9^2=81
10^2=100
20^2=400
30^2=900
40^2=1600
50^2=2500
100^2=100000
Gorgol

User ID: 78275908
Netherlands
03/24/2020 04:28 PM
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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
Yesterday USA had doubled its deathcout = 100% increase

Today you have about 100 new deaths = 20% increase

Can you spot the trend

Or can you not

Mr. would-be by the numbers
 Quoting: Gorgol


my numbers were always based on the total mortality per day. and today, not over yet, has still increased over yesterday.

so far today 2,064

and, the increase over the last few days:
21.Mrz 1638
22.Mrz 1634
23.Mrz 1873
23.Mrz 1975


so, there's that. anything else you care to add?
 Quoting: JJ Johns


Yea, you must be stupid thinking seeing trends in cumulatives
 Quoting: Gorgol


luckily, i don't give a shit about what random nobodies on the interwebs, like you, think of me or my abilities. your insults make me chuckle. thanks for that! hf
 Quoting: JJ Johns


Glad it doesn't hurt
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78651417
United Kingdom
03/24/2020 06:11 PM
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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
Date Mortality Doubling in /Days

28.Jan 132
31.Jan 259 3 days
04.Feb 492 4 days
10.Feb 1018 6 Days
18.Feb 2009 8 Days
09.Mrz 4025 20 Days
17.Mrz 7978 8 Days
23.Mrz 16125 6 Days


i've been watching the numbers, and the doubling of the mortality rate is speeding up.

we hit 16,000 deaths today. 6 days after we hit approximately 8,000.

--- add---

even worse is that this exponential growth is accelerating!

have a look at the numbers from the past few days, and note today, isn't even over yet.

DATE / Daily / Total Deaths
18.Mar...973.....8951
19.Mar...1080....10031
20.Mar...1356....11387
21.Mar...1638....13025
22.Mar...1634....14659
23.Mar...1697....16356

all the stats are from the link below.

[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]
 Quoting: JJ Johns


Lol and Trump said the virus is nothing to worry about.
JJ Johns  (OP)
J to the 3rd

User ID: 78471388
Switzerland
03/24/2020 08:23 PM

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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
Date Mortality Doubling in /Days

28.Jan 132
31.Jan 259 3 days
04.Feb 492 4 days
10.Feb 1018 6 Days
18.Feb 2009 8 Days
09.Mrz 4025 20 Days
17.Mrz 7978 8 Days
23.Mrz 16125 6 Days
[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]


i've been watching the numbers, and the doubling of the mortality rate is speeding up.

we hit 16,000 deaths today. 6 days after we hit approximately 8,000.

--- add---

even worse is that this exponential growth is accelerating!

have a look at the numbers from the past few days, and note today, isn't even over yet.

DATE / Daily / Total Deaths
18.Mar...973.....8951
19.Mar...1080....10031
20.Mar...1356....11387
21.Mar...1638....13025
22.Mar...1634....14659
23.Mar...1697....16356
24.Mar...2296....18810

all the stats are from the link below.

[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]
 Quoting: JJ Johns


Lol and Trump said the virus is nothing to worry about.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78651417


stats go until 12 GMT and today, not yet over, is already 2,296
[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]

Last Edited by JJ Johns on 03/24/2020 08:26 PM

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JADR+

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03/24/2020 08:47 PM
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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
Date Mortality Doubling in /Days

28.Jan 132
31.Jan 259 3 days
04.Feb 492 4 days
10.Feb 1018 6 Days
18.Feb 2009 8 Days
09.Mrz 4025 20 Days
17.Mrz 7978 8 Days
23.Mrz 16125 6 Days
[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]


i've been watching the numbers, and the doubling of the mortality rate is speeding up.

we hit 16,000 deaths today. 6 days after we hit approximately 8,000.

--- add---

even worse is that this exponential growth is accelerating!

have a look at the numbers from the past few days, and note today, isn't even over yet.

DATE / Daily / Total Deaths
18.Mar...973.....8951
19.Mar...1080....10031
20.Mar...1356....11387
21.Mar...1638....13025
22.Mar...1634....14659
23.Mar...1697....16356
24.Mar...2296....18810

all the stats are from the link below.

[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]
 Quoting: JJ Johns


Lol and Trump said the virus is nothing to worry about.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78651417


stats go until 12 GMT and today, not yet over, is already 2,296
[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]
 Quoting: JJ Johns


In less than two weeks it will reach 10,000 a day
Try the steak sauce test

Thread: Steak sauce question (Mandela effect)

JADR+
JJ Johns  (OP)
J to the 3rd

User ID: 78471388
Switzerland
03/24/2020 08:52 PM

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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
Date Mortality Doubling in /Days

28.Jan 132
31.Jan 259 3 days
04.Feb 492 4 days
10.Feb 1018 6 Days
18.Feb 2009 8 Days
09.Mrz 4025 20 Days
17.Mrz 7978 8 Days
23.Mrz 16125 6 Days
[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]


i've been watching the numbers, and the doubling of the mortality rate is speeding up.

we hit 16,000 deaths today. 6 days after we hit approximately 8,000.

--- add---

even worse is that this exponential growth is accelerating!

have a look at the numbers from the past few days, and note today, isn't even over yet.

DATE / Daily / Total Deaths
18.Mar...973.....8951
19.Mar...1080....10031
20.Mar...1356....11387
21.Mar...1638....13025
22.Mar...1634....14659
23.Mar...1697....16356
24.Mar...2296....18810

all the stats are from the link below.

[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]
 Quoting: JJ Johns


Lol and Trump said the virus is nothing to worry about.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78651417


stats go until 12 GMT and today, not yet over, is already 2,296
[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]
 Quoting: JJ Johns


In less than two weeks it will reach 10,000 a day
 Quoting: JADR+


sadly, i agree.

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wisconsin

User ID: 78259322
United States
03/25/2020 03:41 PM

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Re: DEATHS DOUBLING EVERY WEEK! Exponential Growth!
Our most up-to-date data and annotations
[link to covidtracking.com (secure)]
Last synced with our spreadsheet: 3/25 15:04 ET

Positive
60,443

Negative
325,282

Pos + Neg
385,725

Pending
Hospitalized
5,625

Death
826

Total
400,474

US Totals
.

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