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I did some COVID-19 number crunching on USA, Italy and Argentina. Surprising results. What do you think?

 
Ludwig von Mises
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Argentina
03/25/2020 02:16 PM
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I did some COVID-19 number crunching on USA, Italy and Argentina. Surprising results. What do you think?
What the Italy data tells me is that COVID-19 is decimating sick people and elderly that would have died later in the year. Hence the overrun hospitals. Also worth noting that CDC stats show "normal" flu infections to be 80% below normal so far in 2020. I am not trying to tin foil hat you guys or anything. Would like to know what everyone thinks about these stats. Maybe I am missing something?

Argentina 2018 according to Ministry of Health (pop. 45,000,000 approx.)
Pneumonia and flu deaths 31,916 en 2018
Daily deaths: 87
COVID-19 deaths: 8
Delta to catch up to flu season: 31,908

USA 2019 according to CDC (pop. 350,000,000 approx.)
Flu deaths 34,200 en 2019
Pneumonia deaths 49,157 en 2019
Total 2019: 83,357
Daily deaths: 228
COVID-19 deaths: 544
Delta to catch up to flu season: 82.813

Italy 2017 according to Istituto superiore di sanità and Health Ministry (pop 60,000,000 approx.)
Flu deaths 10,000 in 2017 (estimated)
Pneumonia deaths 13,471
Total 2017: 23,471
Daily deaths: 64
COVID-19 deaths: 7,503
Delta to catch up to flu season: 15,968

Taking into account these numbers, somewhat successful alternative treatments, and a lot of mumbling around the world of lifting restrictions growing by the day, is this not as bad as we anticipated?

Is there data showing this is worse than we are being told?

Is 50% of the UK really infected already ( [link to www.dailywire.com (secure)]

Has COVID-19 replaced the "normal" flu this year?

Were all the nasty flues that many of my colleagues and friends had since mid-December to now COVID-19?

Maybe this has been running rampant for four months already.

What do you think?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14931885
United States
03/25/2020 02:29 PM
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Re: I did some COVID-19 number crunching on USA, Italy and Argentina. Surprising results. What do you think?
I was at a huge Chicago hospital this week. They were completely prepared for COVID. Everything basically shut down. No cars in the parking garage. Barely any I mean.

However.

The e r was set up fior COVID patients.

However. The public area coming in from the parking garage had about 15 people a mix of employees doctors and people with zero PPE on.

Does anyone else find this as surprising as I do?

I would think the entire hospital would be in PPE and full masks.

This was nit the case at all.

I can’t figure it out.





GLP