Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model

WOAH I WAS ONCE ENGAGED TO A MEMBER OF THE STEWART CLAN. o.0

WOW! Dr. Fauci in New England Journal of Medicine Concedes the Coronavirus Mortality Rate May Be Much Closer to a Very Bad Flu

Last week:
Director Dr. Anthony Fauci told reporters during the daily White House press conference, “I strongly agree” with the New York and California governors for shutting down their state economies.

This was based on the highly flawed models on the coronavirus that were being peddled at that time.

But what a difference a week makes!

On Thursday Dr. Fauci co-authored a report on the coronavirus in the New England Journal of Medicine.

In the report Dr. Fauci now argues that the mortality rate of the coronavirus may be much closer to a very bad flu.

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Dr. Birx Admits Initial COVID-19 Predictions Were Wildly Exaggerated

"Dr. Birx: “The predictions of the models don’t match the reality on the ground in either China, South Korea, or Italy. We’re about 5 times the size of Italy. If we were Italy, and you did those divisions, Italy should have close to 400,000 deaths. They’re not close to achieving that.”

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Only problem? That editorial came out Feb. 28th.
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Last Edited by In Yer Neck on 03/27/2020 09:52 AM

Did you happen to notice the post just above yours? The one claiming on live tv that their models/projections were shit?

Misleading BS thread

Woopsy! Do you even read what you post, bro?

Ferguson explained, “I should admit, we’ve always been sensitive in the analysis in the modeling to a variety of levels or values to those quantities. What we’ve been seeing, though, in Europe in the last week or two is a rate of growth of the epidemic which was faster than we expected from early data in China. And so we are revising our quotes, our central best estimate of the reproduction… something more, a little bit above of the order of three or a little bit above rather than about 2.5.” He added, “the current values are still within the wide range of values which modeling groups [unintelligible] we should have been looking at previously.”

Hmm… SEIU Union in California Suddenly Finds Mysterious Stash of 39 Million Face Masks — 3 Days After AG Bill Barr Announces They’re Going After Hoarders

Attorney General Barr: "If you have a big supply of toilet paper in your house, this is not something you have to worry about. But if you are sitting on a warehouse with masks, surgical masks, you will be hearing a knock on your door."

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Then on Thursday the SEIU Healthcare Workers West announced they had located a mysterious stash of 39 million N95 face masks.
What wonderful news!

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Last Edited by Blue Fairy on 03/27/2020 10:14 AM

Yes, but we have taken action. If we didn't then we would see far more deaths than what he predicted in the first place!

He is an idiot lmao.

Because of the lockdown the numbers were revised down.

If there was no lockdown the numbers would have remained unchanged.

Are people that stupid?

Everyone in uk is still out and about despite lockdown... no contagion has been limited, and if it was as contagious as initially stated, all would have had it by the time "lockdown" came into force.

Plus..
[link to www.gov.uk (secure)]

Covid is not a high consequence infectious disease (hcid) according to government.

Government Definition of hcid:
"
-acute infectious disease
-typically has a high case-fatality ratemay not have effective prophylaxis or treatment
-Often difficult to recognise and detect rapidly
-ability to spread in the community and within healthcare settings
-Requires an enhanced individual, population and system response to ensure it is managed effectively, efficiently and safely


I.e. all the things you say it is, government says it is not. The actions you say are/ have been needed, and are beneficial, are not.

While I don't like Ferguson and think he's a buttwipe, this post is fakenews as well.

Ferguson and IC did NOT say 500,000 UK citizens would die. They provided predictions for three different scenarios based on the data they had. They predicted that if NOTHING was done that 500,000 UK citizens would die.

Ferguson went before the MPs to provide revised numbers since not only the UK, but the rest of the EU was taking preventative measures.

Let me clarify again -- I don't buy into the fear mongering, I'm right-wing as it gets, and I think Ferguson is a piece of garbage leftist. But with that said, this article is pure 100% fake news from the right to try and prove a point.

Ferguson did not admit to being wrong. In fact, the revised numbers actually back him and IC's work up in that lockdowns like we saw in China work and were required.

This just makes us look bad.

Wait, so you're literally trusting the government and their information to rail against the government and their information?

I'd love to hear your explanation for what is happening in Italy, Iran, and China. Legitimately. Please explain to me why Covid is not very contagious, has a .1% or less fatality rate, and is not as dangerous as the flu despite what we're seeing.

No im dispelling the false idea that government is saying this is an hcid.

They all know it is not. I cam take apart the figs for each country you mention but its been done already. Restrictions and lockdown are for a different purpose - we do have restrictions and lockdown in uk too btw despite governments own io
saying covid is not a threat

86% of cases asymptomatic. R factor is 4. Multiply infection rate by 9 and then by 4 for each day, entire population coverage. And that ignores how many have systoms and infection unxounted by official test.

Food for thought

Thread: Corona - it's a literal robbery

In addition you looking at anecdotal evidence which is not scientific.

In addition presentd numbers by media do.jot provide context. Covid death numbers include persons dying of other diseases, just that they ested pos for corona. Once someone tests pos, they do not test for anything else, meaning corona may not have caused the death.

Death figs are not outside normal daily statistical variance of limitations. 55million die a yesr world wide. 550k a month uk average. I can quote Italy etc but u would do well to analyse some numbers yourself so you learn rather than continuing a spoon fed info diet.

Average flu deaths in itsly over 1600 a day. Average. Some times more than double. This is from official data.

Many deaths that should be in the flu column are being recorded as corona, purely because they tested pos for it. In science the result does not prove the cause.

So if he was wrong before, what makes you think he is right now?

He obviously doesn't know what he's talking about since he flipflops this way or that way.

Time to find another epidemiologist to give an opinion on what to expect.

There are plenty of people who get trained/get schooling for a subject and then do not keep up to date, or forget a lot. Never trust what one "expert" says. This is why you hear the term "Peer Reviewed". Medical articles/studies that are peer-reviewed are more respected because they are examined and agreed upon by many experts, not just one.

You are choosing to believe gov advice re actions and policy, which they say is based on science, when science,eveb their science says otherwise.

U dont want to believe governemnt written info, say i am stupid to do so, but then you want to believe their death counts.

Contradictory it seems. Doe that make u stupid?

The maths are simple sums. The data is all available on the net. Do it yourself

Early models are “now being understood to have been really wrong,” Pence said in a Friday CNBC appearance. "We're really following the data here: ,n terms of the infection rate that we've seen, what we know of China, the data from South Korea, from Italy, from other places around the world."

Pence added: "The truth of the matter is that it does appear to be significantly lower than a lot of the projections were."

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Just the numbers.

But he stands by his original projection, which doesn't match his new projection.

Got it!