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Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model

 
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2020 02:57 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
Expect a lot more of that now that the 1% is taking a financial beating.
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2020 02:57 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
Whoopsy! Can we all go back to work now and all the idiots on here who have been posting about how this is going to kill millions, crawl back under a rock?

[link to www.dailywire.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Big Daddy D


Seems trump knows this that why he pushing after the peak to get people back to work....
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78689221



He actually KNEW this from the start - not this specific study, but his own common sense, of which he has plenty, told him that this thing was no worse or different than the flu....WHICH IS TRUE...and that it would be over soon. BUT....he cowed to pressure from the rest of the System that wanted to create this panic for this own purposes. HE SHOULD NOT HAVE DONE THAT. I can understand it....but it was the wrong thing to do.
 Quoting: Blue State Rebel


He shouldn't have but the way it's being politicized with all the "experts" the only choice he had was to go along with it and figure out another way to get out of it. Which he is doing now. I would not want to be in his position.

Fauchi and Brix are Communists. He needs to fire both of their asses today.
Big Daddy D  (OP)

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03/26/2020 02:57 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
They should take this guy and skin him
alive, and all the global warmers with him,
and televise it globally.

MAYBE then we could (temporarily anyway)
put a stake through the heart of the
NEW WORLD ORDER.

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78688052


I like the way you think. Speaking of global warmers they need to skin alive...dicaprio-agree
HWR
The US is a One Party State controlled by a small cadre of Financiers
Big Daddy D
Anonymous Coward
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Estonia
03/26/2020 02:58 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
They should take this guy and skin him
alive, and all the global warmers with him,
and televise it globally.

MAYBE then we could (temporarily anyway)
put a stake through the heart of the
NEW WORLD ORDER.

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78688052



I am of the same sympathies but being of a gentler nature, would just line them up and shoot them. After a trial, of course, we wouldn't want to be "vigilantes".
 Quoting: Blue State Rebel


[email protected]
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2020 02:58 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
We're at 20k dead already. Wanna try again?
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2020 02:58 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
Did you.... Did you read his revision? He's revising them down BECAUSE the social distancing is working. He's not telling everyone to get back to work tomorow.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77740839



That is not fucking true. HE MADE A FUCKING MISTAKE. You people cannot win this by truth, logic or any other means. YOU'RE JUST WRONG.

Again....from the article:

"However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. "
 Quoting: Blue State Rebel


Bingo.
 Quoting: Big Daddy D


Anyone with any fucking brains knows this shit is ENDEMIC in the worlds population and has been since AT LEAST early October in the United States. It's a bad virus, but not the Spanish flu. The main reason it isnt as deadly as expected is simple, because genetically altered organisms self destruct in nature, with no exceptions I know of yet.
Blue State Rebel

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03/26/2020 02:58 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
Let me repeat this for you SLOW children:

Here are two lines from the article (my bolding):

"Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.""


I would say that a drop from 500,000 dead i UK alone to 20,000 is QUITE A FUCKING CHANGE.
 Quoting: Blue State Rebel


Shit son, that's less then the flu
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76798092



I don't know what the flu is in UK annually but it's about our flu figure here in the USA each year. It's certainly a radical change and I don't know how this asshole can face the world again after the chaos he and his colleagues have created.

AND PLEASE DON'T FORGET:

THESE ARE THE SAME GROUP OF ASSHOLES WHO PROMOTE MAN MADE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE USING THE SAME FLAWED OR FAKED FIGURES AND ANALYSIS.

In fact, I think there's a link between these SCAMS.
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2020 02:58 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
Whoopsy! Can we all go back to work now and all the idiots on here who have been posting about how this is going to kill millions, crawl back under a rock?

[link to www.dailywire.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Big Daddy D


After 3 months less than a 1000 people have died


It does seem like we might be being played for suckers
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73086834


Tried to point that out and was attacked. Assuming it was spreading already, it means it went everywhere already.
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2020 02:58 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
It's not that social distancing is working - but that it's that the virus has been around a lot longer than he thought when he put together his model.

Faulty assumption. Not action on anyone's part.
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2020 02:58 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
Whoopsy! Can we all go back to work now and all the idiots on here who have been posting about how this is going to kill millions, crawl back under a rock?

[link to www.dailywire.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Big Daddy D


Daily Wire, huh?

Well, here's the thing. Don't you think that there is tremendous pressure to make Covid a non-issue since it is crippling the world in the range of trillions of dollars in trade?

It's a mis-info piece. The guy is not wrong. The death tolls are going exponential now and the numbers prove it.

You've been mis-info-ed and fell for it. So maybe you can crawl under a rock.

I know people with this and it is no flu and it is not something that is going to just disappear. So deal with it.

People like you are the reason why it spreads. Don't be a fool. Or if you are a fool, then please by all mean catch it and let it take its toll on you. Hopefully you will not post nonsense like this in the future from a lesson learned.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77403814



People like you are the reason why the world has been plunged into depression for no good reason, while all of our most basic freedoms have been removed.

Don’t be a fool. We know the truth. And we won’t forget.

Hopefully you will not spew fake panic nonsense like this in the future and have learned *your* lesson.
Big Daddy D  (OP)

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03/26/2020 02:59 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
Whoopsy! Can we all go back to work now and all the idiots on here who have been posting about how this is going to kill millions, crawl back under a rock?

[link to www.dailywire.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Big Daddy D


After 3 months less than a 1000 people have died


It does seem like we might be being played for suckers
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73086834


Sheeple...including the several top ranking GLP members. ;)
HWR
The US is a One Party State controlled by a small cadre of Financiers
Big Daddy D
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2020 02:59 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
Nothingburgers take the lead in a YUGE way!
Big Daddy D  (OP)

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03/26/2020 03:00 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
Did you.... Did you read his revision? He's revising them down BECAUSE the social distancing is working. He's not telling everyone to get back to work tomorow.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77740839



That is not fucking true. HE MADE A FUCKING MISTAKE. You people cannot win this by truth, logic or any other means. YOU'RE JUST WRONG.

Again....from the article:

"However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. "
 Quoting: Blue State Rebel


Bingo.
 Quoting: Big Daddy D


Anyone with any fucking brains knows this shit is ENDEMIC in the worlds population and has been since AT LEAST early October in the United States. It's a bad virus, but not the Spanish flu. The main reason it isnt as deadly as expected is simple, because genetically altered organisms self destruct in nature, with no exceptions I know of yet.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73086834


I'm still not completely sold that China didn't manufacture it to kill off their elderly due the lack of younger Chinese entering the work force due their decades long policy of one child per family. I wouldn't put it past a communist government to kill off millions one way or another. We've seen it many times before.
HWR
The US is a One Party State controlled by a small cadre of Financiers
Big Daddy D
Blue State Rebel

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03/26/2020 03:00 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
Did you.... Did you read his revision? He's revising them down BECAUSE the social distancing is working. He's not telling everyone to get back to work tomorow.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77740839



That is not fucking true. HE MADE A FUCKING MISTAKE. You people cannot win this by truth, logic or any other means. YOU'RE JUST WRONG.

Again....from the article:

"However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. "
 Quoting: Blue State Rebel


Bingo.
 Quoting: Big Daddy D


Anyone with any fucking brains knows this shit is ENDEMIC in the worlds population and has been since AT LEAST early October in the United States. It's a bad virus, but not the Spanish flu. The main reason it isnt as deadly as expected is simple, because genetically altered organisms self destruct in nature, with no exceptions I know of yet.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73086834



Yes....yes, you are right. This thing has existed...actually for who knows how long before they "discovered" it....and probably existed already in much of the world's population which is WHY they are getting positive results WITH NO SYMPTOMS. Most of these people at some point had a mild cold or flu or respiratory illness which was this virus and that's......all.

I cannot think of a punishment bad enough for these hoaxers. Well.....I can, but it's rather gothic and involves the use of precision instruments in a most unpleasant fashion.

I don't think these people should just be allowed to.....go back to their, no doubt, government funded research.
Anonymous Coward
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Italy
03/26/2020 03:01 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
Whoopsy! Can we all go back to work now and all the idiots on here who have been posting about how this is going to kill millions, crawl back under a rock?

[link to www.dailywire.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Big Daddy D


After 3 months less than a 1000 people have died


It does seem like we might be being played for suckers
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73086834


Tried to point that out and was attacked. Assuming it was spreading already, it means it went everywhere already.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76798092


Been saying this all along. Got banned for it.
Gee I wonder why?

Oh, right. Because this forum has been compromised.
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2020 03:01 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
We're at 20k dead already. Wanna try again?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77621441


ANd in that same time frame, more people died crossing the street getting hit by a bus 20,000 isnt even a drop in a bucket of an estimated 8 billion people


.......20,000
8,000,000,000

2 out of 80,000 have died thus far, about 1/100th of the MURDER RATE in rural Texas
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2020 03:02 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
The United States should have been wary of using any academic advice from Imperial College of London before this.
Blue State Rebel

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03/26/2020 03:02 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
...



That is not fucking true. HE MADE A FUCKING MISTAKE. You people cannot win this by truth, logic or any other means. YOU'RE JUST WRONG.

Again....from the article:

"However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. "
 Quoting: Blue State Rebel


Bingo.
 Quoting: Big Daddy D


Anyone with any fucking brains knows this shit is ENDEMIC in the worlds population and has been since AT LEAST early October in the United States. It's a bad virus, but not the Spanish flu. The main reason it isnt as deadly as expected is simple, because genetically altered organisms self destruct in nature, with no exceptions I know of yet.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73086834


I'm still not completely sold that China didn't manufacture it to kill off their elderly due the lack of younger Chinese entering the work force due their decades long policy of one child per family. I wouldn't put it past a communist government to kill off millions one way or another. We've seen it many times before.
 Quoting: Big Daddy D



I've always made a distinction between whatever happened in China and what was happening here. I don't know what happened in China, maybe we can never know because it's a shut down society. Hermetically sealed, totally Orwellian. It's the model they want for us.

But it's been obvious from Day 1 that nothing very serious was going on here and now...well...there's the proof.
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2020 03:03 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
Ok nothing burgers, get out there and prove em all wrong. Dont take precautions, hang out with sick folk, volunteer to work with California homeless or New York hospitals.

Its not a win or lose argument, time will answer that. And the numbers rise steadily. Hospitals across Europe under strain, that happens with regular flu right?
I mean we must have to build makeshift hospitals every flu season dont we?
Blue State Rebel

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United States
03/26/2020 03:04 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
We're at 20k dead already. Wanna try again?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77621441


ANd in that same time frame, more people died crossing the street getting hit by a bus 20,000 isnt even a drop in a bucket of an estimated 8 billion people


.......20,000
8,000,000,000

2 out of 80,000 have died thus far, about 1/100th of the MURDER RATE in rural Texas
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73086834



Also, my own belief is that they are probably mis-categorizing the dead because they have to SUPPORT their failed pandemic. So elderly or sick people who died from respiratory illness they would have died from anyway, or heart failure, or whatever, during this time frame, are being said to have died from COVID-19.

THEY ARE SIMPLY LYING.
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2020 03:04 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
Did you.... Did you read his revision? He's revising them down BECAUSE the social distancing is working. He's not telling everyone to get back to work tomorow.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77740839



That is not fucking true. HE MADE A FUCKING MISTAKE. You people cannot win this by truth, logic or any other means. YOU'RE JUST WRONG.

Again....from the article:

"However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. "
 Quoting: Blue State Rebel


So, you didn't read his revision, you just read this article with cherry-picked facts.

Uh, okay.
Big Daddy D  (OP)

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03/26/2020 03:05 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
We're at 20k dead already. Wanna try again?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77621441


20K...mostly elderly or those with pre-existing medical conditions that most doctors would agree that said victims would be lucky to survive the remainder of the year...i.e. they were going to die sooner or later.

It sucks, but this virus isn't taking young, healthy kids or adults and just laying waste to them by the millions. It's barely affecting.

Use some common sense. Quit posting stupid drivel.
HWR
The US is a One Party State controlled by a small cadre of Financiers
Big Daddy D
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2020 03:05 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
Ok nothing burgers, get out there and prove em all wrong. Dont take precautions, hang out with sick folk, volunteer to work with California homeless or New York hospitals.

Its not a win or lose argument, time will answer that. And the numbers rise steadily. Hospitals across Europe under strain, that happens with regular flu right?
I mean we must have to build makeshift hospitals every flu season dont we?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77621441


Ive already had it, back in October. Half the people in my town did, and 2 did die. @ 2000 population
Wookiee666

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03/26/2020 03:06 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
MORAN

he DIDNT "revised" his model, just said that NOW that "measures" finally TOOK place, in UK, deaths will fall behind 20k - his previous numbers were if NO ONE measure was done

[link to www.newscientist.com (secure)]

despite the "model" IS flawed, thread argument is full BS

UNPIN THIS SHIT SCAM so REALLY RELEVANT threads can be pinned
 Quoting: sunwatcher



Here are two lines from the article (my bolding):

"Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.""


I would say that a drop from 500,000 dead i UK alone to 20,000 is QUITE A FUCKING CHANGE.
 Quoting: Blue State Rebel


“He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. — more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case [because] they were so old and sick,” he wrote.
Warning: JustSomeGuy_42 is a publicly confessed unvaxxed neophiliac .

If the number 666 is considered evil.
then technically, 25.8069758 is the root
of all evil.
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2020 03:06 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
People keep pointing out the "Underlying conditions" thing as if that makes them safe.... Like a third of all americans have high blood pressure.
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2020 03:06 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
Oh right, I forgot, all of Europe is in on the lie.
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2020 03:07 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
Ok nothing burgers, get out there and prove em all wrong. Dont take precautions, hang out with sick folk, volunteer to work with California homeless or New York hospitals.

Its not a win or lose argument, time will answer that. And the numbers rise steadily. Hospitals across Europe under strain, that happens with regular flu right?
I mean we must have to build makeshift hospitals every flu season dont we?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77621441


Ive already had it, back in October. Half the people in my town did, and 2 did die. @ 2000 population
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73086834


Incredible that you're able to know what virus infected you and half your town months before any tests were made to figure out what it was.

I suppose god told you it was Covid-19?
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2020 03:07 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
We're at 20k dead already. Wanna try again?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77621441


ANd in that same time frame, more people died crossing the street getting hit by a bus 20,000 isnt even a drop in a bucket of an estimated 8 billion people


.......20,000
8,000,000,000

2 out of 80,000 have died thus far, about 1/100th of the MURDER RATE in rural Texas
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73086834



Also, my own belief is that they are probably mis-categorizing the dead because they have to SUPPORT their failed pandemic. So elderly or sick people who died from respiratory illness they would have died from anyway, or heart failure, or whatever, during this time frame, are being said to have died from COVID-19.

THEY ARE SIMPLY LYING.
 Quoting: Blue State Rebel


This is a definite possibility. When someone is over 80 years old and in bad health, a virus killing them is quite normal. They can even die of the common cold, as many do
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2020 03:07 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
Whoopsy! Can we all go back to work now and all the idiots on here who have been posting about how this is going to kill millions, crawl back under a rock?

[link to www.dailywire.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Big Daddy D


Its so obvious... once they get their structural change via stimulus etc, social programming... the “virus” will recede. Lol.
Big Daddy D  (OP)

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03/26/2020 03:08 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind highly cited model admits he was wrong and drastically revises model
Ok nothing burgers, get out there and prove em all wrong. Dont take precautions, hang out with sick folk, volunteer to work with California homeless or New York hospitals.

Its not a win or lose argument, time will answer that. And the numbers rise steadily. Hospitals across Europe under strain, that happens with regular flu right?
I mean we must have to build makeshift hospitals every flu season dont we?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77621441


Ive already had it, back in October. Half the people in my town did, and 2 did die. @ 2000 population
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73086834


.1% What were their ages?
HWR
The US is a One Party State controlled by a small cadre of Financiers
Big Daddy D





GLP