SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 | |
Jungleboogie
User ID: 76648271 Canada 03/31/2020 06:14 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 The current flu season is now winding down. These are the Preliminary Burden Estimates for the 2019-2020 Flu Season from the CDC. Quoting: Doc Savage Note that the figures for these four categories are only mid-line compared to the CDC estimate ranges. U.S. Influenza-Related from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 46,000,000 MEDICAL VISITS: 22,000,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 565,000 DEATHS: 43,000 (including 100 children) Interesting Doc, Let's take the 200,000 estimated covid deaths total and work that backwards through those ratios: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 80 million MEDICAL VISITS: 40 million HOSPITALIZATIONS: 2.2 million DEATHS: 200,000 That would be crammed into a month and a half instead of the six months, wow. That lines up with Cuomo raising the amount of ICUs needed from 110,000 to 140,000 for New York alone. Some of those ICUs will be used 2 or 3 times within that time period of course. The final stats will depend if the US starts playing with the official death count moving the goalposts as to what determines covid death like China did and Italy's equally BS numbers. By the best estimates, COVID-19 is going to hit its peak in the U.S. sometime during the next few weeks. With that, and with effective treatments now being distributed, there's no way today's U.S. death total of 3,424 is going to balloon to anywhere near 200,000. I sincerely hope your right Doc. 200k is the number the asshat Harvardtards are throwing around. Embrace the cognitive dissonance. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 75777156 United States 03/31/2020 06:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78689036 United States 03/31/2020 06:34 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 This part is extremely relevant - Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77963234 "HOSPITALIZATIONS: 565,000 DEATHS: 43,000 (including 100 children)" Given the current state of hype relating to covid-19 Well see it's like this. Those 565000 hospitalizations were spread out over a few months so the hospitals could handle it. Those 22000 hospitalizations from covid19 have been spread out over a few months so it overloaded the system. We also need about 10 times as many ventilators as hospital cases because reasons. Makes perfect sense when you think about it! Hopefully this clears some of that up. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 76800079 United States 03/31/2020 07:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 The current flu season is now winding down. These are the Preliminary Burden Estimates for the 2019-2020 Flu Season from the CDC. Quoting: Doc Savage Note that the figures for these four categories are only mid-line compared to the CDC estimate ranges. U.S. Influenza-Related from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 46,000,000 MEDICAL VISITS: 22,000,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 565,000 DEATHS: 43,000 (including 100 children) [link to www.cdc.gov (secure)] Here are the U.S. COVID-19 stats as of March 31, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 175,669 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 22,000 DEATHS: 3,424 [link to www.worldometers.info (secure)] World Health Organization mid-line estimate for Influenza during 2019-2020 Flu Season: GLOBAL DEATHS: 470,000 TOTAL GLOBAL COVID-19 DEATHS AS OF 3/31/20: 37,272 I'm exhausted with this tiresome logic. "it's just the flu!" REAL PERSPECTIVE based on percentages that you conveniently left out (AMERICA NUMBERS ONLY) Hospitalizations FLU 1.2% COVID-19 12.5% (An absolutely astronomical number that regardless of healthcare system, cannot handle very efficiently.) DEATHS FLU .09% COVID-19 1.9% Actual deaths based on outcome Recovered vs death 37.49% It takes Yes that number will go down, however Italy is still at 44% because people don't die in 24 hours of getting covid-19, they suffer for a few weeks and then die. Many are not recovering, their death is delayed. If it was just the flu you would not be in knockdown. |
sunwatcher
User ID: 78710480 Brazil 03/31/2020 07:21 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 76800079 United States 03/31/2020 07:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 The current flu season is now winding down. These are the Preliminary Burden Estimates for the 2019-2020 Flu Season from the CDC. Quoting: Doc Savage Note that the figures for these four categories are only mid-line compared to the CDC estimate ranges. U.S. Influenza-Related from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 46,000,000 MEDICAL VISITS: 22,000,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 565,000 DEATHS: 43,000 (including 100 children) Interesting Doc, Let's take the 200,000 estimated covid deaths total and work that backwards through those ratios: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 80 million MEDICAL VISITS: 40 million HOSPITALIZATIONS: 2.2 million DEATHS: 200,000 That would be crammed into a month and a half instead of the six months, wow. That lines up with Cuomo raising the amount of ICUs needed from 110,000 to 140,000 for New York alone. Some of those ICUs will be used 2 or 3 times within that time period of course. The final stats will depend if the US starts playing with the official death count moving the goalposts as to what determines covid death like China did and Italy's equally BS numbers. By the best estimates, COVID-19 is going to hit its peak in the U.S. sometime during the next few weeks. With that, and with effective treatments now being distributed, there's no way today's U.S. death total of 3,424 is going to balloon to anywhere near 200,000. it has been more then doubling each week Mar 24th: 780 Mar 31st: 3,849 If only doubling each week April 7th: 7698 April 14th: 15,396 (at this point NYC health care system would be in collapse . Yes I understand not all deaths in the US are in NYC. Also the more than likely point of no return in NYC) April 21st: 30,792 April 28th: 61,584 May 5th: 123,168 May 12th: 246,336 |
Hitokiri
User ID: 29352995 United States 03/31/2020 07:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 I'll use statistics from Italy and extrapolate to the USAs population and compare them to OPs flu related deaths. Quoting: Tassie Lurker Currently Italy has a population of 60 million. They have lost just under 12,500 lives so far, with deaths not in decline (has not peaked yet). If we extrapolate the death rate to the USAs current population, 327 million, just over 68,000 would have died so far... Italy's covid19 deaths have occurred in just ONE month, so lets times the USAs deaths, 68k, by 12.. around 820,000 deaths compared to the estimated 43k flu related deaths.. Imagine if Italy had not shut down, had not taken any precautions.. Covid19 smashes the flu, if you use Italy's stats. Italy has the highest death rate by far. They average about 11% where the rest of the workk ly d is like 5%. "We learn from history that we learn nothing from history." - George Bernard Shaw |
Hitokiri
User ID: 29352995 United States 03/31/2020 07:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 The current flu season is now winding down. These are the Preliminary Burden Estimates for the 2019-2020 Flu Season from the CDC. Quoting: Doc Savage Note that the figures for these four categories are only mid-line compared to the CDC estimate ranges. U.S. Influenza-Related from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 46,000,000 MEDICAL VISITS: 22,000,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 565,000 DEATHS: 43,000 (including 100 children) [link to www.cdc.gov (secure)] Here are the U.S. COVID-19 stats as of March 31, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 175,669 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 22,000 DEATHS: 3,424 [link to www.worldometers.info (secure)] World Health Organization mid-line estimate for Influenza during 2019-2020 Flu Season: GLOBAL DEATHS: 470,000 TOTAL GLOBAL COVID-19 DEATHS AS OF 3/31/20: 37,272 I'm exhausted with this tiresome logic. "it's just the flu!" REAL PERSPECTIVE based on percentages that you conveniently left out (AMERICA NUMBERS ONLY) Hospitalizations FLU 1.2% COVID-19 12.5% (An absolutely astronomical number that regardless of healthcare system, cannot handle very efficiently.) DEATHS FLU .09% COVID-19 1.9% Actual deaths based on outcome Recovered vs death 37.49% It takes Yes that number will go down, however Italy is still at 44% because people don't die in 24 hours of getting covid-19, they suffer for a few weeks and then die. Many are not recovering, their death is delayed. If it was just the flu you would not be in knockdown. What about all the people who are infected but don’t go to the hospital? Or that are asymptotic? "We learn from history that we learn nothing from history." - George Bernard Shaw |
page8844 User ID: 72511948 United States 03/31/2020 07:32 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
thinking...
User ID: 78212432 United States 03/31/2020 07:32 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 The current flu season is now winding down. These are the Preliminary Burden Estimates for the 2019-2020 Flu Season from the CDC. Quoting: Doc Savage Note that the figures for these four categories are only mid-line compared to the CDC estimate ranges. U.S. Influenza-Related from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 46,000,000 MEDICAL VISITS: 22,000,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 565,000 DEATHS: 43,000 (including 100 children) [link to www.cdc.gov (secure)] Here are the U.S. COVID-19 stats as of March 31, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 175,669 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 22,000 DEATHS: 3,424 [link to www.worldometers.info (secure)] World Health Organization mid-line estimate for Influenza during 2019-2020 Flu Season: GLOBAL DEATHS: 470,000 TOTAL GLOBAL COVID-19 DEATHS AS OF 3/31/20: 37,272 Just read those numbers to my husband and he said, yeah, but coronavirus is worse. I shit you not. In his poem Human Pride, Marx admits that his aim is not to improve the world, reform or revolutionize it, but simply to ruin it and enjoy it being ruined: With disdain I will throw my gauntlet full in the face of the world, And see the collapse of this pygmy giant whose fall will not stifle my ardor. Then will I wander godlike and victorious through the ruins of the world And, giving my words an active force, I will feel equal to the Creator. “Looking for consciousness in the brain is like looking in the radio for the announcer.” – Nasseim Haramein, Director of Research for the Resonance Project |
page8844 User ID: 72511948 United States 03/31/2020 07:33 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78239778 United States 03/31/2020 07:34 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 Understanding the numbers [link to spectator.us (secure)] |
psyoptics
User ID: 76886181 United States 03/31/2020 07:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 This part is extremely relevant - Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77963234 "HOSPITALIZATIONS: 565,000 DEATHS: 43,000 (including 100 children)" Given the current state of hype relating to covid-19 Well see it's like this. Those 565000 hospitalizations were spread out over a few months so the hospitals could handle it. Those 22000 hospitalizations from covid19 have been spread out over a few months so it overloaded the system. We also need about 10 times as many ventilators as hospital cases because reasons. Makes perfect sense when you think about it! Hopefully this clears some of that up. yes 5 to be exact....the Covid is going on 2. you watch this will start to wind down now too...the flu started slowing around mid March. Almost nothing now...or many were sick with the flu and test CoVid after death....that would make the flu number follow the decades of sats....taper off right after Feb never happens though it did this year...to almost zero at months end. It should still be just coming down as every other year. Last Edited by psyoptics on 03/31/2020 07:37 PM a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants. |
page8844 User ID: 72511948 United States 03/31/2020 07:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 The current flu season is now winding down. These are the Preliminary Burden Estimates for the 2019-2020 Flu Season from the CDC. Quoting: Doc Savage Note that the figures for these four categories are only mid-line compared to the CDC estimate ranges. Influenza-Related from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 46,000,000 MEDICAL VISITS: 22,000,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 565,000 DEATHS: 43,000 (including 100 children) [link to www.cdc.gov (secure)] Here are the U.S. COVID-19 stats as of March 31, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 175,669 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 22,000 DEATHS: 3,424 [link to www.worldometers.info (secure)] I understand where you’re coming from but have a look - it’s just a matter of time. Which they are running out of, LOL |
psyoptics
User ID: 76886181 United States 03/31/2020 07:39 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 The current flu season is now winding down. These are the Preliminary Burden Estimates for the 2019-2020 Flu Season from the CDC. Quoting: Doc Savage Note that the figures for these four categories are only mid-line compared to the CDC estimate ranges. U.S. Influenza-Related from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 46,000,000 MEDICAL VISITS: 22,000,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 565,000 DEATHS: 43,000 (including 100 children) [link to www.cdc.gov (secure)] Here are the U.S. COVID-19 stats as of March 31, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 175,669 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 22,000 DEATHS: 3,424 [link to www.worldometers.info (secure)] World Health Organization mid-line estimate for Influenza during 2019-2020 Flu Season: GLOBAL DEATHS: 470,000 TOTAL GLOBAL COVID-19 DEATHS AS OF 3/31/20: 37,272 Just read those numbers to my husband and he said, yeah, but coronavirus is worse. I shit you not. I call it MIFF'ed Media Induced Fear Frenzy this will kill so many people in the end no one left will remember how it all started. Last Edited by psyoptics on 03/31/2020 07:39 PM a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78523666 Australia 03/31/2020 07:49 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 I'll use statistics from Italy and extrapolate to the USAs population and compare them to OPs flu related deaths. Quoting: Tassie Lurker Currently Italy has a population of 60 million. They have lost just under 12,500 lives so far, with deaths not in decline (has not peaked yet). If we extrapolate the death rate to the USAs current population, 327 million, just over 68,000 would have died so far... Italy's covid19 deaths have occurred in just ONE month, so lets times the USAs deaths, 68k, by 12.. around 820,000 deaths compared to the estimated 43k flu related deaths.. Imagine if Italy had not shut down, had not taken any precautions.. Covid19 smashes the flu, if you use Italy's stats. while you're extrapolating.....compare the "oldest population in the world", combined with the poor air quality, smokers and the culture of dudes kissing each other on the cheek.....now compare that to the USA! the advisor to the health minister in italy said something interesting. and he said it matter of factly without even thinking how it may sound. "The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus." not some guy in mums basement. its the ADVISOR TO THE ITALIAN HEALTH MINISTER [link to www.telegraph.co.uk (secure)] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78486485 Singapore 03/31/2020 07:49 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
BeSkeptical
User ID: 46420627 United States 03/31/2020 07:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 I'll use statistics from Italy and extrapolate to the USAs population and compare them to OPs flu related deaths. Quoting: Tassie Lurker Why Italy? Why not Poland? Or Japan? Poland, a nation of 38 million people, has suffered only 33 COVID-19 deaths. [link to www.worldometers.info (secure)] In Japan, population 127 million, only 56 people have died of COVID-19. [link to www.worldometers.info (secure)] It is utterly idiotic to assume that the USA must inevitably go the way of Italy. It is much more sensible to ask, How can we imitate Poland and Japan so that we don't end up like Italy? Here are a few hints: - Poland approved hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19 on March 12. - Poland closed its borders on March 13. - On March 16, Poland shut down domestic air travel as well. Last Edited by BeSkeptical on 03/31/2020 07:54 PM |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 76800079 United States 03/31/2020 07:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 The current flu season is now winding down. These are the Preliminary Burden Estimates for the 2019-2020 Flu Season from the CDC. Quoting: Doc Savage Note that the figures for these four categories are only mid-line compared to the CDC estimate ranges. U.S. Influenza-Related from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 46,000,000 MEDICAL VISITS: 22,000,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 565,000 DEATHS: 43,000 (including 100 children) [link to www.cdc.gov (secure)] Here are the U.S. COVID-19 stats as of March 31, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 175,669 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 22,000 DEATHS: 3,424 [link to www.worldometers.info (secure)] World Health Organization mid-line estimate for Influenza during 2019-2020 Flu Season: GLOBAL DEATHS: 470,000 TOTAL GLOBAL COVID-19 DEATHS AS OF 3/31/20: 37,272 I'm exhausted with this tiresome logic. "it's just the flu!" REAL PERSPECTIVE based on percentages that you conveniently left out (AMERICA NUMBERS ONLY) Hospitalizations FLU 1.2% COVID-19 12.5% (An absolutely astronomical number that regardless of healthcare system, cannot handle very efficiently.) DEATHS FLU .09% COVID-19 1.9% Actual deaths based on outcome Recovered vs death 37.49% It takes Yes that number will go down, however Italy is still at 44% because people don't die in 24 hours of getting covid-19, they suffer for a few weeks and then die. Many are not recovering, their death is delayed. If it was just the flu you would not be in knockdown. What about all the people who are infected but don’t go to the hospital? Or that are asymptotic? that is a very good point. I heard somewhere that for every 1 infected there are potentially 10 others also infected. If you took the current number of infected and multiply that by 10 (only using America's numbers)you would have 1,873,210‬ cases in America. Given the current deaths of 3,850 (which has already gone up in my last post) you would have a death rate of .2% However, the concern is how fast the virus spreads and infects as well as the hospitalizations. We know that that of those infected 13% will be hospitalized. (different percentages per age group but throughout all age groups even the young are being hospitalized) If you then take 13% of that 1,873,210 you get a number like this 243,517. Maybe on paper this doesn't look so bad but keep in mind that the flu season is 6 months. Because of the US was slow to respond places like NYC are spreading quickly. If the 243,517 hospitalizations can not be brought down over a longer period (flattening the curve) our health care system collapses. The flu as a hospitalization rate of only 1.2% over a 6 month period |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 77304979 United States 03/31/2020 07:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 This is with a flu shot circulating. It’s up for discussion if the shot work. But let’s say they do help. And, the flu patients didn’t go away. It could be like a double flu season. That can strain hospitals. If this was lab made, there is ZERO herd immunity to this. Most Dr don’t get the flu. Either from immunity or shots, who knows. But this effecting then pretty badly. That had to be taken into consideration too. Point being, this is not replacing the flu but in addition to it. Many small hospitals get overloaded just from that. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 77901425 United States 03/31/2020 08:16 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 The current flu season is now winding down. These are the Preliminary Burden Estimates for the 2019-2020 Flu Season from the CDC. Quoting: Doc Savage Note that the figures for these four categories are only mid-line compared to the CDC estimate ranges. U.S. Influenza-Related from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 46,000,000 MEDICAL VISITS: 22,000,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 565,000 DEATHS: 43,000 (including 100 children) [link to www.cdc.gov (secure)] Here are the U.S. COVID-19 stats as of March 31, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 175,669 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 22,000 DEATHS: 3,424 [link to www.worldometers.info (secure)] World Health Organization mid-line estimate for Influenza during 2019-2020 Flu Season: GLOBAL DEATHS: 470,000 TOTAL GLOBAL COVID-19 DEATHS AS OF 3/31/20: 37,272 I'm exhausted with this tiresome logic. "it's just the flu!" REAL PERSPECTIVE based on percentages that you conveniently left out (AMERICA NUMBERS ONLY) Hospitalizations FLU 1.2% COVID-19 12.5% (An absolutely astronomical number that regardless of healthcare system, cannot handle very efficiently.) DEATHS FLU .09% COVID-19 1.9% Actual deaths based on outcome Recovered vs death 37.49% It takes Yes that number will go down, however Italy is still at 44% because people don't die in 24 hours of getting covid-19, they suffer for a few weeks and then die. Many are not recovering, their death is delayed. If it was just the flu you would not be in knockdown. You can't put a percentage on hospitalizations or death because you don't know how many people have had it without ever being tested. I know a LOT of people who were sick in February/March, and never got tested for anything. Changing the denominator greatly changes the percentages. I'm betting death rate is well below one percent. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78689036 United States 03/31/2020 08:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 The current flu season is now winding down. These are the Preliminary Burden Estimates for the 2019-2020 Flu Season from the CDC. Quoting: Doc Savage Note that the figures for these four categories are only mid-line compared to the CDC estimate ranges. U.S. Influenza-Related from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 46,000,000 MEDICAL VISITS: 22,000,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 565,000 DEATHS: 43,000 (including 100 children) [link to www.cdc.gov (secure)] Here are the U.S. COVID-19 stats as of March 31, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 175,669 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 22,000 DEATHS: 3,424 [link to www.worldometers.info (secure)] World Health Organization mid-line estimate for Influenza during 2019-2020 Flu Season: GLOBAL DEATHS: 470,000 TOTAL GLOBAL COVID-19 DEATHS AS OF 3/31/20: 37,272 I'm exhausted with this tiresome logic. "it's just the flu!" REAL PERSPECTIVE based on percentages that you conveniently left out (AMERICA NUMBERS ONLY) Hospitalizations FLU 1.2% COVID-19 12.5% (An absolutely astronomical number that regardless of healthcare system, cannot handle very efficiently.) DEATHS FLU .09% COVID-19 1.9% Actual deaths based on outcome Recovered vs death 37.49% It takes Yes that number will go down, however Italy is still at 44% because people don't die in 24 hours of getting covid-19, they suffer for a few weeks and then die. Many are not recovering, their death is delayed. If it was just the flu you would not be in knockdown. What about all the people who are infected but don’t go to the hospital? Or that are asymptotic? that is a very good point. I heard somewhere that for every 1 infected there are potentially 10 others also infected. If you took the current number of infected and multiply that by 10 (only using America's numbers)you would have 1,873,210‬ cases in America. Given the current deaths of 3,850 (which has already gone up in my last post) you would have a death rate of .2% ]However, the concern is how fast the virus spreads and infects as well as the hospitalizations. We know that that of those infected 13% will be hospitalized.(different percentages per age group but throughout all age groups even the young are being hospitalized) If you then take 13% of that 1,873,210 you get a number like this 243,517. Maybe on paper this doesn't look so bad but keep in mind that the flu season is 6 months. Because of the US was slow to respond places like NYC are spreading quickly. If the 243,517 hospitalizations can not be brought down over a longer period (flattening the curve) our health care system collapses. The flu as a hospitalization rate of only 1.2% over a 6 month period If we are unsure of how many people are infected, explain to me how we KNOW 13% will be hospitalized? You're completely full of shit and spreading disinformation purposefully. Fucking shill. |
page8844 User ID: 72511948 United States 03/31/2020 08:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 The current flu season is now winding down. These are the Preliminary Burden Estimates for the 2019-2020 Flu Season from the CDC. Quoting: Doc Savage Note that the figures for these four categories are only mid-line compared to the CDC estimate ranges. U.S. Influenza-Related from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 46,000,000 MEDICAL VISITS: 22,000,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 565,000 DEATHS: 43,000 (including 100 children) Interesting Doc, Let's take the 200,000 estimated covid deaths total and work that backwards through those ratios: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 80 million MEDICAL VISITS: 40 million HOSPITALIZATIONS: 2.2 million DEATHS: 200,000 That would be crammed into a month and a half instead of the six months, wow. That lines up with Cuomo raising the amount of ICUs needed from 110,000 to 140,000 for New York alone. Some of those ICUs will be used 2 or 3 times within that time period of course. The final stats will depend if the US starts playing with the official death count moving the goalposts as to what determines covid death like China did and Italy's equally BS numbers. By the best estimates, COVID-19 is going to hit its peak in the U.S. sometime during the next few weeks. With that, and with effective treatments now being distributed, there's no way today's U.S. death total of 3,424 is going to balloon to anywhere near 200,000. it has been more then doubling each week Mar 24th: 780 Mar 31st: 3,849 If only doubling each week April 7th: 7698 April 14th: 15,396 (at this point NYC health care system would be in collapse . Yes I understand not all deaths in the US are in NYC. Also the more than likely point of no return in NYC) April 21st: 30,792 April 28th: 61,584 May 5th: 123,168 May 12th: 246,336 The only way they are getting to that number, is if they start adding homicides,suicides and accidental deaths. Which they probably already are doing. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78647766 New Zealand 03/31/2020 08:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 That death number is fucking huge Quoting: Jake something tells me that the CDC lied about H1N1 Its still here, still spreading and highly active and extremely lethal they always lie about flu numbers, cos they have interests in a product, a special product, that will shave you from your own inevitable demise, and relax, its just a little pin prick, there'll be no more arrhhh..but you may feel a little sick |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78673468 Denmark 03/31/2020 08:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 The current flu season is now winding down. These are the Preliminary Burden Estimates for the 2019-2020 Flu Season from the CDC. Quoting: Doc Savage Note that the figures for these four categories are only mid-line compared to the CDC estimate ranges. U.S. Influenza-Related from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 46,000,000 MEDICAL VISITS: 22,000,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 565,000 DEATHS: 43,000 (including 100 children) [link to www.cdc.gov (secure)] Here are the U.S. COVID-19 stats as of March 31, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 175,669 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 22,000 DEATHS: 3,424 [link to www.worldometers.info (secure)] World Health Organization mid-line estimate for Influenza during 2019-2020 Flu Season: GLOBAL DEATHS: 470,000 TOTAL GLOBAL COVID-19 DEATHS AS OF 3/31/20: 37,272 link for this World Health Organization mid-line estimate for Influenza during 2019-2020 Flu Season ?? |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78647766 New Zealand 03/31/2020 08:45 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 77392573 United States 03/31/2020 08:48 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 76800079 United States 03/31/2020 08:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 The current flu season is now winding down. These are the Preliminary Burden Estimates for the 2019-2020 Flu Season from the CDC. Quoting: Doc Savage Note that the figures for these four categories are only mid-line compared to the CDC estimate ranges. U.S. Influenza-Related from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 46,000,000 MEDICAL VISITS: 22,000,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 565,000 DEATHS: 43,000 (including 100 children) [link to www.cdc.gov (secure)] Here are the U.S. COVID-19 stats as of March 31, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 175,669 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 22,000 DEATHS: 3,424 [link to www.worldometers.info (secure)] World Health Organization mid-line estimate for Influenza during 2019-2020 Flu Season: GLOBAL DEATHS: 470,000 TOTAL GLOBAL COVID-19 DEATHS AS OF 3/31/20: 37,272 I'm exhausted with this tiresome logic. "it's just the flu!" REAL PERSPECTIVE based on percentages that you conveniently left out (AMERICA NUMBERS ONLY) Hospitalizations FLU 1.2% COVID-19 12.5% (An absolutely astronomical number that regardless of healthcare system, cannot handle very efficiently.) DEATHS FLU .09% COVID-19 1.9% Actual deaths based on outcome Recovered vs death 37.49% It takes Yes that number will go down, however Italy is still at 44% because people don't die in 24 hours of getting covid-19, they suffer for a few weeks and then die. Many are not recovering, their death is delayed. If it was just the flu you would not be in knockdown. You can't put a percentage on hospitalizations or death because you don't know how many people have had it without ever being tested. I know a LOT of people who were sick in February/March, and never got tested for anything. Changing the denominator greatly changes the percentages. I'm betting death rate is well below one percent. That is a good point. See my previous response to a similar point. Admittedly we can only guess on a lot of these numbers because the lack of known cases. If we multiplied the current cases by 10 in the US you would have 1,873,210. 3,860 deaths would be about .2% death rate 80% approximately are asymptomatic/mild symptoms based on current known numbers. Currently 3,988 are in serious or critical. Or about .2% of theoretical unknown infected. So you have .2% death rate and .2% hospitalization rate. That would be a manageable number on the healthcare systems but it does not line up with reality in NY. The flu which has a 1.9% rate of hospitalization over a 6 month period does not overwhelm the health care system in NYC. In a month NYC is on the brink and people are dying quickly. So while you make a good point about the unknown numbers. The reason this is a pandemic is because of 2 very basic reasons. 1. Flu has a vaccine and milder symptoms. Covid-19 has no proven cure or vaccine 2. Speed of infection. Flu on average as an infection rate of 1 person infects 1.3 COVID-19 has an infection rate of 1 person infects 2 to 3. Couple these 2 and you have a very serious pandemic. Trust me the WHO and CDC know the math. Everyone here just takes numbers off of a website and magically becomes an expert. |
DA AYDS User ID: 73025873 United States 03/31/2020 09:00 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 The current flu season is now winding down. These are the Preliminary Burden Estimates for the 2019-2020 Flu Season from the CDC. Quoting: Doc Savage Note that the figures for these four categories are only mid-line compared to the CDC estimate ranges. U.S. Influenza-Related from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 46,000,000 MEDICAL VISITS: 22,000,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 565,000 DEATHS: 43,000 (including 100 children) [link to www.cdc.gov (secure)] Here are the U.S. COVID-19 stats as of March 31, 2020: TOTAL ILLNESSES: 175,669 HOSPITALIZATIONS: 22,000 DEATHS: 3,424 [link to www.worldometers.info (secure)] World Health Organization mid-line estimate for Influenza during 2019-2020 Flu Season: GLOBAL DEATHS: 470,000 TOTAL GLOBAL COVID-19 DEATHS AS OF 3/31/20: 37,272 THERE are no room for facts in this PLANdemic, now! SHAME ON U! 5-STAR |
Mr_Smith
User ID: 76946058 United States 03/31/2020 09:01 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19 I'll use statistics from Italy and extrapolate to the USAs population and compare them to OPs flu related deaths. Quoting: Tassie Lurker Currently Italy has a population of 60 million. They have lost just under 12,500 lives so far, with deaths not in decline (has not peaked yet). If we extrapolate the death rate to the USAs current population, 327 million, just over 68,000 would have died so far... Italy's covid19 deaths have occurred in just ONE month, so lets times the USAs deaths, 68k, by 12.. around 820,000 deaths compared to the estimated 43k flu related deaths.. Imagine if Italy had not shut down, had not taken any precautions.. Covid19 smashes the flu, if you use Italy's stats. Yup, and lets not forget that at no point during the flu season we were in lock down and had this level of social distancing in place. For all the arm chair statisticians compare the flu to coronovirus, you must find a point in history with equivalent social distancing or normalize the data for coronivirus to it's behavior without social distancing. The last thing all you arm chair statisticians must take into account is the timeline. So if corona season started in March and lets say lasts for four months and we are only at the 1 month mark, we need to compare the flu season over the same time period in it's life cycle. |