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SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19

 
zzbudzz

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03/31/2020 09:03 PM
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
with only 19 deaths in India, 23 deaths in Mexico and 3500 deaths in America


clearly this is the biggest hoax ever
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 69701584


It's because their healthcare is so much better than ours ...lmao!
Banned often
Anonymous Coward
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03/31/2020 09:04 PM
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
...


I'm exhausted with this tiresome logic. "it's just the flu!"

REAL PERSPECTIVE based on percentages that you conveniently left out (AMERICA NUMBERS ONLY)

Hospitalizations
FLU 1.2%
COVID-19 12.5%
(An absolutely astronomical number that regardless of healthcare system, cannot handle very efficiently.)

DEATHS
FLU .09%
COVID-19 1.9%

Actual deaths based on outcome Recovered vs death
37.49% It takes Yes that number will go down, however Italy is still at 44% because people don't die in 24 hours of getting covid-19, they suffer for a few weeks and then die. Many are not recovering, their death is delayed.

If it was just the flu you would not be in knockdown.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76800079


What about all the people who are infected but don’t go to the hospital? Or that are asymptotic?
 Quoting: Hitokiri


that is a very good point. I heard somewhere that for every 1 infected there are potentially 10 others also infected. If you took the current number of infected and multiply that by 10 (only using America's numbers)you would have 1,873,210‬ cases in America. Given the current deaths of 3,850 (which has already gone up in my last post) you would have a death rate of .2%

]However, the concern is how fast the virus spreads and infects as well as the hospitalizations. We know that that of those infected 13% will be hospitalized.(different percentages per age group but throughout all age groups even the young are being hospitalized)

If you then take 13% of that 1,873,210 you get a number like this 243,517. Maybe on paper this doesn't look so bad but keep in mind that the flu season is 6 months. Because of the US was slow to respond places like NYC are spreading quickly. If the 243,517 hospitalizations can not be brought down over a longer period (flattening the curve) our health care system collapses.

The flu as a hospitalization rate of only 1.2% over a 6 month period
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76800079


If we are unsure of how many people are infected, explain to me how we KNOW 13% will be hospitalized? You're completely full of shit and spreading disinformation purposefully. Fucking shill.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78689036


I find your response to be childish. The point if you like is that we can only go off of known data. If we use hypothetical numbers we have no basis or handle on this pandemic.We are only guessing. Just as models are only as good as the data inputted. So you can either A. use current known data sets or B. Use hypothetical data.

Or you could just as easily look at the available data and NYC hospitals being overwhelmed if you like. But something tells me that no facts or critical thinking will actually convince people.

We know that this virus is highly infectious and is a severe respiratory illness. Based on that alone it's common sense. Flu symptoms vs COVID-19 symptoms are much different. Not to mention that there is no vaccine or known cure. To many people here trying to stop the GLP effect. I guess or just naive.
Mr_Smith

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03/31/2020 09:08 PM
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
Is there a way to just the see the numbers for a specific city that is hard hit by both, over a specific time frame?

I'm on the fence with this but these stats don't strike me as terribly useful atm because the flu obviously had a huge head start and is already spread globally and Covid is still spreading.

It's basically like comparing covid now to Covid in December. Obviously Covid now is worse.

Flu being a worse overall disease atm is true numbers wise but misleading, it assumes both diseases have peaked and run their course.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76626269


Smart, now you are thinking. Also factor in that during any flu season, we do not do the level of social distancing in place right now.

All this nonesense that the flu is worse is uninformed people comparing apples to oranges.

If you look at the epidemiology of the flu vs Covid, Covid is a monster. Those factors should be well understood by all now.
Ro of the flu is 1.2 while covid is 3 to 6
Case fatality rate of flu is <.1% Currently covid is 4%

The math of the epidemiology PREDICTS overwhelmed health care systems. OBSERVATIONS in China, Italy, SPain and now NEW YORK prove it's true.

Get off the fence, this is a no joke pandemic and anyone trying to convince you otherwise for any reason is nuts.

Even if politicians and others attempt to manipulate things because of it, doesn't make the medical crisis any less valid.
Anonymous Coward
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03/31/2020 09:11 PM
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
...


Interesting Doc,

Let's take the 200,000 estimated covid deaths total and work that backwards through those ratios:

TOTAL ILLNESSES: 80 million
MEDICAL VISITS: 40 million
HOSPITALIZATIONS: 2.2 million
DEATHS: 200,000

That would be crammed into a month and a half instead of the six months, wow.

That lines up with Cuomo raising the amount of ICUs needed from 110,000 to 140,000 for New York alone.

Some of those ICUs will be used 2 or 3 times within that time period of course.

The final stats will depend if the US starts playing with the official death count moving the goalposts as to what determines covid death like China did and Italy's equally BS numbers.
 Quoting: Jungleboogie


By the best estimates, COVID-19 is going to hit its peak in the U.S. sometime during the next few weeks. With that, and with effective treatments now being distributed, there's no way today's U.S. death total of 3,424 is going to balloon to anywhere near 200,000.
 Quoting: Doc Savage


it has been more then doubling each week
Mar 24th: 780
Mar 31st: 3,849

If only doubling each week
April 7th: 7698
April 14th: 15,396 (at this point NYC health care system would be in collapse . Yes I understand not all deaths in the US are in NYC. Also the more than likely point of no return in NYC)
April 21st: 30,792
April 28th: 61,584
May 5th: 123,168
May 12th: 246,336
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76800079

The only way they are getting to that number, is if they start adding homicides,suicides and accidental deaths. Which they probably already are doing.
 Quoting: page8844 72511948


I have heard that and again it doesn't line up with the very real situation of NYC hospitals reaching a breaking point. I have heard that post posthumous test are being done on other patients and are being counted. It is possible but that means that even at the very least you are dealing with a moderate, fast spreading disease that the health care system cannot handle on top of normal care that is provided.

Even with all of that this pandemic has shown that the health care systems around the world are living on the edge.
beeches

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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
saw similar on Fluview

[link to www.cdc.gov (secure)]


Key Points
•Nationally, the percent of laboratory specimens testing positive for influenza at clinical laboratories continued to decrease while ILI activity continued to increase. More people are seeking care for respiratory illness due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

•Nationally, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses are the most commonly reported influenza viruses this season. Previously, influenza B/Victoria viruses predominated nationally.

•Laboratory confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization rates for the U.S. population overall are higher than most recent seasons and rates for children 0-4 years and adults 18-49 years are the highest CDC has on record for these age groups, surpassing rates reported during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Hospitalization rates for school-aged children (5-17 years) are higher than any recent regular season but remain lower than rates experienced by this age group during the pandemic.

•Pneumonia and influenza mortality levels have been low, but 155 influenza-associated deaths in children have been reported so far this season. This number is higher than recorded at the same time in every season since reporting began in 2004-05, except for the 2009 pandemic.

•CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 39 million flu illnesses, 400,000 hospitalizations and 24,000 deaths from flu.

•Antiviral medications are an important adjunct to flu vaccine in the control of influenza. Almost all (>99%) of the influenza viruses tested this season are susceptible to the four FDA-approved
Liberalism is totalitarianism with a human face – Thomas Sowell
Mr_Smith

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03/31/2020 09:14 PM
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
with only 19 deaths in India, 23 deaths in Mexico and 3500 deaths in America


clearly this is the biggest hoax ever
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 69701584


It's because their healthcare is so much better than ours ...lmao!
 Quoting: zzbudzz


1. There is strong evidence there are multiple strains now. A recent article published estimates 8. Some are more or less lethal.

2. The death rate lags the infections by 3 to 4 weeks. India and Mexico are just getting started

3. Countries lie, we know China cooked the books and Iran just stopped reporting, the more honest countries seem to have a higher reported death rates.

Time will tell, we are only now just getting stared with this mess.
Anonymous Coward
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03/31/2020 09:21 PM
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
with only 19 deaths in India, 23 deaths in Mexico and 3500 deaths in America


clearly this is the biggest hoax ever
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 69701584


It's because their healthcare is so much better than ours ...lmao!
 Quoting: zzbudzz


1. There is strong evidence there are multiple strains now. A recent article published estimates 8. Some are more or less lethal.

2. The death rate lags the infections by 3 to 4 weeks. India and Mexico are just getting started

3. Countries lie, we know China cooked the books and Iran just stopped reporting, the more honest countries seem to have a higher reported death rates.

Time will tell, we are only now just getting stared with this mess.
 Quoting: Mr_Smith


our stats in nz will give a good indication of the voracity of this virus, currently 800+ cases , 12 hospitalized, 1 death, with 20 billion freshly printed notes to throw around
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
saw similar on Fluview

[link to www.cdc.gov (secure)]


Key Points
•Nationally, the percent of laboratory specimens testing positive for influenza at clinical laboratories continued to decrease while ILI activity continued to increase. More people are seeking care for respiratory illness due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

•Nationally, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses are the most commonly reported influenza viruses this season. Previously, influenza B/Victoria viruses predominated nationally.

•Laboratory confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization rates for the U.S. population overall are higher than most recent seasons and rates for children 0-4 years and adults 18-49 years are the highest CDC has on record for these age groups, surpassing rates reported during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Hospitalization rates for school-aged children (5-17 years) are higher than any recent regular season but remain lower than rates experienced by this age group during the pandemic.

•Pneumonia and influenza mortality levels have been low, but 155 influenza-associated deaths in children have been reported so far this season. This number is higher than recorded at the same time in every season since reporting began in 2004-05, except for the 2009 pandemic.

•CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 39 million flu illnesses, 400,000 hospitalizations and 24,000 deaths from flu.

•Antiviral medications are an important adjunct to flu vaccine in the control of influenza. Almost all (>99%) of the influenza viruses tested this season are susceptible to the four FDA-approved
 Quoting: beeches


dis1
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CurcaMAGA

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03/31/2020 09:23 PM
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
The current flu season is now winding down. These are the Preliminary Burden Estimates for the 2019-2020 Flu Season from the CDC.

Note that the figures for these four categories are only mid-line compared to the CDC estimate ranges.

U.S. Influenza-Related from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020:

TOTAL ILLNESSES: 46,000,000
MEDICAL VISITS: 22,000,000
HOSPITALIZATIONS: 565,000
DEATHS: 43,000 (including 100 children)

[link to www.cdc.gov (secure)]


Here are the U.S. COVID-19 stats as of March 31, 2020:

TOTAL ILLNESSES: 175,669
HOSPITALIZATIONS: 22,000
DEATHS: 3,424

[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]


World Health Organization mid-line estimate for Influenza during 2019-2020 Flu Season:

GLOBAL DEATHS: 470,000

TOTAL GLOBAL COVID-19 DEATHS AS OF 3/31/20: 37,272
 Quoting: Doc Savage


Think about these numbers now

COVID estimates (for the same total # of cases as the flu):

TOTAL ILLNESSES: 46,000,000
HOSPITALIZATIONS: 5,700,000 (vs 22,000 for flu)
DEATHS: 897,000 (vs 43,000 for flu)
everLearner

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03/31/2020 10:02 PM
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
Get back to us on May 1st.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
So divide 46,000,000 by 175,669 and we get 261.85.

So using these numbers there have been 261.85 more cases of the flu which is to be expected considering how long the flu has been spreading and exponential growth.

But we do know novel coronavirus has a far higher R0 meaning it will surpass flu infections if we do nothing.

To show how much more deadly this is we can do a little math.

If we multiply 22,000 by 261.85 we get 5,760,700 hospitalizations.
If we multiply 3,424 by 261.85 we get 896,574 deaths.

So this is just using common sense and showing why it's pretty retarded to say hey look how much worse flu is when it's really not even in the same ballpark.

They also expect novel coronavirus to infect 70% of the populations not 14% which is the percentage the flu has infected.
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03/31/2020 10:17 PM
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
...


What about all the people who are infected but don’t go to the hospital? Or that are asymptotic?
 Quoting: Hitokiri


that is a very good point. I heard somewhere that for every 1 infected there are potentially 10 others also infected. If you took the current number of infected and multiply that by 10 (only using America's numbers)you would have 1,873,210&#8236; cases in America. Given the current deaths of 3,850 (which has already gone up in my last post) you would have a death rate of .2%

]However, the concern is how fast the virus spreads and infects as well as the hospitalizations. We know that that of those infected 13% will be hospitalized.(different percentages per age group but throughout all age groups even the young are being hospitalized)

If you then take 13% of that 1,873,210 you get a number like this 243,517. Maybe on paper this doesn't look so bad but keep in mind that the flu season is 6 months. Because of the US was slow to respond places like NYC are spreading quickly. If the 243,517 hospitalizations can not be brought down over a longer period (flattening the curve) our health care system collapses.

The flu as a hospitalization rate of only 1.2% over a 6 month period
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76800079


If we are unsure of how many people are infected, explain to me how we KNOW 13% will be hospitalized? You're completely full of shit and spreading disinformation purposefully. Fucking shill.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78689036


I find your response to be childish. The point if you like is that we can only go off of known data. If we use hypothetical numbers we have no basis or handle on this pandemic.We are only guessing. Just as models are only as good as the data inputted. So you can either A. use current known data sets or B. Use hypothetical data.

Or you could just as easily look at the available data and NYC hospitals being overwhelmed if you like. But something tells me that no facts or critical thinking will actually convince people.

We know that this virus is highly infectious and is a severe respiratory illness. Based on that alone it's common sense. Flu symptoms vs COVID-19 symptoms are much different. Not to mention that there is no vaccine or known cure. To many people here trying to stop the GLP effect. I guess or just naive.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76800079

The point being you have very little known data and what you do have is speculation because you have no idea how many people have been exposed. You fail to address that the CDC it's self found a respiratory illness (not flu) that was fairly wide spread as far back as December 2019. If that is indeed the case this virus has spread much farther than the numbers would indicate from a mid January outbreak. You throw around 13% like that's anything other than pie in the sky. 13% of what? Cases that have recently been tested for? That number drops completely out of sight if even 5-10% of the country has been exposed. I apologize for calling you a name. I'm tired of seeing numbers thrown around here like facts when they're obviously anything but. The fact of the matter is we're not getting the whole story. That I truly believe is by design.
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
Thread: Manufactured Pandemic: Testing People for Any Strain of a Coronavirus.
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
...


that is a very good point. I heard somewhere that for every 1 infected there are potentially 10 others also infected. If you took the current number of infected and multiply that by 10 (only using America's numbers)you would have 1,873,210&#8236; cases in America. Given the current deaths of 3,850 (which has already gone up in my last post) you would have a death rate of .2%

]However, the concern is how fast the virus spreads and infects as well as the hospitalizations. We know that that of those infected 13% will be hospitalized.(different percentages per age group but throughout all age groups even the young are being hospitalized)

If you then take 13% of that 1,873,210 you get a number like this 243,517. Maybe on paper this doesn't look so bad but keep in mind that the flu season is 6 months. Because of the US was slow to respond places like NYC are spreading quickly. If the 243,517 hospitalizations can not be brought down over a longer period (flattening the curve) our health care system collapses.

The flu as a hospitalization rate of only 1.2% over a 6 month period
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76800079


If we are unsure of how many people are infected, explain to me how we KNOW 13% will be hospitalized? You're completely full of shit and spreading disinformation purposefully. Fucking shill.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78689036


I find your response to be childish. The point if you like is that we can only go off of known data. If we use hypothetical numbers we have no basis or handle on this pandemic.We are only guessing. Just as models are only as good as the data inputted. So you can either A. use current known data sets or B. Use hypothetical data.

Or you could just as easily look at the available data and NYC hospitals being overwhelmed if you like. But something tells me that no facts or critical thinking will actually convince people.

We know that this virus is highly infectious and is a severe respiratory illness. Based on that alone it's common sense. Flu symptoms vs COVID-19 symptoms are much different. Not to mention that there is no vaccine or known cure. To many people here trying to stop the GLP effect. I guess or just naive.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76800079

The point being you have very little known data and what you do have is speculation because you have no idea how many people have been exposed. You fail to address that the CDC it's self found a respiratory illness (not flu) that was fairly wide spread as far back as December 2019. If that is indeed the case this virus has spread much farther than the numbers would indicate from a mid January outbreak. You throw around 13% like that's anything other than pie in the sky. 13% of what? Cases that have recently been tested for? That number drops completely out of sight if even 5-10% of the country has been exposed. I apologize for calling you a name. I'm tired of seeing numbers thrown around here like facts when they're obviously anything but. The fact of the matter is we're not getting the whole story. That I truly believe is by design.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78689036


You know how you know it's not as widespread yet as some of you believe it is.

Too many tests coming back negative.

I heard some retarded UK scientists saying it's already infected half but that's not possible for 1 simple reason.

Exponential growth would mean that most of them would have caught it over the last week or so.

That would mean random testing would show 50% coming back positive.


And that's not the case.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
I've been banned since March 8 from the site because I told people about the flu deaths. Trinity didn't want you guys to see it. You have to wonder about that idiot... maybe it's not 1 guy but a team?
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
Guess you all missed that part about exponential growth. What is 175,000 Doubled every 7 days for 3 more months..
175000
350000
700000
1400000
2800000
5600000
11200000
22400000
44800000
89600000
179200000
358400000. Week 12 the whole population.

It probably wont get to that number but it grows way faster than the flu does in 5 months.
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
There you go again bringing reality into the media/democrat/rino panic frenzy. You’re gonna mess up a perfectly good economic collapse.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6901539



The economic collapse is here and was going to be here, regardless of the virus.

The VIRUS is being used as cover for the crimes of the global cabalist elites.

[link to wallstreetonparade.com (secure)]

"From December 2007 to November 10, 2011, the Federal Reserve, secretly and without the awareness of Congress, funneled $19.6 trillion in cumulative loans to bail out the trading houses on Wall Street. Just 14 global financial institutions received 83.9 percent of those loans or $16.41 trillion. (See chart above.) A number of those banks were insolvent at the time and did not, under the law, qualify for these Fed loans."
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
Thanks! More perspective is always a good thing. One would think that our media would be doing the same thing, unless of course....they have an agenda?

I truly suspect that this issue of shutdown is related to something bigger than the virus, because these people must know that they’re toast otherwise if/when we get to the other side of this.
 Quoting: SaveUSa


The shutdown for these numbers are laughable. That is why I too think there is something bigger looming and it isn’t a virus...
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
That death number is fucking huge

something tells me that the CDC lied about H1N1

Its still here, still spreading and highly active and extremely lethal
 Quoting: Jake


Yeah and no one is talking about H1N1 or these other flu bugs that have emerged right along with COVID.

What happened with those new strains of bird flu being reported weeks ago?

I only heard 1 person died from that..nothing else was said.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
The current flu season is now winding down. These are the Preliminary Burden Estimates for the 2019-2020 Flu Season from the CDC.

Note that the figures for these four categories are only mid-line compared to the CDC estimate ranges.

U.S. Influenza-Related from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020:

TOTAL ILLNESSES: 46,000,000
MEDICAL VISITS: 22,000,000
HOSPITALIZATIONS: 565,000
DEATHS: 43,000 (including 100 children)

[link to www.cdc.gov (secure)]


Here are the U.S. COVID-19 stats as of March 31, 2020:

TOTAL ILLNESSES: 175,669
HOSPITALIZATIONS: 22,000
DEATHS: 3,424

[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]


World Health Organization mid-line estimate for Influenza during 2019-2020 Flu Season:

GLOBAL DEATHS: 470,000

TOTAL GLOBAL COVID-19 DEATHS AS OF 3/31/20: 37,272
 Quoting: Doc Savage


My parents had the news on and announced 15 people dead in our county... I couldn’t help but think... how many others died that didn’t get recognition?

Wake me up when we break 60,000 as far as I’m concerned, these numbers for influenza are low.
Mr_Smith

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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
The current flu season is now winding down. These are the Preliminary Burden Estimates for the 2019-2020 Flu Season from the CDC.

Note that the figures for these four categories are only mid-line compared to the CDC estimate ranges.

U.S. Influenza-Related from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020:

TOTAL ILLNESSES: 46,000,000
MEDICAL VISITS: 22,000,000
HOSPITALIZATIONS: 565,000
DEATHS: 43,000 (including 100 children)

[link to www.cdc.gov (secure)]


Here are the U.S. COVID-19 stats as of March 31, 2020:

TOTAL ILLNESSES: 175,669
HOSPITALIZATIONS: 22,000
DEATHS: 3,424

[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]


World Health Organization mid-line estimate for Influenza during 2019-2020 Flu Season:

GLOBAL DEATHS: 470,000

TOTAL GLOBAL COVID-19 DEATHS AS OF 3/31/20: 37,272
 Quoting: Doc Savage


I'm exhausted with this tiresome logic. "it's just the flu!"

REAL PERSPECTIVE based on percentages that you conveniently left out (AMERICA NUMBERS ONLY)

Hospitalizations
FLU 1.2%
COVID-19 12.5%
(An absolutely astronomical number that regardless of healthcare system, cannot handle very efficiently.)

DEATHS
FLU .09%
COVID-19 1.9%

Actual deaths based on outcome Recovered vs death
37.49% It takes Yes that number will go down, however Italy is still at 44% because people don't die in 24 hours of getting covid-19, they suffer for a few weeks and then die. Many are not recovering, their death is delayed.

If it was just the flu you would not be in knockdown.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76800079


What about all the people who are infected but don’t go to the hospital? Or that are asymptotic?
 Quoting: Hitokiri


what does it matter? Those with a serious enough set of symptoms to get tested are dying at a rate of 4 to 11%. Those tested infected are still growing exponentially, we will hit 1 million tomorrow, 2 million in a week, 4 million in 2 weeks, 8 million in 3 weeks. The death rate as a percentage of those numbers is still staggering.

The asymptomatic cases are mostly responsible for the spread and the key to flattening the curve is finding those folks and isolating them util they stop shedding the virus.

No matter what kind of mental masterbation you perform, this is still the real deal. But I think with all the isolation and this hydroxychloroquine therapy is promising, we may dodge a big part of the bullet on this one. It should be a wake up call on many levels...
Mr_Smith

User ID: 76946058
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04/01/2020 12:20 AM
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
Again, comparing 6 months of flu to 1 month of Corona starting and spreading in the USA. Give it a month and then recompare. Also.. did you forget you’re comparing a virus (the flu) with no social distancing and shut downs vs a new virus with social distancing and shut downs. Think about it.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78290459


It amazes me when I see posts from such ignorant fucktards.

Look at the information. The COV 19 stats go back to the beginning.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73992024




Exactly... Which is why I keep asking about how these numbers compare in a sample. Say, new York. Over the past week. Flu vs Covid. That sounds like a useful comparison. This entire flu season vs. Covid is not.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76626269


No, the best way to compare is using the tools and best practices the epidemiologists use. All viruses can be described using the same basic metrics, then math can be used to estimate spread, death rates and such.

Another option to compare an active pandemic with something from history is you look at the historical data across time and compare Day 90 for both and then day 120 and so on.

I've seen no one on this site present any data like this for the flu vs covid. The flu vs covid analysis here is all bullshit.
Mr_Smith

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04/01/2020 12:22 AM
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
I, like a few people with common sense on this forum have been saying this since day fuking 2 of this scam.

Apparently, a lot of people are loosing their ability to think here & are loosing their shit over this thing.

Reality completely thrown out the window.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78712988


What date did you become aware this is a scam? march 1st?
Mr_Smith

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04/01/2020 12:25 AM
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Re: SOME PERSPECTIVE: CDC Statistical Estimates for the 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season Compared With COVID-19
I'll use statistics from Italy and extrapolate to the USAs population and compare them to OPs flu related deaths.

Currently Italy has a population of 60 million. They have lost just under 12,500 lives so far, with deaths not in decline (has not peaked yet).

If we extrapolate the death rate to the USAs current population, 327 million, just over 68,000 would have died so far... Italy's covid19 deaths have occurred in just ONE month, so lets times the USAs deaths, 68k, by 12.. around 820,000 deaths compared to the estimated 43k flu related deaths..

Imagine if Italy had not shut down, had not taken any precautions.. 

Covid19 smashes the flu, if you use Italy's stats.
 Quoting: Tassie Lurker


Ok, I'll bite on. Strawman arguments piss me off.

Italy calculates their flu deaths different than the majority of the world. That's why statistically they say they lose about 300 people a year from the flu. How does that make any sense when comparing populations and flu deaths to any other Western country.

What a coincidence that a country that calculates the flu death different than the rest of the world to show very few flu deaths is facing the worst of the "pandemic" right at the time when people are comparing the numbers to the flu.

Currently the entire Western world is calculating COVID deaths strangely. Flu deaths are being wrapped up into it because COVID is quite similar to it. That's why it's called a strain of the coronavirus aka common cold/flu strains. The tests are coming back false-positive very frequently and complications of it are very similar to complications of the flu. Even then the numbers are still ridiculously low compared to the flu.

Could it be that this is a new strain of the flu which can cause a pneumonia-like complication... much like the flu?

Oh no, that's impossible because the TV tells me it's going to get really bad really soon even though the death numbers aren't there. I'll just cross reference how Italy records stats to the way the U.S. does and pretend they're the same to try to prove my point...

Next let's compare the way China records stats. Hey look, the pandemic is over!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78045492


BULLSHIT, Covid-19 statistics are based on tested positive for covid-19. My doctor friends first test for Influenza A and B (we have anti-virals for these) to rule those out and then as a last resort test for Covid. Please site me an article from anyplace that shows data that influenze A & B data is mixed into covid-19 data.

You are just making shit up.

Last Edited by Mr_Smith on 04/01/2020 12:26 AM





GLP