New Univ. of Texas Model Forecasts only 9 States Likely to See Peak in COVID-19 Deaths by End of April

A model that projects COVID-19 deaths for all 50 U.S. states using geolocation data from cellphones to determine the impact of social distancing within each state is showing it may be another several weeks until deaths peak for most states.

Researchers at The University of Texas at Austin have released a model that provides a daily estimate of fatalities from COVID-19 in the United States for the coming weeks. The model finds that the number of deaths almost certainly has not yet peaked and is not likely to peak in many states until after May 1, a finding that is in contrast to one of the most frequently cited models.

The new model has several similarities with a model developed by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), but it stands in contrast because it uses data from the United States to estimate the impact of recent social distancing measures within each state.

The new model predicts that two states, New York and Louisiana, will be past their peak by April 19 with at least 80% certainty. The model also predicts that 7 others, plus Washington, D.C., have at least an 80% chance of peaking in April: New Jersey, Michigan, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Nevada and Massachusetts.

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