COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)

409 further deaths in France. Plus more than 600 new patients entered ICUs in the past day.

https://twitter.com/_/status/1379488331948515332

UK about to suffer sharp drop in vaccine doses.

https://twitter.com/_/status/1379501293652209665

https://twitter.com/_/status/1379477707646513161

Last Edited by lightning1977 on 04/06/2021 03:06 PM

Vaccine rollout no longer a guarantee of success.

https://twitter.com/_/status/1379481595560755208

Drip

Some hospitalized and died, too.

Many of the 246 are presumably the ones who had the need to be tested - i.e. symptomatic cases. Asymptomatics are probably in the thousands at a minimum...

https://twitter.com/_/status/1379458652323639300

Last Edited by CoronaCoaster on 04/06/2021 03:54 PM

Pretty clever putting it so far out. When the 4th wave hits, Californians will not be so angry. Its one thing to allow some freedom then snatch it away. Its another if they never hit the goal date.

U.S. data....

cases, deaths, hospitalizations, test positivity

Data is incomplete due to the Easter holiday.... some states haven't been reporting in the past few days, so will have to wait until later this week to get a more accurate picture, however the trend is that things are heading in the wrong direction...

https://twitter.com/_/status/1379478596717269003

https://twitter.com/_/status/1379478603751170059

Last Edited by CoronaCoaster on 04/06/2021 03:28 PM

A look at U.S. regions...




Data from the Northeast and Midwest U.S.

https://twitter.com/_/status/1379478618238246915

And the data from South and West U.S.

https://twitter.com/_/status/1379478622524862475

Last Edited by CoronaCoaster on 04/06/2021 03:24 PM

Well, this is a nice surprise!...The US economy is growing at its fastest pace since 1984.... [link to www.cnn.com (secure)]

So all signs point to another resurgence with variants in the USA. Why are states continuing to drop all restrictions and mandates?

Am I missing something?

The first lot arrived in Greece three days ago


[link to greekreporter.com (secure)]

Good post!

Double drip - you have to read this madness.

Variants are overcoming vaccines so quickly vaccinate everyone.

OMG I cannot believe I just read that crap !!!!



Last Edited by ParamedicUK on 04/06/2021 04:21 PM

Rebellion is in the air. Restaurant Owners Clash With Police in Rome Lockdown Protest... [link to www.usnews.com (secure)]

P1 spreads across North America - won’t be pretty !!!!

No, you're not missing anything... it really is as messed up as it seems. But who expected any different...

Bonkers - god help America

To be fair, they have not reached this "mythical" herd immunity of 70% + of the population yet. Israel: 834,920 cases, an increase of 357. Deaths at 6,257 (+12). 317 serious (-6), 486 hospitalizations (-3). 57,726 tests, 0.7% positive. 7-day avg at 338 (+9).
Vaccinations: 1st dose 5,282,545. 2nd dose 4,871,397. Population is over 9 million.

Last Edited by Lago on 04/06/2021 04:45 PM

As I have said before when P1/P3 hits Israel it’s not going to be nice....

My thoughts exactly. June is a ways away and a whole lot can change and probably will before then, not in a good way either.

And then Newsom is also facing a recall, if all the signatures on the petitions (as they should) are legitimate.

Poor California, we are a big ole mess.

Speculative but interesting thoughts from a virologist on the emergence of the new variants in their different environments.

https://twitter.com/_/status/1379519600488894465

One could make speculative, but interesting arguments about what drove emergence of UK variant B.1.1.7 and Brazilian variant P.1, by that I mean exactly what selective environments caused their proliferation. The viruses are not the same!

The UK variant arose at a time when immune pressure was not particularly high, consisting mainly of a modest no of Brits who had recovered from COVID. And, as expected, its immune-escape capabilities are limited. It IS, however, more infectious and more pathogenic

By contrast, Brazilian variant P.1 arose in a highly "immune" environment, perhaps in Manaus where 70% are thought to have had antibodies from prior COVID. Unsurprisingly, P.1 has superior immune evasion skills relative to B.1.1.7

So what were the selective forces that favored B.1.1.7 in UK? Here's the crazy part: British lockdown deprived virus of most opportunities for superspreader events. The virus had to improve its skills at close-contact, family-cluster spread. And it f'ing DID

This implies no foresight on the part of the macroassembly of molecules we call a virus. It HAD to find a weakness if it were to further proliferate. So it stumbled into a mutation-space that gave it that edge

I don't have great insight into what happened to make THE most effective of the variants in immune escape, S African variant B.1.351. Like the others, it may have emerged to escape immunity. Maybe S Africa had a large population who sustained occult COVID?
We shall see maybe.
END

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

What is added by this report? Transmissibility and reinfection of P.1 were estimated using an epidemiological model-based fitting and public health data. The transmissibility is 2.5 times greater than the wild variant and reinfection probability is 6.4% on average..... [link to www.medrxiv.org (secure)]

It’s not slowing - USA need to take note BIG time....,,

Just awful. I have no words :(

Basically... the transmission rate is so insane that it's very likely there is a significant amount of re-infecting going on to account for it.

Also, the 6.4% reinfection rate is a conservative estimate. In that paper it says there is another model which puts the rate three times higher.

https://imgur.com/2oG6hLU

Last Edited by CoronaCoaster on 04/06/2021 05:33 PM

Good God. India was at 50k last week.

https://twitter.com/_/status/1379522519129014273

Last Edited by CoronaCoaster on 04/06/2021 05:41 PM