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Message Subject COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
Poster Handle Anonymous Coward
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Thread from a Scientist who specializes in virus study


(@trvrb)

At this point, we think that a substantial fraction of the population of Florida has had COVID-19. If we use a 8:1 ratio of confirmed cases to underlying infections, we'd estimate 510k x 8 = ~4M infections in Florida or roughly 20% of the population. 10/16


(@trvrb)

Similarly, covid19-projections currently estimates 21% of Florida has had COVID-19 at this point. 11/16


(@trvrb)

Thus, I believe the substantial epidemics in Arizona, Florida and Texas will leave enough immunity to assist in keeping COVID-19 controlled. However, this level of immunity is not compatible with a full return to societal behavior as existed before the pandemic. 15/16


read more: [link to twitter.com (secure)]




Controlled, but not necessarily improving. And of course, immunity could well be temporary.

Eventually people are going to get fatigued with having to go along with new normal behaviors and mitigation measures for an extended period of time. Add in the uncertainty about how much the transmission rate will be impacted once the schools re-open.

Controlled, for now...
 
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