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REPORT COPYRIGHT VIOLATION IN REPLY
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Message Subject
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COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
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Poster Handle
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Anonymous Coward |
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Post Content
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Thread from a Scientist who specializes in virus study (@trvrb)
At this point, we think that a substantial fraction of the population of Florida has had COVID-19. If we use a 8:1 ratio of confirmed cases to underlying infections, we'd estimate 510k x 8 = ~4M infections in Florida or roughly 20% of the population. 10/16
(@trvrb)
Similarly, covid19-projections currently estimates 21% of Florida has had COVID-19 at this point. 11/16
(@trvrb)
Thus, I believe the substantial epidemics in Arizona, Florida and Texas will leave enough immunity to assist in keeping COVID-19 controlled. However, this level of immunity is not compatible with a full return to societal behavior as existed before the pandemic. 15/16read more: [ link to twitter.com (secure)] Controlled, but not necessarily improving. And of course, immunity could well be temporary. Eventually people are going to get fatigued with having to go along with new normal behaviors and mitigation measures for an extended period of time. Add in the uncertainty about how much the transmission rate will be impacted once the schools re-open. Controlled, for now... And if there isn’t a vaccine that works and existing treatments only partially work, then we could be looking at a slow civilizational collapse on a global scale. It won’t be the deaths that cause the collapse, but all the people who caught the virus, survived, but are left with a disabling post-viral syndrome that leaves them unable to work. I’ve seen information suggesting that up to 55% of survivors are afflicted with the syndrome, although I don’t know how large the sample size is for the study that identified the problem, or whether it can be generalized to the population of all known COVID-19 survivors.
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