BREAKING: A new election model released by FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 71 percent chance of winning the White House

A new election model released by FiveThirtyEight gives presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden a 71 percent chance of winning the White House, compared to 29 percent for President Trump.

The analysis gives Trump a greater chance at reelection than any other current models.

For example, The Economist’s forecast gives Trump only a 10 percent chance of victory at this time.

Biden leads Trump nationally by 8 points in the FiveThirtyEight model, down from 9.6 points one month ago. Biden has clear leads in the polling averages in five of the six core battleground states of Florida (5.2 points), Wisconsin (6.2 points), Michigan (7.4 points), Pennsylvania (6.3 points) and Arizona (3.4 points).

Biden leads by 1.4 points or less in North Carolina and Ohio. Trump leads by 1.5 points or less in Georgia, Texas and Iowa.

That breakdown provides Biden more room for error and a larger pathway to victory currently, and the polls have been relatively steady for months.

However, FiveThirtyEight editor in chief Nate Silver noted that a lot could change in the final 83 days before the Nov. 3 election. The conventions and debates still lie ahead, and no one knows what the coronavirus or economy will look like in three months.

Analysts say that Trump could potentially lose the national popular vote by 4 points and still win the Electoral College in November. Biden has an 81 percent chance of winning the popular vote, compared to only a 71 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. However, the FiveThirtyEight model gives Biden a 30 percent chance of winning the popular vote by double digits.

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