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| 03:46 AM | ||
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Stocks, Gold, & Crypto Crushed As Dollar Spikes! | |
Sotired
 User ID: 2492899  United States09/21/2020 11:56 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | What did they think was going to happen without the second stimulus bill? Any idiot could do this math. Demand has collapsed. The only way you will see a resurgence in demand would be to mail out more checks. People will only spend what they have to now unless you just give them cash. |
| Don Draper from Nantucket
(OP) User ID: 57553864 United States09/21/2020 11:59 AM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | If the dollar is so strong, then why is the rest of the world trying to dump them?.... This is the last swan song, maybe? but it's coming someday. Quoting: taternuts Remember, DXY is relative strength, not absolute. The dollar "spiked" (if you could call it a spike) against other major fiat currencies. But guys, we are going to see deflation before we see inflation. All of the macro indicators are deflationary. You can't have large swaths of the economy collapse along with demand and think this is inflationary. It's not. The only thing that will turn this around to inflationary will be Congress. The Fed can't make inflation. Only Congress can with stimulus programs sending the money out into the economy. QE is not inflationary, it's deflationary. It literally reduces the money supply as it removes debt. We are heading for a crash if Congress doesn't authorize stimulus spending. For years I have searched for explainations about why QE is deflationary. You just about explained it in one sentence. It's counterintuitive, but that's how it works. They remove debt in an effort to drive rates lower. It would only become inflationary if the lower rates actually then entice more borrowers to borrow. But if lenders aren't lending...then borrowers aren't borrowing and our debt based money supply is actually shrinking. People act like the money the Fed pays for the bonds is then spent by the banks to buy up equities, but they literally can't spend it. That "money" goes into a special account for them with the Fed and counts toward their reserves. So the banks take a liquid asset (a bond), that they could sell on the market for cash to use as they choose, but instead, they sell it to the Fed in QE which ties up the bond and also ties up the cash in a restricted account. So QE has net reduced the money supply wit the effect of putting downward pressure on interest rates. Steven van Metre is a really good sound financial source on YouTube. It's good to listen to opposing thoughts as it helps us get a bigger picture. I'm long term bearish on the dollar, but short term it's going to pop upward and mid term, we will be dealing with it. Only an a literal act of Congress with stimulus could put downward pressure on it at this point. Do you think that is what's coming next? And do you think these mini crashes are created or used to initiate that exact response? PLATA BITCHEZZZZZZ UPGRADE UNAVAILABLE The Rolling Stones said it best... "What's confusing you is the nature of my game" |
| Don Draper from Nantucket
(OP) User ID: 57553864 United States09/21/2020 12:01 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | What did they think was going to happen without the second stimulus bill? Any idiot could do this math. Demand has collapsed. The only way you will see a resurgence in demand would be to mail out more checks. People will only spend what they have to now unless you just give them cash. I agree! This standoff between both sides is looking more and more suspicious everday they don't reach an agreement! PLATA BITCHEZZZZZZ UPGRADE UNAVAILABLE The Rolling Stones said it best... "What's confusing you is the nature of my game" |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 76901748 United States09/21/2020 12:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77248319 United States09/21/2020 12:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yes it does apprear this is NOT a good day for the markets. EVERYTHING is tanking except of course the Dollar which makes no fucking sense at all. Every crypto's are tanking. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34166608 NEM is up 3%...If you've kept your powder dry, today's a good day for buying! Take your coins that are in profit and sell them for coins that are on sale. Rinse and repeat next time and you've made some money! |
| Agent 99
User ID: 77082640 United States09/21/2020 12:06 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Last dip was August after the Deal of the Century, when UAE accepted Israel. Quoting: Agent 99 This one could be because King Salman has died. Only big money could be making the market/gold/currency move like this! That's interesting. At the same time Iran, across the Gulf, is heating up. Looks like war positioning for big players. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 6806629 United States09/21/2020 12:09 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | What did they think was going to happen without the second stimulus bill? Any idiot could do this math. Demand has collapsed. The only way you will see a resurgence in demand would be to mail out more checks. People will only spend what they have to now unless you just give them cash. I agree! This standoff between both sides is looking more and more suspicious everday they don't reach an agreement! Stimulus is a short term fix and this has been the case since 2008. Global debt levels are the problem because of too much easy money. The global economy is going to have to face the music eventually. How it turns out is anyone's guess at the moment. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 21096826 United States09/21/2020 12:10 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq ALL have a series of gaps back down to their six month ago lows. These will be filled, just like the gaps were, on the way up. However, when we fill these gaps and blow through all the support lines, they will become resistance, and not recover like we just saw. The attempt to rebound will hit ever resistance line and slap price even lower. |
| Sotired
User ID: 2492899 United States09/21/2020 12:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2492899 Remember, DXY is relative strength, not absolute. The dollar "spiked" (if you could call it a spike) against other major fiat currencies. But guys, we are going to see deflation before we see inflation. All of the macro indicators are deflationary. You can't have large swaths of the economy collapse along with demand and think this is inflationary. It's not. The only thing that will turn this around to inflationary will be Congress. The Fed can't make inflation. Only Congress can with stimulus programs sending the money out into the economy. QE is not inflationary, it's deflationary. It literally reduces the money supply as it removes debt. We are heading for a crash if Congress doesn't authorize stimulus spending. For years I have searched for explainations about why QE is deflationary. You just about explained it in one sentence. It's counterintuitive, but that's how it works. They remove debt in an effort to drive rates lower. It would only become inflationary if the lower rates actually then entice more borrowers to borrow. But if lenders aren't lending...then borrowers aren't borrowing and our debt based money supply is actually shrinking. People act like the money the Fed pays for the bonds is then spent by the banks to buy up equities, but they literally can't spend it. That "money" goes into a special account for them with the Fed and counts toward their reserves. So the banks take a liquid asset (a bond), that they could sell on the market for cash to use as they choose, but instead, they sell it to the Fed in QE which ties up the bond and also ties up the cash in a restricted account. So QE has net reduced the money supply wit the effect of putting downward pressure on interest rates. Steven van Metre is a really good sound financial source on YouTube. It's good to listen to opposing thoughts as it helps us get a bigger picture. I'm long term bearish on the dollar, but short term it's going to pop upward and mid term, we will be dealing with it. Only an a literal act of Congress with stimulus could put downward pressure on it at this point. Do you think that is what's coming next? And do you think these mini crashes are created or used to initiate that exact response? I think that's been the thesis for most people, they just put the cart before the horse. What the Fed has been doing isn't directly inflationary, only if it spurs lending. Lending is inflationary because that's the true expansion of the money supply. It's not "printer goes brrr". It's lending that does the trick. But economic collapse is completely deflationary. There is far too little lending which means all loan payments are deflationary since they are destroying money. Also, all debt defaults are then added deflationary...and lots of that going on as people default on mortgages and businesses go under defaulting on their debts. The real thesis is that the collapse that comes at the end of the debt cycle where we are will be so big and have such immense deflationary pressure that the government will just print its way out. That's not the Fed though, that would be Congress in the form of stimulus bills. In the end, there will probably be massive stimulus. However, significant inflation wouldn't be seen until the economy picked up on its own and lending kicked into high gear. Hyperinflation doesn't take off unless there's enough good economic activity going on to kick it off. If the government mailed checks to people every week, we wouldn't see a drop of inflation unless people actually spent it. Even then, it would only fill the gaping hole of the collapsed demand that we used to have, and not enough totally. Inflation wouldn't pick up unless the stimulus actively got banks to lend and people to borrow. THAT is what would cause the excess currency to start contributing to inflation. So the only way we get to the hyperinflationary scenario is if Congress panics in response to this collapse and begins to stimulate heavily with direct cash payments. It will be in anywhere from a year or more for hyperinflation to kick in when and if economic activity picks up on its own. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77083188 United States09/21/2020 12:14 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | They will now "pull it" and usher in the Harris Biden era. By election day the corner stone of the Trump presidency ,the economy,will be a smoking crater. Harris, who has zero experience and is a California liberal, will be the P.O.T.U.S. within months.This all seems like a far off nightmare but it is closer than you think. The Biden plan for Covid is a complete lock down and tanking of the economy.The swamp is coming and it won't be pretty....PREPARE !!!!    |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78914103 09/21/2020 12:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | sucks..I always learned buy when there is blood in the street and sell when there is a party..but I am a dollar cost average buy and hold kindof guy..used to do dips and drips but the paperwork for owning 40 diff companies come tax time was horrific... Quoting: diverdan01 " They " have been controlling the markets since before the inception of the modern economic exchange. So everyone is going to be relying on " tried and true " market strategies and all going to fail. Only " they " on the inside will know and likely have already cashed out. |
| Don Draper from Nantucket
(OP) User ID: 57553864 United States09/21/2020 12:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71991067 For years I have searched for explainations about why QE is deflationary. You just about explained it in one sentence. It's counterintuitive, but that's how it works. They remove debt in an effort to drive rates lower. It would only become inflationary if the lower rates actually then entice more borrowers to borrow. But if lenders aren't lending...then borrowers aren't borrowing and our debt based money supply is actually shrinking. People act like the money the Fed pays for the bonds is then spent by the banks to buy up equities, but they literally can't spend it. That "money" goes into a special account for them with the Fed and counts toward their reserves. So the banks take a liquid asset (a bond), that they could sell on the market for cash to use as they choose, but instead, they sell it to the Fed in QE which ties up the bond and also ties up the cash in a restricted account. So QE has net reduced the money supply wit the effect of putting downward pressure on interest rates. Steven van Metre is a really good sound financial source on YouTube. It's good to listen to opposing thoughts as it helps us get a bigger picture. I'm long term bearish on the dollar, but short term it's going to pop upward and mid term, we will be dealing with it. Only an a literal act of Congress with stimulus could put downward pressure on it at this point. Do you think that is what's coming next? And do you think these mini crashes are created or used to initiate that exact response? I think that's been the thesis for most people, they just put the cart before the horse. What the Fed has been doing isn't directly inflationary, only if it spurs lending. Lending is inflationary because that's the true expansion of the money supply. It's not "printer goes brrr". It's lending that does the trick. But economic collapse is completely deflationary. There is far too little lending which means all loan payments are deflationary since they are destroying money. Also, all debt defaults are then added deflationary...and lots of that going on as people default on mortgages and businesses go under defaulting on their debts. The real thesis is that the collapse that comes at the end of the debt cycle where we are will be so big and have such immense deflationary pressure that the government will just print its way out. That's not the Fed though, that would be Congress in the form of stimulus bills. In the end, there will probably be massive stimulus. However, significant inflation wouldn't be seen until the economy picked up on its own and lending kicked into high gear. Hyperinflation doesn't take off unless there's enough good economic activity going on to kick it off. If the government mailed checks to people every week, we wouldn't see a drop of inflation unless people actually spent it. Even then, it would only fill the gaping hole of the collapsed demand that we used to have, and not enough totally. Inflation wouldn't pick up unless the stimulus actively got banks to lend and people to borrow. THAT is what would cause the excess currency to start contributing to inflation. So the only way we get to the hyperinflationary scenario is if Congress panics in response to this collapse and begins to stimulate heavily with direct cash payments. It will be in anywhere from a year or more for hyperinflation to kick in when and if economic activity picks up on its own. Very insightful and well said! Thanks for that. So my only question is do you think that a massive QE 7 or whatever were up to is coming in short order? PLATA BITCHEZZZZZZ UPGRADE UNAVAILABLE The Rolling Stones said it best... "What's confusing you is the nature of my game" |
| Don Draper from Nantucket
(OP) User ID: 57553864 United States09/21/2020 12:30 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | They will now "pull it" and usher in the Harris Biden era. By election day the corner stone of the Trump presidency ,the economy,will be a smoking crater. Harris, who has zero experience and is a California liberal, will be the P.O.T.U.S. within months.This all seems like a far off nightmare but it is closer than you think. The Biden plan for Covid is a complete lock down and tanking of the economy.The swamp is coming and it won't be pretty....PREPARE !!!! Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77083188 Your scenario has made me reconsider sobriety!  All I can say is please Lord do not let this happen. PLATA BITCHEZZZZZZ UPGRADE UNAVAILABLE The Rolling Stones said it best... "What's confusing you is the nature of my game" |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78215030 United States09/21/2020 12:30 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 78215030 United States09/21/2020 12:31 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Hard Eight
User ID: 75863275 United States09/21/2020 12:32 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Strong dollar means a new war is likely to break out in the near future. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79401967 Chi-Nah Texas has yet to learn submission to any oppression, come from what source it may. Sam Houston "The beauty of the Second Amendment is that it will not be needed until they try to take it." Thomas Jefferson If you don't read the newspaper you are uninformed, if you do read the newspaper you are misinformed. -- Mark Twain Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and keys to teenage boys. -- P.J. O'Rourke, Civil Libertarian |
| Sotired
User ID: 2492899 United States09/21/2020 12:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2492899 It's counterintuitive, but that's how it works. They remove debt in an effort to drive rates lower. It would only become inflationary if the lower rates actually then entice more borrowers to borrow. But if lenders aren't lending...then borrowers aren't borrowing and our debt based money supply is actually shrinking. People act like the money the Fed pays for the bonds is then spent by the banks to buy up equities, but they literally can't spend it. That "money" goes into a special account for them with the Fed and counts toward their reserves. So the banks take a liquid asset (a bond), that they could sell on the market for cash to use as they choose, but instead, they sell it to the Fed in QE which ties up the bond and also ties up the cash in a restricted account. So QE has net reduced the money supply wit the effect of putting downward pressure on interest rates. Steven van Metre is a really good sound financial source on YouTube. It's good to listen to opposing thoughts as it helps us get a bigger picture. I'm long term bearish on the dollar, but short term it's going to pop upward and mid term, we will be dealing with it. Only an a literal act of Congress with stimulus could put downward pressure on it at this point. Do you think that is what's coming next? And do you think these mini crashes are created or used to initiate that exact response? I think that's been the thesis for most people, they just put the cart before the horse. What the Fed has been doing isn't directly inflationary, only if it spurs lending. Lending is inflationary because that's the true expansion of the money supply. It's not "printer goes brrr". It's lending that does the trick. But economic collapse is completely deflationary. There is far too little lending which means all loan payments are deflationary since they are destroying money. Also, all debt defaults are then added deflationary...and lots of that going on as people default on mortgages and businesses go under defaulting on their debts. The real thesis is that the collapse that comes at the end of the debt cycle where we are will be so big and have such immense deflationary pressure that the government will just print its way out. That's not the Fed though, that would be Congress in the form of stimulus bills. In the end, there will probably be massive stimulus. However, significant inflation wouldn't be seen until the economy picked up on its own and lending kicked into high gear. Hyperinflation doesn't take off unless there's enough good economic activity going on to kick it off. If the government mailed checks to people every week, we wouldn't see a drop of inflation unless people actually spent it. Even then, it would only fill the gaping hole of the collapsed demand that we used to have, and not enough totally. Inflation wouldn't pick up unless the stimulus actively got banks to lend and people to borrow. THAT is what would cause the excess currency to start contributing to inflation. So the only way we get to the hyperinflationary scenario is if Congress panics in response to this collapse and begins to stimulate heavily with direct cash payments. It will be in anywhere from a year or more for hyperinflation to kick in when and if economic activity picks up on its own. Very insightful and well said! Thanks for that. So my only question is do you think that a massive QE 7 or whatever were up to is coming in short order? The Fed's balance sheet is leveling off. So it doesn't look like repurchasing is happening in large quantities. At this point, the Fed doesn't need to since lending is tightening and rates are falling without QE. But I imagine they would jump to more QE if rates started to rise. But another round of QE isn't going to do what people think it does. The only thing that will cause that will be stimulus from Congress. I could also see the Treasury ordering banks to lend behind closed doors. Lending would be the only inflationary pressure absent Congress spending. But consumer confidence is in the tank and many people are still unemployed. Consumer habits have been permanently changed by this whole ordeal. We have the foreclosures/eviction thing on the horizon ready to blow up real estate. There's no V shaped recovery. We are going to see deflation until Congress starts inflating with stimulus. If the stimulus is big enough, we could see big inflation, but only after the economy starts to kick again on its own. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77569959 United States09/21/2020 12:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
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| Vision Thing
User ID: 79342957 United States09/21/2020 12:49 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | If the dollar is so strong, then why is the rest of the world trying to dump them?.... This is the last swan song, maybe? but it's coming someday. Quoting: taternuts Remember, DXY is relative strength, not absolute. The dollar "spiked" (if you could call it a spike) against other major fiat currencies. But guys, we are going to see deflation before we see inflation. All of the macro indicators are deflationary. You can't have large swaths of the economy collapse along with demand and think this is inflationary. It's not. The only thing that will turn this around to inflationary will be Congress. The Fed can't make inflation. Only Congress can with stimulus programs sending the money out into the economy. QE is not inflationary, it's deflationary. It literally reduces the money supply as it removes debt. We are heading for a crash if Congress doesn't authorize stimulus spending. For years I have searched for explainations about why QE is deflationary. You just about explained it in one sentence. Nice. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 79011998 United States09/21/2020 12:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 79401328 United States09/21/2020 12:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 79401328 United States09/21/2020 12:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 79403229 United States09/21/2020 12:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78042016 They do.... much less than crypto though.. BTC/ETH/XRP are all very heavily traded by institutions... Some advisors say 70% of market is institutional investors that may be so but they have no intrinsic value imho. Bitstrings backed by fiat..not saying you can't profit off them but they have no intrinsic value imho. There are hundreds of them now and people pick one or the other for no good reason..very similar to penny stock 'trading'. 99.9% of pink sheet stocks are not worth the paper they are printed on but hey, you can get lucky. so they are penny stocks then.. so the question is this how likely is there to be a gold mine or radical new invention or tech to cash in on with most of them? Look..I almost bought 1000 bitcoins for under a buck many years ago and could have made millions, and would have happily accepted that..that being said, aside from being an 'interesting' place to throw some money and forget it for a while, I saw no intrinsic value in it then and don't now. I don't think it passes the test for sound money. I do think it's an interesting technology or framework for processing transactions and can be thought of as 'containers' for whatever you want to stuff in them. All that being said, I don't think they are worth anything in and of themselves. Doesn't mean you can't make money off them. I just don't think they are worth anything by themselves. At least silver can make a spoon or a coin. The value of a crypto currency worth investing in, is its utility. What problem does it solve?  - - - - - - |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 79300919  Canada09/21/2020 12:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | If the dollar is so strong, then why is the rest of the world trying to dump them?.... This is the last swan song, maybe? but it's coming someday. Quoting: taternuts Remember, DXY is relative strength, not absolute. The dollar "spiked" (if you could call it a spike) against other major fiat currencies. But guys, we are going to see deflation before we see inflation. All of the macro indicators are deflationary. You can't have large swaths of the economy collapse along with demand and think this is inflationary. It's not. The only thing that will turn this around to inflationary will be Congress. The Fed can't make inflation. Only Congress can with stimulus programs sending the money out into the economy. QE is not inflationary, it's deflationary. It literally reduces the money supply as it removes debt. We are heading for a crash if Congress doesn't authorize stimulus spending. For years I have searched for explainations about why QE is deflationary. You just about explained it in one sentence. It's counterintuitive, but that's how it works. They remove debt in an effort to drive rates lower. It would only become inflationary if the lower rates actually then entice more borrowers to borrow. But if lenders aren't lending...then borrowers aren't borrowing and our debt based money supply is actually shrinking. People act like the money the Fed pays for the bonds is then spent by the banks to buy up equities, but they literally can't spend it. That "money" goes into a special account for them with the Fed and counts toward their reserves. So the banks take a liquid asset (a bond), that they could sell on the market for cash to use as they choose, but instead, they sell it to the Fed in QE which ties up the bond and also ties up the cash in a restricted account. So QE has net reduced the money supply wit the effect of putting downward pressure on interest rates. Steven van Metre is a really good sound financial source on YouTube. It's good to listen to opposing thoughts as it helps us get a bigger picture. I'm long term bearish on the dollar, but short term it's going to pop upward and mid term, we will be dealing with it. Only an a literal act of Congress with stimulus could put downward pressure on it at this point. If QE is deflationary, why have we seen inflation in the price of assets (equities and real estate) over the last ten years? The economy has never really recovered from the 2008 crisis so we can't attribute the increase to economic growth. Also, what's been fueling the unprecedented wealth inequality/transfer, with the top 0.1 having a much larger share of overall wealth? |
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