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Democracy Institute Poll: The Only Presidential Election Poll Worth Watching. Trump Is Winning.

 
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Democracy Institute Poll: The Only Presidential Election Poll Worth Watching. Trump Is Winning.
Are MSM presidential election polls garbage? Yes!

Meet Patrick Basham...


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Only One Poll Shows Trump Leading. I Interviewed The Poll’s Director.
By Jim Rossi | Oct 13, 2020

(forbes.com) - Poll after poll show Joe Biden as heavy favorite - despite him not knowing what state he was in when campaigning here in Las Vegas last week, and him mistakenly saying he’s running for Senate. While the Real Clear Politics average has Biden up 10 points, Donald Trump’s betting odds have taken a dive. After a peak of 48%, Bovada LV has Orange Man underdogging it at 35% - Biden -200, Trump +170. The Real Clear Politics average sits at 32.5%.

But not all is as it seems, according to Patrick Basham, polling director at the Democracy Institute. The Democracy Institute is a relative newcomer to political polling - but it correctly forecast Brexit and Trump’s historic 2016 upset. Basham’s latest poll has Trump up 46% to 45%, and up four points in the critical battleground states. I asked Basham why his poll looks so different than the others - and why it’s getting so little mainstream media play...


JIM: How is the Democracy Institute poll different?

PATRICK: Two key ways – turnout and estimating shy Trump voters or secret Trump voters. The Democracy Institute - along with Zogby and Trafalgar Group – those of us who find a very competitive race see turnout very similar to 2016.

JIM: You work with the libertarian Cato Institute. Most if not all major polls have affiliations with media companies, think tanks, and universities.

PATRICK: Now you have the issue of agendas. It appears today that many corporations and media outlets clearly have a horse in this race and show their candidate to be well ahead. Certain reward for a certain outcome.

JIM: You mention a couple examples.

PATRICK: ORC - Opinion Research Corporation - got fired by CNN after the 2016 election. Their main transgression was that they were pretty accurate.

JIM: Coming from CNN, that doesn’t surprise me.

PATRICK: The USC poll - University of Southern California - repeatedly asks the same respondents 2 or 3 questions daily…

JIM: Like a cross between a poll and a focus group?

PATRICK: …and it showed Trump competitive in 2016. In late September 2020, it was showing Biden’s lead evaporate. They claimed “technical problems” and changed their methodology. They are underpolling GOP voters.

JIM: Let me ask about secret Trump voters aka shy Trump voters. In today’s “woke” “cancel culture,” people risk social ostracism, job loss, mob intimidation and outright violence. Bettors on the underdog see an edge here. Can we measure these voters?

PATRICK: How I come at this is, Democracy Institute’s first public foray into public polling was Brexit. We got it correct – within one percentage point (4% - actual result vs. 3% - our projected result). The reason why we got it right – maybe the only reason – is we believed there were shy Brexit voters. So we devised questions to find out, then applied that to the US election in 2016. We discovered shy Trump voters – a few percentage points, low single digits – but significant in a close race.

Now we come to 2020, and a lot of people are looking. What we found is they do exist and in greater numbers. Our questions go like this: ‘If you were a Trump voter, would you tell anybody? Would you tell family? A friend? A coworker? Would you put a sign on your lawn or your car?’

JIM: In 2016, Trump outperformed the Real Clear Politics average for battleground states by four points. Is that a good over/under for 2020?

PATRICK: I’d advise you to take the over. Nationally - and this is probably conservative, we see it at 5 to 6%. State by state, where the rubber hits the road in the Electoral College, it varies more. We estimate more in battleground states…

JIM: Some of these are literally battleground states – as people argue and in some cases engage in violence.

PATRICK: Very crudely stated, we see three types of shy Trump voters. First is the blue-collar, middle aged white male in the rural Midwest. He is more busy than afraid to tell you. Second is the white suburban female. Third are African-American and Hispanic voters. They are moving toward Trump in significant, maybe even historic numbers.

JIM: In my experience, people don’t easily change their political views. But two things can change that: serious economic risks and physical danger.

PATRICK: The #1 predictor of voting Republican is owning a handgun. Black female gun ownership has skyrocketed. Forty percent of new handgun owners are female; sixty percent are African American.

JIM: How has the media covered your poll? Let me put it another way: Has the media covered your poll, with the exception of the UK Sunday Express and Breitbart? At absolute minimum, it seems very ‘man bites dog’ and a juicy story.

PATRICK: If we lived in a media world today like we used to, or a media world we wish it to be, you’d assume our ‘man bites dog’ story is at least newsworthy. We were getting some attention with our monthly poll. Then two months ago, our September poll showed Trump up 48-45 nationally and up 49-42 in battleground states. Trump started tweeting about it.

Then when the October poll came out, Trump was in the hospital with COVID-19. Our poll was the only thing he tweeted about that day. We got hate mail and personal attacks on a scale that was hard to encounter. How we produced the numbers was not challenged, just that we produced numbers others don’t like. We’ve gone from having the most media-ignored poll to the most infamous poll.

JIM: Do Real Clear Politics or CNN have any objective criteria for being included in their reporting?

PATRICK: Real Clear Politics has no hard-and-fast rules. CNN said, ‘We don’t meet their standards.’ I agree. We tend to be accurate. They simply don’t want a counter-narrative.

JIM: How about FiveThirtyEight?

PATRICK: Most of the polls they have the highest rated are the ones with the worst record in recent years...


FULL INTERVIEW HERE: [link to www.forbes.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/21/2020 02:28 AM
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Re: Democracy Institute Poll: The Only Presidential Election Poll Worth Watching. Trump Is Winning.
Patrick Basham Democracy Institute | How political polls work | Leighton Smith Podcast

Patrick Basham from Democracy Institute talks to us about political polls. He explains the results of the Institute’s latest presidential poll and how it all works.

(length 40:13)


[link to youtu.be (secure)]
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10/21/2020 03:22 AM
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Re: Democracy Institute Poll: The Only Presidential Election Poll Worth Watching. Trump Is Winning.
:truthlies:
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10/21/2020 03:34 AM
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Re: Democracy Institute Poll: The Only Presidential Election Poll Worth Watching. Trump Is Winning.
:trump 2020:
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10/21/2020 08:33 AM
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Re: Democracy Institute Poll: The Only Presidential Election Poll Worth Watching. Trump Is Winning.
:trumpbump:
Jake

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10/21/2020 08:37 AM
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Re: Democracy Institute Poll: The Only Presidential Election Poll Worth Watching. Trump Is Winning.
IF REPUBLICANS GET OFF THEIR ASSES AND VOTE TWICE LIKE DEMOCRATS DO, ITS A NO BRAINER


Record Breaking new sign ups for GOP in every single state Nearly 50% of Rally attendees not Republican


















Evil controls the ignorant... Climate change is a hoax so is the vax you have been fear-porned into compliance!

Definition Satan from the bible: Satan (Rev 12:7) exercising his subtle (indirect) impact on heathen governments (powers) – i.e. accomplishing his hellish agenda from "behind the scenes."
beeches

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10/21/2020 08:37 AM

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Re: Democracy Institute Poll: The Only Presidential Election Poll Worth Watching. Trump Is Winning.
trump 2020
 Quoting: Hastam Ruptor


Great !!!
Liberalism is totalitarianism with a human face – Thomas Sowell
Jake

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10/21/2020 08:40 AM
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Re: Democracy Institute Poll: The Only Presidential Election Poll Worth Watching. Trump Is Winning.

Evil controls the ignorant... Climate change is a hoax so is the vax you have been fear-porned into compliance!

Definition Satan from the bible: Satan (Rev 12:7) exercising his subtle (indirect) impact on heathen governments (powers) – i.e. accomplishing his hellish agenda from "behind the scenes."
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10/21/2020 12:15 PM
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Re: Democracy Institute Poll: The Only Presidential Election Poll Worth Watching. Trump Is Winning.


:goodpost:
diverdan01

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10/21/2020 12:18 PM
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Re: Democracy Institute Poll: The Only Presidential Election Poll Worth Watching. Trump Is Winning.
how could he not be? Biden is a crooked pedo joke and headboard heels up kumalot Harris is a Hoe
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10/21/2020 01:45 PM
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Re: Democracy Institute Poll: The Only Presidential Election Poll Worth Watching. Trump Is Winning.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/22/2020 03:17 AM
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Re: Democracy Institute Poll: The Only Presidential Election Poll Worth Watching. Trump Is Winning.
how could he not be? Biden is a crooked pedo joke and headboard heels up kumalot Harris is a Hoe
 Quoting: diverdan01


kumalot

lol
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/22/2020 03:17 AM
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Re: Democracy Institute Poll: The Only Presidential Election Poll Worth Watching. Trump Is Winning.
MSM polls...

:lie:





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