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| 07:43 PM | ||
| Users Online Now: 1,968 (Who's On?) | Visitors Today: 1,119,993 | |
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| 07:43 PM | ||
It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big | |
Zalinsky
 User ID: 45481864  United States10/27/2020 07:00 AM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| beeches
User ID: 78973486 United States10/27/2020 07:01 AM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 73802151 United States10/27/2020 07:02 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Pepperroni
Fck mean people. User ID: 74285753 United States10/27/2020 07:04 AM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation |  I’ve always told a ya, the media’s not your friend.” ~ Chris Cuomo … The same media that told you all these lies for the last at least 50 years, is telling you that Joey Bribes won. For by pharmakeia, were all nations deceived. |
| beeches
User ID: 78973486 United States10/27/2020 07:06 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 75969991  Canada10/27/2020 07:06 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 75658817 United States10/27/2020 07:07 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 79322861 United States10/27/2020 07:08 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 79547392  Ireland10/27/2020 07:08 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Tsutsue
User ID: 79233602  United Kingdom10/27/2020 07:12 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77137727 United States10/27/2020 07:13 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The turnout this year is what trump had in 2016. Except this time it is a ground swell of dims. Make no mistake, no one is voting for Biden. Everyone is voting against the buffoon. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77137727 United States10/27/2020 07:15 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Let Freedom Ring 365
User ID: 77952400 United States10/27/2020 07:18 AM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Most family, friends and colleagues I know are voting Trump and I live in a democratic state... On a separate note - went to his rally on Sunday and it was amazing!!! I think there were about 10,000 people. We were so close to him - about 10 rows back! You are the creator of your own master plan... Make it a good one. Wake the fuk up and be ready... This is absolutely no time to be stupid! “If you want to find the secrets of the universe, think in terms of energy, frequency and vibration.” - Nikola Tesla |
| SugarSand
User ID: 9296373 United States10/27/2020 07:18 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I came to a very similar conclusion, but I'm really disturbed by the difference between my thinking and what the polls and media are saying. Could I be that wrong? Next week can't come fast enough. Went to the produce market yesterday in Southern New Jersey. Ended up in a random conversation with the owner and 2 old ladies who entered separately about whether or not Trump will win NEW JERSEY! He probably won't - we have a hell of a democrat machine to overcome ... but the fact that we were even discussing it was amazing. And no wonder ... Everyone we know is voting Trump except the loudest loudmouth partisans. It's Pennsylvania that's scary. My own snap polling says Trump wins PA by as much as they are insisting he will lose. It doesn't make sense that he's so far behind - only since COVID has this happened. But I also don't understand how Trump voters in PA are THAT SHY to produce those numbers. They aren't that shy. I see Trump stuff everywhere I go in PA except in Philly. Either I'm right and ALL that stuff is wrong or I'm completely out of touch with reality. It's a really weird feeling and kind of scary. Last Edited by SugarSand on 10/27/2020 07:19 AM When the shit hits the fan and the end is just nigh, will you cry out to Heaven? Will you lie down and die? Not me, my dear one - THIS IS MY SACRED LIFE - to no one nor no thing I'll surrender. For how does one know where when dead she will go, or if sweet Mother Earth he'll remember? - Sug |
| Limpan
User ID: 76068685  Sweden10/27/2020 07:19 AM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This is not my original analysis. I am piggybacking on the efforts of this guy: Quoting: Zalinsky It's a good video that looks at existing voting patterns and ballots returned and tries to extrapolate them to see what kind of turn out Trump needs on election day to win. He also has made it Google Sheets model public, so for nerds like me, you can download it and play with the numbers yourself. He references very interesting data here: [link to targetearly.targetsmart.com (secure)] The guy shows Biden winning in every battleground state at the moment, usually with estimated leads of 3-4%. This is an oversimplification, but for Trump to win, he would need to win Election Day by about that much in reverse. What's interesting is when you combine it with data like the following two links, which show a huge difference between parties on who will vote on Election Day. In PA, this Emerson survey showed 81% of Trump voters will vote on Election Day, while only 36% plan of Biden voters plan to vote on Election Day. [link to www.wane.com (secure)] In FL, this Emerson survey showed 53% of Trump voters will vote on Election Day, while only 17% plan of Biden voters plan to vote on Election Day. [link to emersonpolling.reportablenews.com (secure)] Now, there are some huge assumptions here: Unaffiliated Voters will split 50/50 People will actually vote early/late as declared People will more or less vote their declared party The TargetSmart estimates are good But if those assumptions are sound, my numbers show the following: Turnout is huge. Trump is going to crush Biden. My FL numbers show a stupid blowout, greater than 55% to 45%. There is so much variability and so many assumptions, that it's not worth focusing on the exact numbers, but the fact is that Biden should have much bigger lead in Democratic submitted ballots than he has now if Election Day is really a dominant Trump day. I have similar results even in leaning blue states like NV and NH. Biden just doesn't have much of a lead there at the moment. If this is true, states like NM might even be in play. And remamber, more democrates are voting on Trump then the other way around. So it is looking good  |
| SugarSand
User ID: 9296373 United States10/27/2020 07:22 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | They aren't stupid. They weren't wearing masks either ... I was the only jackass wearing a mask lol. When the shit hits the fan and the end is just nigh, will you cry out to Heaven? Will you lie down and die? Not me, my dear one - THIS IS MY SACRED LIFE - to no one nor no thing I'll surrender. For how does one know where when dead she will go, or if sweet Mother Earth he'll remember? - Sug |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 79493927  Australia10/27/2020 07:22 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| SugarSand
User ID: 9296373 United States10/27/2020 07:23 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I think we might see a return of the Reagan Democrats. My dem work colleagues poo-pooed that saying how trump ain't no Ronnie ... but we ain't no 1984 either :) When the shit hits the fan and the end is just nigh, will you cry out to Heaven? Will you lie down and die? Not me, my dear one - THIS IS MY SACRED LIFE - to no one nor no thing I'll surrender. For how does one know where when dead she will go, or if sweet Mother Earth he'll remember? - Sug |
| Over watch
User ID: 77310877 United States10/27/2020 07:24 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Zalinsky
(OP) User ID: 45481864 United States10/27/2020 07:25 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Come back next Wednesday for some humble pie, lol. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77137727 The turnout this year is what trump had in 2016. Except this time it is a ground swell of dims. Make no mistake, no one is voting for Biden. Everyone is voting against the buffoon. Maybe that's right. May be the "unaffiliated" voters are breaking hard to Biden. One of the big assumptions is that it is about 50/50 on those voters. The guy in the video says surveys show 45/55 or 55/45 back and forth. I haven't seen that data myself so not sure. I will say if the self-reported numbers on when people are planning to vote is accurate, Biden should have a much bigger lead. |
| Zalinsky
(OP) User ID: 45481864 United States10/27/2020 07:27 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I came to a very similar conclusion, but I'm really disturbed by the difference between my thinking and what the polls and media are saying. Quoting: SugarSand Could I be that wrong? Next week can't come fast enough. Went to the produce market yesterday in Southern New Jersey. Ended up in a random conversation with the owner and 2 old ladies who entered separately about whether or not Trump will win NEW JERSEY! He probably won't - we have a hell of a democrat machine to overcome ... but the fact that we were even discussing it was amazing. And no wonder ... Everyone we know is voting Trump except the loudest loudmouth partisans. It's Pennsylvania that's scary. My own snap polling says Trump wins PA by as much as they are insisting he will lose. It doesn't make sense that he's so far behind - only since COVID has this happened. But I also don't understand how Trump voters in PA are THAT SHY to produce those numbers. They aren't that shy. I see Trump stuff everywhere I go in PA except in Philly. Either I'm right and ALL that stuff is wrong or I'm completely out of touch with reality. It's a really weird feeling and kind of scary. In those Emerson numbers, it showed Biden leading among black voters 81 to 19. If Trump take 19% of blacks and the estimated 35% of Latinos from the same survey, it's going to be a galactic ass-kicking. |
| SugarSand
User ID: 9296373 United States10/27/2020 07:27 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | As an Aussie it doesn’t make sense one bit Biden becomes President. Its actually laughable that he is actually considered. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79493927 It makes sense because ... they wanted someone who can beat Trump. ONLY someone who could strip away "white working class" votes - think factory, construction, truck drivers ... On that big democrat debate stage ... it was Biden and maybe Yang. No rough and tumble 48 year old truck driver manly man who worked his whole life for everything he has was going to vote for Bernie, Warren, or any of the others if they wouldn't vote for Hillary ... so that's why Joe. It's not working, though. Yang would have been a better choice. Last Edited by SugarSand on 10/27/2020 07:28 AM When the shit hits the fan and the end is just nigh, will you cry out to Heaven? Will you lie down and die? Not me, my dear one - THIS IS MY SACRED LIFE - to no one nor no thing I'll surrender. For how does one know where when dead she will go, or if sweet Mother Earth he'll remember? - Sug |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77137727 United States10/27/2020 07:27 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | As an Aussie it doesn’t make sense one bit Biden becomes President. Its actually laughable that he is actually considered. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79493927 It really doesn't. Until you consider the irreparable harm that has been wrought by trump. From top to bottom, this once great Republic has been gutted. It is simply time for a change. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 79221027 United Kingdom10/27/2020 07:28 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Captain KC Jones
User ID: 73886838 United States10/27/2020 07:28 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The Hill's Morning Report Biden's polling lead over Trump looks more comfortable than Clinton's All of the factors that pollsters measure to analyze volatility among likely voters – the number of undecideds, those considering third party candidates, and leaners who could still change their minds – are down at this point in 2020 compared to in 2016, keeping the race at a steady level that favors Biden in the home stretch. Nearly 60 million people have already voted and the pool of undecided voters is dwindling. And while the polls have not fully digested last week’s debate, which seemed to be a net positive for Trump, it seems unlikely it will be a late game changer. “We just haven’t seen a lot of movement,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. “Every now and then you’ll see it jump around a bit, but that’s all in a normal range and due to differences in polling, rather than real movement. We’re measuring less volatility in the electorate than at this time four years ago, when we saw the gap between the candidates closing. That’s just not happening this time around.” [link to thehill.com (secure)] Last Edited by Captain KC Jones on 10/27/2020 07:30 AM |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 79221027 United Kingdom10/27/2020 07:29 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | As an Aussie it doesn’t make sense one bit Biden becomes President. Its actually laughable that he is actually considered. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79493927 It really doesn't. Until you consider the irreparable harm that has been wrought by trump. From top to bottom, this once great Republic has been gutted. It is simply time for a change. So what change will Biden bring. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77242923 United States10/27/2020 07:30 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| SugarSand
User ID: 9296373 United States10/27/2020 07:32 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | In those Emerson numbers, it showed Biden leading among black voters 81 to 19. Quoting: Zalinsky If Trump take 19% of blacks and the estimated 35% of Latinos from the same survey, it's going to be a galactic ass-kicking. It would be the most beautiful thing if it turned out that black men saved the country by voting red. When the shit hits the fan and the end is just nigh, will you cry out to Heaven? Will you lie down and die? Not me, my dear one - THIS IS MY SACRED LIFE - to no one nor no thing I'll surrender. For how does one know where when dead she will go, or if sweet Mother Earth he'll remember? - Sug |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77137727 United States10/27/2020 07:32 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | As an Aussie it doesn’t make sense one bit Biden becomes President. Its actually laughable that he is actually considered. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79493927 It really doesn't. Until you consider the irreparable harm that has been wrought by trump. From top to bottom, this once great Republic has been gutted. It is simply time for a change. So what change will Biden bring. Oh it will probably be worse than trump. The point is, most people have simply gotten fed up with trump and will vote for the other side. Doesnt matter if it is biden, harris, or a wet towel. It is so simple, maybe a glp'er can understand, lol. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77253753 United States10/27/2020 07:32 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | As an Aussie it doesn’t make sense one bit Biden becomes President. Its actually laughable that he is actually considered. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79493927 It really doesn't. Until you consider the irreparable harm that has been wrought by trump. From top to bottom, this once great Republic has been gutted. It is simply time for a change. No, It is not. It is time to finish the job of eradicating the liberal infestation from the American way of life. There can be no middle ground with terrorists. |
| Captain KC Jones
User ID: 73886838 United States10/27/2020 07:33 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Didn't you weirdos say Hunter Biden died and Joe Biden stopped his campaign? What happened? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79547392 Biden DID stop campaigning No, he didn't! Yesterday he was in suburban Philadelphia and today he's in Georgia. President OBAMA is in Fla tomorrow and Harris in Texas Friday. Biden's going to the mid West. |
