It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big | |
Terp
User ID: 77001005 United States 10/27/2020 10:30 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | If you live in a blue state with early voting, like I do ... (we are all mail voting - in person voting is all provisional) don't think early voting indicates a dem win people here are voting red as early as possible because we can track our votes, and we can make sure they are counted all in person votes in my state (NJ) are provisional this year, whereas the "real" ballots were ALL mailed ... so basically, people are doing what makes sense where they live here, that is getting theirs in early enough to count, but not too early to give the vote fixers a chance to calibrate That sounds similar to Oregon. My ballot is filled out and ready to go. We can mail it or go down to the court house and drop it in a ballot box - skip the middle-man (mailman). I'm in a red county though, so the ballot box will probably end up in the landfill. . |
Jake
User ID: 77849624 United States 10/27/2020 10:32 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | If those numbers posted by Ronna Romney are true and not gaslighting. and Republicans pick up 10% or better of the Democrat vote it will be a blow out for republicans Last Edited by Slowly awakening on 10/27/2020 10:32 AM Evil controls the ignorant... Climate change is a hoax so is the vax you have been fear-porned into compliance! Definition Satan from the bible: Satan (Rev 12:7) exercising his subtle (indirect) impact on heathen governments (powers) – i.e. accomplishing his hellish agenda from "behind the scenes." |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 75725579 United States 10/27/2020 10:33 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79365663 Canada 10/27/2020 10:34 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | As an Aussie it doesn’t make sense one bit Biden becomes President. Its actually laughable that he is actually considered. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79493927 It really doesn't. Until you consider the irreparable harm that has been wrought by trump. From top to bottom, this once great Republic has been gutted. It is simply time for a change. Low quality and ineffective shill. No $3.50, move along. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78347736 Hong Kong 10/27/2020 10:35 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 68572692 United States 10/27/2020 10:36 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I live in a Democratic town near Pittsburgh. There are Trump sings everywhere and only a few Biden signs. And remember, 65% of Trump supporters are scared to put out a Trump sign out of fear of retaliation by the crazy violent left. By the way, I got a call last week about who I was voting for and I told them Definitely Joe Biden. XD The Dems are in for a rude awakening next week. |
Wookiee
User ID: 62421844 United States 10/27/2020 10:36 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I don't know as single democrat who switched to voting for Trump. I do know many Republicans who are voting Democrat first time in their life. What people say and what they do are two different things. What they do in the booth is private. At exit polls I always tell them straight D when in-fact I always vote straight R. I also was in a union, so for tire-slashing insurance, I always pretended to be D. Warning: JustSomeGuy_42 is a publicly confessed unvaxxed neophiliac . If the number 666 is considered evil. then technically, 25.8069758 is the root of all evil. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 77880526 United States 10/27/2020 10:38 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Lady Jayne Smith
Forum Administrator 10/27/2020 10:39 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You do know that most Trump supporters can't vote because they are convicted felons. RVAT.ORG You have that backwards. Retard. Fate whispers to the warrior "You cannot withstand the storm" the warrior whispers back "I am the storm" INTJ-A |
Jake
User ID: 77849624 United States 10/27/2020 10:40 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 57% of Republicans in Florida will vote on Election day Get out and vote people, take your dog, have him vote. In FLORIDA, we matched 13,749 voters – 54.3% Women, 23.8% not Republican and 24.4% didn't vote in 2016. https://twitter.com/_/status/1321070401095667712 https://twitter.com/_/status/1315837380390277122 Last Edited by Slowly awakening on 10/27/2020 10:44 AM Evil controls the ignorant... Climate change is a hoax so is the vax you have been fear-porned into compliance! Definition Satan from the bible: Satan (Rev 12:7) exercising his subtle (indirect) impact on heathen governments (powers) – i.e. accomplishing his hellish agenda from "behind the scenes." |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78427454 United States 10/27/2020 10:42 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Lady Jayne Smith
Forum Administrator 10/27/2020 10:42 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I share one miniscule anecdotal data point: Quoting: TXP I invited my 83 year old father to go with me to vote early in person as a convenience to him. Nope. My father is voting a straight republican ticket, but he is waiting for election day despite the crowds and lines because he believes voting early gives more time for ballot fraud to occur and/or his ballot to be manipulated or discarded. As he expressed, he didn't fall for the DNC democrat fear mongering; they are just not to be trusted (I'm paraphrasing). He's an old school patriot and wants to vote in person on election day. I believe there are many who have this mindset. _ He will be fine in Texas, despite long lines. I voted early and stood in line in excess of an hour last week. Part of that was because every time an elderly person lined up, everyone graciously allowed them to pass to the front. In Texas, we still respect our elders. Fate whispers to the warrior "You cannot withstand the storm" the warrior whispers back "I am the storm" INTJ-A |
Oliver J. Pussmorton
User ID: 75000097 United States 10/27/2020 10:42 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Didn't you weirdos say Hunter Biden died and Joe Biden stopped his campaign? What happened? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79547392 Biden DID stop campaigning No, he didn't! Yesterday he was in suburban Philadelphia and today he's in Georgia. President OBAMA is in Fla tomorrow and Harris in Texas Friday. Biden's going to the mid West. All of those rallies combined ought to bring out maybe 200 Biden voters. I'll blast your ass with my cancer gun. Twice. |
slivervx
User ID: 79548175 United States 10/27/2020 10:45 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Come back next Wednesday for some humble pie, lol. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77137727 The turnout this year is what trump had in 2016. Except this time it is a ground swell of dims. Make no mistake, no one is voting for Biden. Everyone is voting against the buffoon. The pedo is going to get lots of votes 1,000 Post Club |
Jake
User ID: 77849624 United States 10/27/2020 10:47 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | https://twitter.com/_/status/1320827346790817794 Evil controls the ignorant... Climate change is a hoax so is the vax you have been fear-porned into compliance! Definition Satan from the bible: Satan (Rev 12:7) exercising his subtle (indirect) impact on heathen governments (powers) – i.e. accomplishing his hellish agenda from "behind the scenes." |
MrCoolone
User ID: 33106931 United States 10/27/2020 10:47 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Too many people are focused on the Candidate... Quoting: DuckNCover The Dems say orange man bad... The Reps say Biden is slow and not fit for President... People need to look at the platforms of both parties... Do you want Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness. or Do you want Socialism leading to Government Control turning us into Argentina... It's really that simple... yes but seriously.. do you thnk TrumP runs the show or the people behind him. The people behind him do not want to drain the swamp. Posted an hour ago Last Edited by MrCoolone on 10/27/2020 10:48 AM |
slivervx
User ID: 79548175 United States 10/27/2020 10:47 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Most family, friends and colleagues I know are voting Trump and I live in a democratic state... On a separate note - went to his rally on Sunday and it was amazing!!! I think there were about 10,000 people. We were so close to him - about 10 rows back! Quoting: Let Freedom Ring 365 I believe the biggest canary is the whole mask thing. everywhere i go and read people give off invisible energy about how stupid this whole mask thing is and how stupid it would be to vote in somebody like biden that will just continue this whole mental ill charade of mask wearing. 1,000 Post Club |
Tamaralori
User ID: 71008581 United States 10/27/2020 10:48 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Patagonians
User ID: 77511370 Argentina 10/27/2020 10:48 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
slivervx
User ID: 79548175 United States 10/27/2020 10:49 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I came to a very similar conclusion, but I'm really disturbed by the difference between my thinking and what the polls and media are saying. Quoting: SugarSand Could I be that wrong? Next week can't come fast enough. Went to the produce market yesterday in Southern New Jersey. Ended up in a random conversation with the owner and 2 old ladies who entered separately about whether or not Trump will win NEW JERSEY! He probably won't - we have a hell of a democrat machine to overcome ... but the fact that we were even discussing it was amazing. And no wonder ... Everyone we know is voting Trump except the loudest loudmouth partisans. It's Pennsylvania that's scary. My own snap polling says Trump wins PA by as much as they are insisting he will lose. It doesn't make sense that he's so far behind - only since COVID has this happened. But I also don't understand how Trump voters in PA are THAT SHY to produce those numbers. They aren't that shy. I see Trump stuff everywhere I go in PA except in Philly. Either I'm right and ALL that stuff is wrong or I'm completely out of touch with reality. It's a really weird feeling and kind of scary. I agree. I am disturbed by my logic of people wanting trump to win against how easy it is to stick a USB stick in or WIFI blast in a voting machine and swipe the votes for Biden or throw away the trump votes. 1,000 Post Club |
ErikV
User ID: 79546796 Sweden 10/27/2020 10:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | CNBC poll found 53% of Biden supporters have already voted, while only 25% of Trump supporters have voted. Quoting: Jake Dems have banked 26.4M early votes. Clinton got 65.8M votes. 53% of 65.8M is 34.9M votes. Democrats are 8.5M votes short of the mark. The GOP have banked 22M early votes. 25% of 65.8M is 16.5M votes. The Republicans are 5.5M votes ahead of the mark. Assume this CNBC poll is accurate, Biden is headed for brutal defeat. Get out and vote like your life depends on it, Because it does. Thanks for that Jake. ErikV |
Jake
User ID: 77849624 United States 10/27/2020 10:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | https://twitter.com/_/status/1320912406466408448 Evil controls the ignorant... Climate change is a hoax so is the vax you have been fear-porned into compliance! Definition Satan from the bible: Satan (Rev 12:7) exercising his subtle (indirect) impact on heathen governments (powers) – i.e. accomplishing his hellish agenda from "behind the scenes." |
SugarSand
User ID: 9296373 United States 10/27/2020 10:56 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | If you live in a blue state with early voting, like I do ... (we are all mail voting - in person voting is all provisional) don't think early voting indicates a dem win people here are voting red as early as possible because we can track our votes, and we can make sure they are counted all in person votes in my state (NJ) are provisional this year, whereas the "real" ballots were ALL mailed ... so basically, people are doing what makes sense where they live here, that is getting theirs in early enough to count, but not too early to give the vote fixers a chance to calibrate That sounds similar to Oregon. My ballot is filled out and ready to go. We can mail it or go down to the court house and drop it in a ballot box - skip the middle-man (mailman). I'm in a red county though, so the ballot box will probably end up in the landfill. . ALMOST EXACTLY! Except I expect that in BLUE counties the ballots go into a landfill! (It's like opposite.) When the shit hits the fan and the end is just nigh, will you cry out to Heaven? Will you lie down and die? Not me, my dear one - THIS IS MY SACRED LIFE - to no one nor no thing I'll surrender. For how does one know where when dead she will go, or if sweet Mother Earth he'll remember? - Sug |
Jake
User ID: 77849624 United States 10/27/2020 10:58 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | CNBC poll found 53% of Biden supporters have already voted, while only 25% of Trump supporters have voted. Quoting: Jake Dems have banked 26.4M early votes. Clinton got 65.8M votes. 53% of 65.8M is 34.9M votes. Democrats are 8.5M votes short of the mark. The GOP have banked 22M early votes. 25% of 65.8M is 16.5M votes. The Republicans are 5.5M votes ahead of the mark. Assume this CNBC poll is accurate, Biden is headed for brutal defeat. Get out and vote like your life depends on it, Because it does. Thanks for that Jake. For Trump to overcome the election fraud by the left an additional 1 million people need to come out and vote Republican over the 61 million in 2016 I think its possible as trump has widened his base and not narrowed it. However election day turnout is the key Last Edited by Slowly awakening on 10/27/2020 10:59 AM Evil controls the ignorant... Climate change is a hoax so is the vax you have been fear-porned into compliance! Definition Satan from the bible: Satan (Rev 12:7) exercising his subtle (indirect) impact on heathen governments (powers) – i.e. accomplishing his hellish agenda from "behind the scenes." |
Jake
User ID: 77849624 United States 10/27/2020 11:04 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Best video ever? https://twitter.com/_/status/1320539173317681153 Last Edited by Slowly awakening on 10/27/2020 11:05 AM Evil controls the ignorant... Climate change is a hoax so is the vax you have been fear-porned into compliance! Definition Satan from the bible: Satan (Rev 12:7) exercising his subtle (indirect) impact on heathen governments (powers) – i.e. accomplishing his hellish agenda from "behind the scenes." |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79470017 United States 10/27/2020 11:07 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This is not my original analysis. I am piggybacking on the efforts of this guy: Quoting: Zalinsky It's a good video that looks at existing voting patterns and ballots returned and tries to extrapolate them to see what kind of turn out Trump needs on election day to win. He also has made it Google Sheets model public, so for nerds like me, you can download it and play with the numbers yourself. He references very interesting data here: [link to targetearly.targetsmart.com (secure)] The guy shows Biden winning in every battleground state at the moment, usually with estimated leads of 3-4%. This is an oversimplification, but for Trump to win, he would need to win Election Day by about that much in reverse. What's interesting is when you combine it with data like the following two links, which show a huge difference between parties on who will vote on Election Day. In PA, this Emerson survey showed 81% of Trump voters will vote on Election Day, while only 36% plan of Biden voters plan to vote on Election Day. [link to www.wane.com (secure)] In FL, this Emerson survey showed 53% of Trump voters will vote on Election Day, while only 17% plan of Biden voters plan to vote on Election Day. [link to emersonpolling.reportablenews.com (secure)] Now, there are some huge assumptions here: Unaffiliated Voters will split 50/50 People will actually vote early/late as declared People will more or less vote their declared party The TargetSmart estimates are good But if those assumptions are sound, my numbers show the following: Turnout is huge. Trump is going to crush Biden. My FL numbers show a stupid blowout, greater than 55% to 45%. There is so much variability and so many assumptions, that it's not worth focusing on the exact numbers, but the fact is that Biden should have much bigger lead in Democratic submitted ballots than he has now if Election Day is really a dominant Trump day. I have similar results even in leaning blue states like NV and NH. Biden just doesn't have much of a lead there at the moment. If this is true, states like NM might even be in play. Yup, all the polling is very wrong. In a study in August, 62% of Americans are afraid to talk about their political views for fear of violent reprisal or harrassmsnt. That means that all polling numbers will show a massive lead by Harris-Pelosi since its the democrats sponsoring the riots and other violence. So if Trump is behind by 10% in the polls, it means that he could be as much as 40% ahead in actual votes. I hope Trump gets 400 electoral votes vs 138 votes for the Harris Pelosi ticket. |
MrCoolone
User ID: 33106931 United States 10/27/2020 11:10 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | According to Hunters emails, Zombies are only willing to do something if they can get 10-50% take. Last Edited by MrCoolone on 10/27/2020 11:11 AM |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 77635505 United States 10/27/2020 11:10 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The Hill's Morning Report Quoting: Captain KC Jones Biden's polling lead over Trump looks more comfortable than Clinton's All of the factors that pollsters measure to analyze volatility among likely voters – the number of undecideds, those considering third party candidates, and leaners who could still change their minds – are down at this point in 2020 compared to in 2016, keeping the race at a steady level that favors Biden in the home stretch. Nearly 60 million people have already voted and the pool of undecided voters is dwindling. And while the polls have not fully digested last week’s debate, which seemed to be a net positive for Trump, it seems unlikely it will be a late game changer. “We just haven’t seen a lot of movement,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. “Every now and then you’ll see it jump around a bit, but that’s all in a normal range and due to differences in polling, rather than real movement. We’re measuring less volatility in the electorate than at this time four years ago, when we saw the gap between the candidates closing. That’s just not happening this time around.” [link to thehill.com (secure)] Your post means nothing. Just because the ballots come back as democrat or republican doesn’t mean they voted for their party candidate. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79365535 Switzerland 10/27/2020 11:11 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
SeaLass34
User ID: 78607507 United States 10/27/2020 11:13 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Most family, friends and colleagues I know are voting Trump and I live in a democratic state... On a separate note - went to his rally on Sunday and it was amazing!!! I think there were about 10,000 people. We were so close to him - about 10 rows back! Quoting: Let Freedom Ring 365 I believe the biggest canary is the whole mask thing. everywhere i go and read people give off invisible energy about how stupid this whole mask thing is and how stupid it would be to vote in somebody like biden that will just continue this whole mental ill charade of mask wearing. AGREE this is working against dems and they’re too stupid to realize the weight it carries. I’m just outside of Seattle for F’s sake (so many libtards), and every time I go to the grocery store, restaurants, or anywhere, I hear people talking about how sick they are of these stupid masks. Biden and his dipshit posse saying they’re going to extend mandates to use them are turning a lot of people off. When the student is ready, the teacher appears. |