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It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big

 
Terp

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10/27/2020 10:30 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
Look for some states to go "Rona Red" and cut off election day in person voting.
 Quoting: Redcat1


If you live in a blue state with early voting, like I do ...

(we are all mail voting - in person voting is all provisional)

don't think early voting indicates a dem win

people here are voting red as early as possible because we can track our votes, and we can make sure they are counted

all in person votes in my state (NJ) are provisional this year, whereas the "real" ballots were ALL mailed ...

so basically, people are doing what makes sense where they live

here, that is

getting theirs in early enough to count, but not too early to give the vote fixers a chance to calibrate
 Quoting: SugarSand


That sounds similar to Oregon. My ballot is filled out and ready to go. We can mail it or go down to the court house and drop it in a ballot box - skip the middle-man (mailman).

I'm in a red county though, so the ballot box will probably end up in the landfill.


.
Jake

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10/27/2020 10:32 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
If those numbers posted by Ronna Romney are true and not gaslighting.

and Republicans pick up 10% or better of the Democrat vote

it will be a blow out for republicans

Last Edited by Slowly awakening on 10/27/2020 10:32 AM
Evil controls the ignorant... Climate change is a hoax so is the vax you have been fear-porned into compliance!

Definition Satan from the bible: Satan (Rev 12:7) exercising his subtle (indirect) impact on heathen governments (powers) – i.e. accomplishing his hellish agenda from "behind the scenes."
Anonymous Coward
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10/27/2020 10:33 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
The BLM riots in Philly right now will deliver PA and the election to Trump.
Anonymous Coward
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10/27/2020 10:34 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
As an Aussie it doesn’t make sense one bit Biden becomes President. Its actually laughable that he is actually considered.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79493927


It really doesn't.

Until you consider the irreparable harm that has been wrought by trump.

From top to bottom, this once great Republic has been gutted. It is simply time for a change.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77137727


Low quality and ineffective shill. No $3.50, move along.
Anonymous Coward
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10/27/2020 10:35 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
If those numbers posted by Ronna Romney are true and not gaslighting.

and Republicans pick up 10% or better of the Democrat vote

it will be a blow out for republicans
 Quoting: Jake


Fantasy land.

Republicans will lose the Senate and the Whitehouse due to incompetence.
Anonymous Coward
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10/27/2020 10:36 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
I live in Pa. There are 2 counties that can get Biden elected.

I live in a Democratic town near Pittsburgh. There are Trump sings everywhere and only a few Biden signs.

And remember, 65% of Trump supporters are scared to put out a Trump sign out of fear of retaliation by the crazy violent left.

By the way, I got a call last week about who I was voting for and I told them Definitely Joe Biden. XD

The Dems are in for a rude awakening next week.
Wookiee

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10/27/2020 10:36 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
bsflag

I don't know as single democrat who switched to voting for Trump. I do know many Republicans who are voting Democrat first time in their life.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25346721


What people say and what they do are two different things. What they do in the booth is private.

At exit polls I always tell them straight D when in-fact I always vote straight R.

I also was in a union, so for tire-slashing insurance, I always pretended to be D.
Warning: JustSomeGuy_42 is a publicly confessed unvaxxed neophiliac .

If the number 666 is considered evil.
then technically, 25.8069758 is the root
of all evil.
Anonymous Coward
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10/27/2020 10:38 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
Idiotic to think Biden is ahead in any state. lol.
Lady Jayne SmithModerator
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10/27/2020 10:39 AM

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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big

You do know that most Trump supporters can't vote because they are convicted felons.

RVAT.ORG




You have that backwards. Retard.
Fate whispers to the warrior

"You cannot withstand the storm"

the warrior whispers back

"I am the storm"

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Jake

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10/27/2020 10:40 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
57% of Republicans in Florida will vote on Election day

Get out and vote people, take your dog, have him vote.


In FLORIDA, we matched 13,749 voters – 54.3% Women, 23.8% not Republican and 24.4% didn't vote in 2016.







Last Edited by Slowly awakening on 10/27/2020 10:44 AM
Evil controls the ignorant... Climate change is a hoax so is the vax you have been fear-porned into compliance!

Definition Satan from the bible: Satan (Rev 12:7) exercising his subtle (indirect) impact on heathen governments (powers) – i.e. accomplishing his hellish agenda from "behind the scenes."
Anonymous Coward
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10/27/2020 10:42 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
Come back next Wednesday for some humble pie, lol.

The turnout this year is what trump had in 2016. Except this time it is a ground swell of dims.

Make no mistake, no one is voting for Biden. Everyone is voting against the buffoon.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77137727


clappa
Lady Jayne SmithModerator
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10/27/2020 10:42 AM

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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
I share one miniscule anecdotal data point:

I invited my 83 year old father to go with me to vote early in person as a convenience to him. Nope.

My father is voting a straight republican ticket, but he is waiting for election day despite the crowds and lines because he believes voting early gives more time for ballot fraud to occur and/or his ballot to be manipulated or discarded.

As he expressed, he didn't fall for the DNC democrat fear mongering; they are just not to be trusted (I'm paraphrasing).

He's an old school patriot and wants to vote in person on election day.

I believe there are many who have this mindset.
_
 Quoting: TXP


He will be fine in Texas, despite long lines.

I voted early and stood in line in excess of an hour last week. Part of that was because every time an elderly person lined up, everyone graciously allowed them to pass to the front.

In Texas, we still respect our elders.
Fate whispers to the warrior

"You cannot withstand the storm"

the warrior whispers back

"I am the storm"

INTJ-A

Killer Bunny
Oliver J. Pussmorton

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10/27/2020 10:42 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
Didn't you weirdos say Hunter Biden died and Joe Biden stopped his campaign? What happened?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79547392


Biden DID stop campaigning
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77242923




No, he didn't!

Yesterday he was in suburban Philadelphia and today he's in Georgia.

President OBAMA is in Fla tomorrow and Harris in Texas Friday. Biden's going to the mid West.
 Quoting: Captain KC Jones


All of those rallies combined ought to bring out maybe 200 Biden voters.
I'll blast your ass with my cancer gun. Twice.
slivervx

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10/27/2020 10:45 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
Come back next Wednesday for some humble pie, lol.

The turnout this year is what trump had in 2016. Except this time it is a ground swell of dims.

Make no mistake, no one is voting for Biden. Everyone is voting against the buffoon.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77137727


The pedo is going to get lots of votes
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Jake

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10/27/2020 10:47 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big

Evil controls the ignorant... Climate change is a hoax so is the vax you have been fear-porned into compliance!

Definition Satan from the bible: Satan (Rev 12:7) exercising his subtle (indirect) impact on heathen governments (powers) – i.e. accomplishing his hellish agenda from "behind the scenes."
MrCoolone

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10/27/2020 10:47 AM

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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
Too many people are focused on the Candidate...

The Dems say orange man bad...

The Reps say Biden is slow and not fit for President...

People need to look at the platforms of both parties...

Do you want Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness.

or

Do you want Socialism leading to Government Control turning us into Argentina...

It's really that simple...
 Quoting: DuckNCover


yes but seriously.. do you thnk TrumP runs the show or the people behind him.

The people behind him do not want to drain the swamp.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79546402

Posted an hour ago



Last Edited by MrCoolone on 10/27/2020 10:48 AM
slivervx

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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
Most family, friends and colleagues I know are voting Trump and I live in a democratic state... On a separate note - went to his rally on Sunday and it was amazing!!! I think there were about 10,000 people. We were so close to him - about 10 rows back!
 Quoting: Let Freedom Ring 365


I believe the biggest canary is the whole mask thing.

everywhere i go and read people give off invisible

energy about how stupid this whole mask thing is and how stupid it would be to vote in somebody like biden that will just continue this whole mental ill charade of mask wearing.
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Tamaralori

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10/27/2020 10:48 AM

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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
bump
Come quickly Lord Jesus. Maranatha
Patagonians

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10/27/2020 10:48 AM

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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78286655


I've always wondered what happened to that creature.
And when he gets to Heaven, to Saint Peter he will tell: "Just another soldier reporting, Sir. Ive served my time in Hell" 
slivervx

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10/27/2020 10:49 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
I came to a very similar conclusion, but I'm really disturbed by the difference between my thinking and what the polls and media are saying.

Could I be that wrong?

Next week can't come fast enough.



Went to the produce market yesterday in Southern New Jersey. Ended up in a random conversation with the owner and 2 old ladies who entered separately about whether or not Trump will win NEW JERSEY!

He probably won't - we have a hell of a democrat machine to overcome ... but the fact that we were even discussing it was amazing.

And no wonder ... Everyone we know is voting Trump except the loudest loudmouth partisans.

It's Pennsylvania that's scary.

My own snap polling says Trump wins PA by as much as they are insisting he will lose. It doesn't make sense that he's so far behind - only since COVID has this happened. But I also don't understand how Trump voters in PA are THAT SHY to produce those numbers. They aren't that shy. I see Trump stuff everywhere I go in PA except in Philly.

Either I'm right and ALL that stuff is wrong or I'm completely out of touch with reality. It's a really weird feeling and kind of scary.
 Quoting: SugarSand


I agree. I am disturbed by my logic of people wanting trump to win against how easy it is to stick a USB stick in or WIFI blast in a voting machine and swipe the votes for Biden or throw away the trump votes.
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ErikV

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10/27/2020 10:53 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
CNBC poll found 53% of Biden supporters have already voted, while only 25% of Trump supporters have voted.
Dems have banked 26.4M early votes. Clinton got 65.8M votes. 53% of 65.8M is 34.9M votes. Democrats are 8.5M votes short of the mark.



The GOP have banked 22M early votes. 25% of 65.8M is 16.5M votes. The Republicans are 5.5M votes ahead of the mark. Assume this CNBC poll is accurate, Biden is headed for brutal defeat.



Get out and vote like your life depends on it, Because it does.
 Quoting: Jake


Thanks for that Jake.
ErikV
Jake

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10/27/2020 10:53 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big

Evil controls the ignorant... Climate change is a hoax so is the vax you have been fear-porned into compliance!

Definition Satan from the bible: Satan (Rev 12:7) exercising his subtle (indirect) impact on heathen governments (powers) – i.e. accomplishing his hellish agenda from "behind the scenes."
SugarSand

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10/27/2020 10:56 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
Look for some states to go "Rona Red" and cut off election day in person voting.
 Quoting: Redcat1


If you live in a blue state with early voting, like I do ...

(we are all mail voting - in person voting is all provisional)

don't think early voting indicates a dem win

people here are voting red as early as possible because we can track our votes, and we can make sure they are counted

all in person votes in my state (NJ) are provisional this year, whereas the "real" ballots were ALL mailed ...

so basically, people are doing what makes sense where they live

here, that is

getting theirs in early enough to count, but not too early to give the vote fixers a chance to calibrate
 Quoting: SugarSand


That sounds similar to Oregon. My ballot is filled out and ready to go. We can mail it or go down to the court house and drop it in a ballot box - skip the middle-man (mailman).

I'm in a red county though, so the ballot box will probably end up in the landfill.


.
 Quoting: Terp


ALMOST EXACTLY!

Except I expect that in BLUE counties the ballots go into a landfill!

(It's like opposite.)
When the shit hits the fan and the end is just nigh, will you cry out to Heaven? Will you lie down and die? Not me, my dear one - THIS IS MY SACRED LIFE - to no one nor no thing I'll surrender. For how does one know where when dead she will go, or if sweet Mother Earth he'll remember? - Sug
Jake

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10/27/2020 10:58 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
CNBC poll found 53% of Biden supporters have already voted, while only 25% of Trump supporters have voted.
Dems have banked 26.4M early votes. Clinton got 65.8M votes. 53% of 65.8M is 34.9M votes. Democrats are 8.5M votes short of the mark.



The GOP have banked 22M early votes. 25% of 65.8M is 16.5M votes. The Republicans are 5.5M votes ahead of the mark. Assume this CNBC poll is accurate, Biden is headed for brutal defeat.



Get out and vote like your life depends on it, Because it does.
 Quoting: Jake


Thanks for that Jake.
 Quoting: ErikV


For Trump to overcome the election fraud by the left

an additional 1 million people need to come out and vote Republican over the 61 million in 2016

I think its possible as trump has widened his base and not narrowed it.

However election day turnout is the key

Last Edited by Slowly awakening on 10/27/2020 10:59 AM
Evil controls the ignorant... Climate change is a hoax so is the vax you have been fear-porned into compliance!

Definition Satan from the bible: Satan (Rev 12:7) exercising his subtle (indirect) impact on heathen governments (powers) – i.e. accomplishing his hellish agenda from "behind the scenes."
Jake

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10/27/2020 11:04 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
Best video ever?



Last Edited by Slowly awakening on 10/27/2020 11:05 AM
Evil controls the ignorant... Climate change is a hoax so is the vax you have been fear-porned into compliance!

Definition Satan from the bible: Satan (Rev 12:7) exercising his subtle (indirect) impact on heathen governments (powers) – i.e. accomplishing his hellish agenda from "behind the scenes."
Anonymous Coward
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10/27/2020 11:07 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
This is not my original analysis. I am piggybacking on the efforts of this guy:



It's a good video that looks at existing voting patterns and ballots returned and tries to extrapolate them to see what kind of turn out Trump needs on election day to win. He also has made it Google Sheets model public, so for nerds like me, you can download it and play with the numbers yourself.

He references very interesting data here:

[link to targetearly.targetsmart.com (secure)]

The guy shows Biden winning in every battleground state at the moment, usually with estimated leads of 3-4%. This is an oversimplification, but for Trump to win, he would need to win Election Day by about that much in reverse.

What's interesting is when you combine it with data like the following two links, which show a huge difference between parties on who will vote on Election Day.

In PA, this Emerson survey showed 81% of Trump voters will vote on Election Day, while only 36% plan of Biden voters plan to vote on Election Day.

[link to www.wane.com (secure)]

In FL, this Emerson survey showed 53% of Trump voters will vote on Election Day, while only 17% plan of Biden voters plan to vote on Election Day.

[link to emersonpolling.reportablenews.com (secure)]


Now, there are some huge assumptions here:
Unaffiliated Voters will split 50/50

People will actually vote early/late as declared

People will more or less vote their declared party

The TargetSmart estimates are good


But if those assumptions are sound, my numbers show the following:

Turnout is huge.

Trump is going to crush Biden.



My FL numbers show a stupid blowout, greater than 55% to 45%.
There is so much variability and so many assumptions, that it's not worth focusing on the exact numbers, but the fact is that Biden should have much bigger lead in Democratic submitted ballots than he has now if Election Day is really a dominant Trump day.

I have similar results even in leaning blue states like NV and NH. Biden just doesn't have much of a lead there at the moment.

If this is true, states like NM might even be in play.
 Quoting: Zalinsky


Yup, all the polling is very wrong. In a study in August, 62% of Americans are afraid to talk about their political views for fear of violent reprisal or harrassmsnt. That means that all polling numbers will show a massive lead by Harris-Pelosi since its the democrats sponsoring the riots and other violence. So if Trump is behind by 10% in the polls, it means that he could be as much as 40% ahead in actual votes. I hope Trump gets 400 electoral votes vs 138 votes for the Harris Pelosi ticket.
MrCoolone

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10/27/2020 11:10 AM

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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
 Quoting: Jake


According to Hunters emails, Zombies are only willing to do something if they can get 10-50% take.




Last Edited by MrCoolone on 10/27/2020 11:11 AM
Anonymous Coward
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10/27/2020 11:10 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
The Hill's Morning Report

Biden's polling lead over Trump looks more comfortable than Clinton's


All of the factors that pollsters measure to analyze volatility among likely voters – the number of undecideds, those considering third party candidates, and leaners who could still change their minds – are down at this point in 2020 compared to in 2016, keeping the race at a steady level that favors Biden in the home stretch.

Nearly 60 million people have already voted and the pool of undecided voters is dwindling. And while the polls have not fully digested last week’s debate, which seemed to be a net positive for Trump, it seems unlikely it will be a late game changer.

“We just haven’t seen a lot of movement,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. “Every now and then you’ll see it jump around a bit, but that’s all in a normal range and due to differences in polling, rather than real movement. We’re measuring less volatility in the electorate than at this time four years ago, when we saw the gap between the candidates closing. That’s just not happening this time around.”


[link to thehill.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Captain KC Jones


Your post means nothing. Just because the ballots come back as democrat or republican doesn’t mean they voted for their party candidate.
Anonymous Coward
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10/27/2020 11:11 AM
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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
Thread: YUGE, BREAKING Polls: Trump leads Biden nationally and in Pennsylvania
SeaLass34

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10/27/2020 11:13 AM

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Re: It's hard to believe my own numbers, but it looks to me like Trump is going to win big
Most family, friends and colleagues I know are voting Trump and I live in a democratic state... On a separate note - went to his rally on Sunday and it was amazing!!! I think there were about 10,000 people. We were so close to him - about 10 rows back!
 Quoting: Let Freedom Ring 365


I believe the biggest canary is the whole mask thing.

everywhere i go and read people give off invisible

energy about how stupid this whole mask thing is and how stupid it would be to vote in somebody like biden that will just continue this whole mental ill charade of mask wearing.
 Quoting: slivervx


AGREE this is working against dems and they’re too stupid to realize the weight it carries. I’m just outside of Seattle for F’s sake (so many libtards), and every time I go to the grocery store, restaurants, or anywhere, I hear people talking about how sick they are of these stupid masks. Biden and his dipshit posse saying they’re going to extend mandates to use them are turning a lot of people off.
When the student is ready, the teacher appears.





GLP