Scenerio 1

At the start it'll be optinal because there are many on the fence. Over the course of vaccination, the reports of side effects will be silenced. In fact, I believe Bill Gates said it would take 2 years to show the side effects. The side effects could cause shorter life span or sterilization, although no one really knows, it seems most likely.

So over the course of the 2021, many will be vaccinated by choice,however,the numbers continue to stay high. "Its all those anit-vaxxers fault! There stopping us from returning to our normal lives". Then, sometime in the 2nd half of 2021 it'll become more strict and eventually mandatory. First they will take away your right to fly and attend large gatherings (concerts, weddings, sports events), then it'll get to your bank accounts will be closed until you get your shot and lastly taken to the covid camps.

As for your jobs, that will depend on the employer to start, many small business that survive will be more lenient then say working at the Amazon warehouse. Once its mandatory they will have no choice.

I see 2021 mostly being optinal, don't see them rushing it in this scenario because the longer this thing goes,the more small business die and their major corporations prosper. Late 2021 or 2022 will be when it gets crazy.