What We Must Believe to Believe Biden Won

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Biden’s “victory” seems even more implausible after an audit of his performance in remarkably predictive bellwethers. The Wall Street Journal reports that Biden had a nearly perfect record of losses in counties whose election results have presaged presidential winners for decades: “From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation’s more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. Only one … backed President-elect Joe Biden last week.” So, a candidate who campaigned from his basement lost 95 percent of these counties yet won the election? What of the fabled bellwether Ohio? Last month, the New York Times advised that if Trump didn’t win there it was over:

Four years ago, Mr. Trump built a particularly balanced coalition among Ohio’s white voters, winning across education levels. But his support in the state has waned over the past four years, particularly in the suburbs … Columbus’s growth, and the expansion of suburbs and exurbs into what used to be rural and blue-collar areas, might have once spelled an opportunity for Republicans. But under Mr. Trump the Republican Party has lost its footing among specifically these kinds of voters — and the growth in Franklin County plays into Mr. Biden’s hands.