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Message Subject
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Scientists find ZERO asymptomatic or presymptomatic COVID spread...no shit
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Poster Handle
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NawtyBits |
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Post Content
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[ link to alachuachronicle.com (secure)] From the published article in JAMA "asymptomatic/presymptomatic secondary attack rate is not statistically different from zero" "Four researchers from the University of Florida Department of Biostatistics co-authored a study published online by the Journal of the American Medical Association" "The secondary attack rate for symptomatic index cases was 18.0% (95% CI 14.2%-22.1%), and the rate of asymptomatic and presymptomatic index cases was 0.7% (95% CI 0%-4.9%), “although there were few studies in the latter group.” The asymptomatic/presymptomatic secondary attack rate is not statistically different from zero, and the confidence interval is technically 0.7 ± 4.2, resulting in a range of -3.5%-4.9%, but attack rates cannot be negative, so it is truncated at 0." Let's dig a little deeper, shall we? From the DISCUSSION section of the paper: "We found significantly higher secondary attack rates from symptomatic index cases than asymptomatic or presymptomatic index cases, although less data were available on the latter. The lack of substantial transmission from observed asymptomatic index cases is notable. However, presymptomatic transmission does occur, with some studies reporting the timing of peak infectiousness at approximately the period of symptom onset." From the LIMITATIONS sectio: "Eighteen studies19-21,24,25,28,29,33,34,41,47,50,53,56,58,59,61,64 involved testing only symptomatic household contacts, which would miss asymptomatic or subclinical infections, although secondary attack rate estimates were similar across studies testing all vs only symptomatic contacts."
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