A few mins into the first video.....I have watched at least one of this guys videos...The one about the guy who put out a (false?) classified version (or was the classified version the real one?) I got lost a bit in that video on which one was the "real" one. But anyway...I was guessing that those who think it may happen sooner, were basing it on the idea that 2046 was IF the poles continued at their current speed.