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Message Subject
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Sars Cov 2 … the grinder continues to eat away at resources and humanity.
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Poster Handle
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JAZZz50 |
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we do have a little time left. high prices mean ppl buy less. things won't get used up as fast. off the top of my head. i don't have reports or site data to back this up.
HOW BAD IS THE SUPPLY CHAIN REALLY??
we know before covid, stores were saturated way oversupplied. stuff with the assembly lines was being made faster than it could b sold. look at the # of cars at the dealers compared to 40 yrs ago for instance. computer and automation era increased outputs. was it 2 thrown away for every 1 sold or 1 outa 4? i did this economically before. for every 1 that u buy 1 is tossed, 1 goes to welfare ppl, 1 is probably on a truck or wharehouse. but those others are added into the price. in other words the cost of overhead, lighting, workers, ingredients,etc is divided out to the # of items that would sell to an actual working person. so the welfare and govern workers share, the working class pays. 1 in 4 ppl actually do productive work. the rest are service workers, govern workers, or disabled and welfare ppl.
let's say 1/5 is tossed plus how much sits on shelves or is on trucks. we were overstocked by bout 3 times what was needed. the pandemic cut production by 50%- down to 1.5 what is needed. worker shortage minimum dropped another 10%- down to 1.35 times needed. CHINA offline and shipping held up cost another 50% of that- down under .75. total of CHINA includes the packaging shortages that slow up any other factories outputs. so we are now producing 75% of what the world needs. this before any disasters such as the Great BC flood or swine and bird flu outbreaks. add UKRAINE we are now producing half what the world needs.
supply- wharehouses and trucks were full in 2020. loaded up just as CHINA vacation and the pandemic started.we had 3 years worth of supply. the more we produce post-2020, the slower we use up that stock. if we produce 75%, we take the 25% from the wharehouses. the overstock of 3 yrs will last a few years. of this 3yrs worth of overstock. 1 was needed to get thru 2020 the year covid started. another 6mths covers the worker deaths and disasters. 1.5 yrs worth divided out by 25 for each year to cover the low production level; gives us 5 yrs. so we should have stock to 2026.
i know that is ruff math. as more are infected there will b less workers and the production output will drop farther. due to globalization u need ingredients or packaging from CHINA and other nations. hence not everything will run out at the same rate. cars that require more parts run out faster than cans of food. so admittedly the pace that we run out will get faster over the years.
at best we have 5 yrs of supply capability. at the rate of this slow burn doom, things get tougher by 2024. considering the pricing that has happened thus far, expect prices to double again over the next 2 yrs. plus with gas prices add another 50%. for every $1 now u will pay $2.50.
Quoting: JAZZz50
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