Bitcoin doom.Ethereum doom. XRP doom. Everywhere... DOOM! (Bear market begins 8/6/2021???)

https://imgur.com/a/nSDK1OH

As they say, "The Trend is Your Friend" ...

Another great bit of wisdom:


Last Edited by nemo_solus on 11/28/2021 10:42 AM

It’s officially a crap pants market

Bump still going down 2 months later.

Where is bottom? Now at 41-42K, lower.

40K?

37K?

Any ideas?

https://imgur.com/a/rkWwHPX

https://imgur.com/a/fgQnPwn

As always, anything can happen at anytime in Crypto as the future is always uncertain, but as an unprofessional amateur my target prices for BTC as it trends down are between where we are now and the VWAP from back in March 2020 (around $32k).

The Order book volume has a lot of support around $40k (as this is also the retrace area from September 2021 lows). There is some beginnings of volume showing up down to $30k as well as no major volume above, so it's something to consider too.

I just bought a bunch of crypto. I think we're bottoming right now.

I went with dogecoin at 14.77 cents with a stop at 14.65 cents.

I think there's a highly likely probability that the bottom could be in.

So yeah. I think it bottomed just now. Will know in a few days if it moves up from here. If it goes below 39.5k bitcoin i think the bullrun is over. As long as bitcoin stays above 39.5k i think it's perfectly fine.

If we DO go to new alltime highs...

Doge can run up to 2/4$ easily. It might even come up to 30$ if things get 1 million percent stupid. Not sure how high it can go quite yet.

Last Edited by Mr. Cheese on 01/08/2022 05:37 PM

Dogecoin eh. Hahahahahahahahaha

Howdy Mr. Cheese - good to see you again!

https://imgur.com/a/IL8jwv1

Here's why I think bitcoin over 39.5k is perfectly fine. If it goes below I think it's 100% over.

Staying above 39.5k is 100% bullmarket going on still.

If it goes below 39.5k it's going to shit the bed really hard.

Any particular reason for Doge?

Along with many others, I'm expecting that as folks exit BTC and ETH they are going to cycle into the Alts next, so from that point of view I can see Doge, but there is lots of other similarly good Alts out there too.

You can't predict Tether printing.

Nice! Can't disagree with that.

Here's something I was noodling on the other day:

https://imgur.com/a/FfST5EB

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/08/2022 05:53 PM

Go ahead and laugh at dogecoin.


.786 retrace of the daily candlecloses for the last 2 years below.

https://imgur.com/a/SknGdZS

Bullish gartley over the last month, and we JUST hit the 786 of the bullish gartley 2 hours ago. The 786 of the bullish gartley is exactly at the 786 of the daily candle close structure.

https://imgur.com/a/RkBNAKg

Bullish divergences like a motherfucker on daily chart, 3 day, weekly, 4 hour charts. Literally all of them. Daily RSI at 30. 4 hour RSI at 30.

Doge is going to surprise you. If the bullmarket actually continues? Dogecoin is going to shit on everything.

I do think it's possible it does something like this still but now I think if this does happen that the head will be a rising wedge with 3 touches. I'm going to be on high alert for the rising wedge possibility if it goes up from here.

Hey nero. I still think we're likely about to have covid capitulation #2. After reassessing everything, I think bitcoin is going to do a 382 retrace up from 40k up to 51.5k around january 21st-january 31st. Right now i'm projecting our covid lockdown on valentine's day. February 12th 2022.

https://imgur.com/a/MUUNNbn

The two yellow arrows are the most important trendline that there is in all of crypto right now. The white arrow is when that "yellow arrow trendline" will reach a 382 retrace of the current structure.

I think it's very possible that we come up to 51.5k by end of january. If we are making daily hidden bearish divergence on macd and/or the RSI... and i mean IF...

Then we have our covid lockdown capitulation crash very near valentine's day. I don't think we have to keep going up over 51.5k. I think that whales make things look similar to the 28k area in order to sucker in buyers. I think it's very possible that this is a sucker's rally.

We will know more in a few weeks as the divergences develop.

I am bullish for the next few weeks. In a few weeks... I suspect I will be screaming from the mountain tops that the crash of all crashes is coming.

If we go below 39.5k all bets are off. You guys have no idea how far down this can crash if it wants to. We really could come down to 3/4k bitcoin. That's where I'll close my short (if i enter it. I only suspect i will enter a 51.5k short end of january right now).

____

thinking doge only runs up to 24 cents now, it's 15.22 cents as I type this.

Yup, it is an entirely plausible scenario to have a brief run up for the big guys to unload onto retail, all too typical.

Oddly enough, I'd be happy to see things keep going down as I've been short the past few days, doing well but pulling out some profit each leg down. Anticipating putting some of that cash into some things long, but haven't decided on the specific ones yet. I am partial to XRP as it's been so undervalued due to the SEC case. If it gets resolved even semi-favorably and relisted, it should do well. Probably the answer is just about any Alt will do well enough to trade the trend up though. I'll have to take another look at Doge too - thanks for the charts!

The correlation of Crypto to the traditional markets is also a factor, for sure. Although with much respect for your idea of another Covid lockdown, I can't see how that would be tenable as most people I expect just won't go for that again. Not to say I disagree with the possibility of a major market crash though, we know it's going to happen, it's just a question of when.

Between major supply chain issues still to come our way, we have the Fed monkeying around with rates and certainly a battle over the continuing resolution that expires Feb. 18th. On top of that (and regardless of what side you fall on this issue) there has been and continues to be a loss of a not insignificant number of people who are just walking away from their jobs due to the various mandates and general insanity. From best I can tell, the number depends on the industry and specific company, but generally this number of people ranges from 15-30% (sometimes higher, sometimes lower, for sure). You don't loose that many people without a major impact.

So, I guess that's some of my Fundamental analysis of the situation.

I just believe with every fiber of my being that they will either lock us down for 2022 elections or lock us down for 2024 elections. Or maybe both.

The lockdowns serve multiple purposes. It's not just for "covid." It's not just for financial meltdowns. It's also for political reasons; mail in voting, encouraging vaccinations. Honestly i think they find it fun.

I also won't back down that I feel we will have a 90%+ stock market crash in the next ten years and that is when bitcoin drops 99% in value. I might be jumping the gun on when it happens but I know it will. The monthly/2 month/3 month chart of the S&P and dow jones look like a burning dumpster filled with horse manure. They will have a major crash unlike any we have experienced in our lifetimes and it will happen within ten years. Guaranteed.

2022 will be the year of Chainlink.

Updating my doge idea for you Nemo.

Doge 2017

https://imgur.com/VjnJxX8

Doge 2021/2022

https://imgur.com/a/pTsl9Xj

In 2017 doge did a "break, hook, and go" and shot up to nearly a 382 retrace.

In 2022 doge has already done the break. It has already done the hook. It is resting on the daily candleclose trendline right now just waiting to "go." Obviously it can go up or down but it's a really good explanation that it will go up.

Dont forget the other two ideas i said it would go up, 786 retrace of the macro structure. And making a bullish gartley over the last month. And all the crazy amounts of bullish divergences on macd/rsi/stochastic on 4hr/daily/3day/weekly charts.

Anywho, my new doge target is 30-34 cents. I'll be really happy to sell at 34 cents after buying 15 cents.

i think im gonna dump my shib and buy doge

You seem to know how to read charts Mr. Cheese? Take the emotion out of it.

shib is in the same break hook and go pattern as doge right now. they are like exactly the same. might as well just stick with shib for the next few weeks.

Shib is currently worth 2800. I could see it going to 4600 area. So I see shib going up 70%.

I do believe the bull market is over so I will be closing my position and entering a short in some crypto as soon as this happens. I don't recommend you hold anything beyond the next month.

Consider buying crypto to hold around december of 2022. Not sure where it'll all be by then but that's when things have a chance of bottoming. We have another brutal wave down to come for every coin.

Haven't seen any clear signs yet that the full BTC bottom is in. While the $40k band of volume may have been broken, there is still a large amount of interest below and nothing (yet) forming above. It's entirely possible the bottom is in, but from the perspective of what the order book shows, it's unclear the trend is reversing.

https://imgur.com/a/3lVUcsY

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/10/2022 09:00 PM

I am back to thinking it's going to be a march capitulation. I've been tinkering with bitcoin and comparing it to the pre-covid capitulation and I do think this is it.

https://imgur.com/jDImPtx

The white arrow trendline is important. The yellow arrow trendline is important. The white one is the real support (temporary). The yellow one is the real resistance.

Overlaying the march 2020 capitulation fractal over the current price structure, it says bitcoin will be:

47k on january 22nd-ish
43k bottom by end of january
51k during february 4th-12th
29k by february 21st
Capitulation in the first week or two of march (just like the march 2020 covid crash).

I am targeting 11,500-11,800$ right now. Below is why I think 11,500$ area in march 2022 could be the bottom.

https://imgur.com/a/l9s6QdL

I used both fibonacci styles.

-I used the logarithmic scale and put the top of the bracket (the white arrows at the 1) at the top of the pre march 2020 covid crash.

-I put the middle of the bracket (the yellow arrows at the .5) at the bottom of the market right before the covid crash.

-the bottom of the bracket projected exactly the bottom of the march 2020 covid crash (blue arrows).

_______
_______

I used regular Fibonacci and the 1.618 fib extension(blue arrow on the left) was at the same spot as the logarithmic bracket. So a major fib extension at the same spot as the logarithmic extension in the march 2020 covid crash.

________
________

I applied both methodologies to the current market structure and noticed where targets were located.

The logarithmic extension projects to 11,500-11,800$.
The regular Fibonacci extension has the 1.414 at 11,500-11,800$.
So the logarithmic extension is the same as the 1.414 fib extension. This is a big deal.
The regular Fibonacci extension has the 1.618 at 3300$(This is what scares me). This it the bottom right blue arrow way down by itself.

Something of note is that 11.5k is also weekly support looking down. 11.5k is a very important price point and we don't want to go lower in my opinion.

_________
_________

I think that if the crash happens... and I highly suspect it does... that it falls to either 11,500-11,800$... or it falls to 3300$. I lean towards 11.5k area.

If 11.5k holds? We go on to a new massive bull market in 2 years.

If it falls to 3300$? We are in a 12 year head and shoulders pattern and bitcoin will fall to 170$ eventually.

__________
__________

I would like to add I strongly think 11.5k holds at the moment and I am hopeful for a stupidly high bull market in 2023/2024.

If we see 3300? It will probably come up to 20k in a few years before rejecting down to 170$ in the next 4 year bear market cycle.

ponzi scheme .. the only way to make money in crypto is by screwing over someone else

https://imgur.com/a/nmKfcmk

Here's how I know that a monster crash is coming.

The bold white trendline is the major trendline that led to the major crash where the bold white arrow was 4 years ago.

The 3 multi colored lines near each other are the daily close/weekly close/monthly close trendlines. We are creeping on going below those 3 trendlines. We are creeping. Closer. And closer. And closer. The yellow arrow on the right is where we are right now. As soon as we're below all 3 of those lines bitcoin crashes in the dirt like a fucking ufo crash.

And I suspect at the moment, that this happens in march 2022. I suspect either 11.5k or 3300 will be the bottom. I lean towards 11.5k. I hope it holds. I pray it holds.

This is true.

But it's the same in the stock market. It's the same with gold. It's the same with any asset that is not fiat currency.

Fiat is done. Digital/Crypto will rise. Which Ones??? They can't pay their accumulated fiat debt!!!

I hope that during the end of march that you are still posting in my thread. Somehow I feel you'll disappear.

But yes fiat sucks.

Hey Nemo. Thinking at the moment we're going to drop to only 15/18k. What are your thoughts about that area?

Also, thinking this drop might happen in the next week or two.

Thinking this could be a macro falling wedge... leading into a macro broadening wedge. With the bull market ending in december of 2022 around 77/80k or so.

Anyways. I closed my position. 15/18k seems like it might be coming and it seems like it could happen really soon.

I'm hoping to see it bounce around in the 15/18k to 35k area from january-may.

I really thought macro rising wedge before... but thinking macro macro BROADENING wedge.

Leaning towards stock market meltdown in december/january of 2022 now. I think this coming crash is going to be only crypto.

The BIG crash will be everything.

Last Edited by Mr. Cheese on 01/13/2022 03:28 AM