Bitcoin doom.Ethereum doom. XRP doom. Everywhere... DOOM! (Bear market begins 8/6/2021???)

Forgot to log in ...

Also, take a look at SAND, FTM and others in the gaming/Metaverse arena, many have similar patterns.

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Last Edited by Mr. Cheese on 01/20/2022 06:18 PM

back to thinking doom happens in a few days again :/

Looks like a Wednesday bottom right now if things keep progressing downward at the rate they are. Will see what happens, eh?

If this crash does happen...

I wonder what they will blame the crash on? They always blame everything on other things. It's how they work.

Hoping we only crash to 8500 next week (if this crash really happens).

I see it as a very strong possibility.

Anyways, need to see how the reaction at 18-24 looks like and the exact dollar the first crash goes to (if it actually does).

Expecting this first crash to finish this weekend. Expecting 2nd one to start Sunday at 7pm (weekly close).

Last Edited by Mr. Cheese on 01/20/2022 06:41 PM

It's a bit of a moot point at the moment, but sorry for the confusion. Yes, GALAX3L is a 3x levered token for GALA.

You're correct about FTM specifically, I'm sorry I wasn't totally clear on that. What I was attempting to say is that the gaming/Metaverse sector is a segment I'm looking at for this next alt season, and among many (but not all) projects the charts have a similar look as GALA does (at the bottom of a long consolidation from the prior pump). FTM is a little different, but still part of the sector.

I've been favoring the 3L/3S tokens to trade lately, but you do really have to watch as they get out of control really easy and the liquidity isn't always the best. I'm a fan of using bots to mind the trades, so fortunately today wasn't a bad day and the trailing stops kicked in while still in profit.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/20/2022 09:53 PM

Had been thinking things were looking good too, but it's possible it's going to be the more pessimistic path.

https://imgur.com/a/aijBd08

We're back to the September 2021 lows - we'll have to see what way it's going to break.

https://imgur.com/a/GdgKUNt

You can see how we've now cleared out the volume at the ~$40k levels, but I'm not sure we're done yet. There's still some volume to pick up down to $30k and at the moment not much happening overhead on the other side of the book.

Was fortunate to see the order book sliding this afternoon and did a quick buy short on ETH, so the move down has been good to me, but still have the bots set and waiting to sell if things turn around. If they keep going down, will still be doing well too.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/20/2022 10:13 PM

I still am strongly considering 14-15k as the bottom for my falling wedge theory. Remember the last mega crash down to 30k? It fell to 30k on the dot the first crash and then went up 40/50% in like a day.

It makes sense that a second mega crash would find support at 15k. 15k is half of 30k. It's a nice round number. It is also the falling wedge area that I was showing in a previous post. I'm going to close my btc short in the 16k area and just hodl a smaller chunk of capital for a few days hoping for a pop back up to 35k... before the 5 month long bottoming pattern that I theorized about before.

Yeah I guess it could come down to a lot of prices... but I still am mostly considering 15k (this drop) and then the ultimate bottom in the 13/14k area some time in the next 5 months. I don't think i'll be longing btc until at the earliest May/June. If this falling wedge actually happens... it's a long from 14/15k up to 80k. So yeah... I want to get in that.

I think i've found the moving average that will be the support, too. It's a moving average we've never used as support before. You know how the weekly 200 simple moving average is a big deal? Well... I think the weekly 400 simple moving average will be the bottom. The 400 is coming up strongly and it will be around 14/15k some time around may/june... which is exactly when that falling wedge fractal I had played around with showed an estimated time for bottoming.

I'm starting to lean towards the great depression starting in March 2023 now. I am starting to think this particular crash is just a little hiccup... granted... a negative 80% in price, hiccup...

Last Edited by Mr. Cheese on 01/21/2022 01:57 PM

Nemo were posting bullish monthly rsi and macd right now on btc. I'm not calling 35k the bottom at all...

But monthly divergences are serious business.

I closed my btc short with good profits and I'm just gonna watch for a few days. I think it's highly possible this is the bottom area but I'm not calling it highly likely just yet.

Way too much can happen.

If this is the bottom it would be touch 4 on a rising wedge. I still think we make new all time highs before the final dump...

It's just... what shape do we make to get there?

Hey Cheese - well, you know I'm a fan of both price/time TA methods, but I also like to use Volume tools to see what's happening too. I don't think we can trade in the longer term right now, just go with what the market is doing in the moment.

I'm thinking a good stake in the ground right now is the $32-$30k levels:

https://imgur.com/a/ZRfm8Mq

https://imgur.com/a/r8Td3kX

There will be resistance from the Covid crash VWAP around $32k and that's also the lower end of the volume currently on the order book.

The order book is also continuing to show volume under the price and virtually nothing above. Today we took out the $38k level, next is the $35k level to see what happens.

Still short ETH.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/21/2022 08:13 PM

I agree that downside is probably coming next. The monthly is showing hidden bullish... but the daily looks like an absolute freight train dumpster fire is about to happen. The daily looks about as bad as you can possibly make it look right now.

I'm going to wait for some hidden bearish divergences to develop and re-enter a short on either eth or btc here in the next day or two. I really do think that 35k is the capitulation line. I don't think we have capitulated yet... it's just been the slow bleed dropping stuff. The real crash is violent down AND up. This was not violent at all. And we didn't go up at all from 35k. Just... floating there...

Anyways, 35k was the monthly 21 simple moving average. Falling below that is why i think 35k is the capitulation line. We haven't fallen below this line yet this entire bull market dating back from the covid crash.

Going to be some serious volatility for the next 5 months if we do fall to 15k and if it does in fact hold as support. I mean absolute clown world volatility up and down over and over and over. I'm super excited for it honestly.

https://imgur.com/a/3mUOAdD

I really think this chart could be it if we do go lower. This is extremely basic Fibonacci stuff.

-The white arrows at the top are at the 1
-The yellow arrows are at the .5
-The blue arrows are at the .618
-The red/brown?(i'm color blind. i cant tell) This red/brown arrow accurately called the 30k bottom last time. Like exactly.

This is the predominant reason I think 15k holds. The falling wedge theory is just a bonus. That downsloping line on the chart is the bottom of the falling wedge made via the weekly candle closes.

Should be a fun week or two, man. I'm going to buy 15k and hope it shoots up to the .382 real quick like it did at 30k. If this happens? It drops to 15k and pops up to 35k. Then crashes back down to 15k again.

So you see... based on the left and right side... I think the two blue arrows are the same. If they ARE the same... then i'm right about 35k being the capitulation line. Which again would make sense, it's the monthly 21 simple moving average.

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I'm hoping to see some 4 hour hidden bearish divergences pop up in the next day or two. Expecting crypto to come up like 5-10% or so before the crash really ramps up.

At the moment it's 36,400. I'm hoping to short 39k bitcoin. That's the next sweetspot short(as long as hidden divergences are happening).

Last Edited by Mr. Cheese on 01/21/2022 09:53 PM

33,400$ is the 886 retrace. People buying 33,400 are hoping that the potential bullish bat is the play at the moment. So I can see that price being the bottom. My only problem with buying anything below 35k is this.

https://imgur.com/a/lZR00Va

This should look terrifying because it is terrifying. That's the monthly 21 simple moving average I spoke about being the capitulation line. If we go below that line it is 100% shitstorm. 18-20k at an absolute minimum; the next monthly support line downward.

wow. thanks for giving us a heads up.

Looks Red to me...

I'm not terrified (from a trading perspective) of it actually, if there isn't any volatility, it's much more difficult to trade - I really don't like when the market moves sideways, that's when I usually walk away.

What terrifies me about markets gone bad is what sort of crazy stuff it often causes people to do - like start wars.

Thanks for getting me to think about ethereum nemo, been tunnel visioning BTC lately.

https://imgur.com/a/CH8NmhG

Look at this. Compare the top of the 2022 bull market for ethereum to 2017. It's on the monthly chart.

This chart basically says that the bottom is nearly in for ethereum if it follows 2017. Says that the monthly close is basically when you want to close your short (if the daily starts looking good).

I'm going to consider throwing in a long for ethereum around the monthly close because I can see ethereum running up to alltime highs again and even making new ATH first week or two of march before crashing.

I do think ethereum ends up at 500$ by the end of the bear market and this chart projects the bear market ending in september/october of 2022 with ethereum at 500$.

I was predicting ethereum at 500$ a few months back and I did it with entirely different methods... so it's kind of funny that just copy pasting the 2017 fractal on top of current price puts ethereum at exactly 500$ in september/october.

Anyways... I think i'm chilling out on doom for the time being. I think i'm about to put my bull-tard hat on one last time (in the first week of february) and see how that goes. If it does run up to 5200/5300 I will short that to 500$. I'll hold that short from march to october.

Maybe on 311 or 322???

OH SNAP...

They broke out the charts!!!

After looking at the ethereum chart I have changed my thoughts. I think february will be bullish as F for all crypto. I think that basically 3/11 will be the TOP of the market. The tippy top for all cryptos.

I think the bear market ends near sept/oct 2022 and Ethereum near 500$.

I think buying ethereum at 500$ is the best price prediction I have right now so I'm officially an eth-fanboy until another chart looks better.

Forgive my ignorance, but what keeps all of the cryptos from going to zero and disappearing ?

They won't go to zero because degenerate gamblers like us will always buy it.

They might crash 99.9%.

But they'll always rebound. Again, because of degenerate gamblers like us.

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Bitcoin and ethereum are the two most trustworthy cryptos. The rest? Honestly it's just gambling. They might do way better than bitcoin or ethereum... but bitcoin and ethereum are reliable. The rest... just aren't. The rest are hopes and dreams.

As long as people believe it has value, it will have value.

At the most fundamental level, trading is all about understanding peoples emotions and perceptions. All this TA and charting is really just a method of examining the trends and state of those emotions and then using that information to guide a decision that allows you to act earlier than the majority and to your benefit.

As nothing lasts forever, at some point all cryptos will indeed go to zero and disappear.

Not sure if that is the question you were asking, but hopefully this has been useful to you.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/22/2022 05:22 PM

LoL - degenerate ... I like it.

Sure, glad it was helpful!

Actually, I don't usually trade in BTC unless I see a really good setup.

The reason I focus so much on studying BTC is that it is a "leading indicator" for the other cryptos. Sure, there are the pumps and dumps and viral memes that run independent of what BTC does, but for better or worse, BTC moves the market trends. There is a brief delay between BTC price action and the rest that can sometimes be advantageous.

One of the reasons I went into the ETH3S was the pattern - ETH has been extremely bullish for so long that the short position was exceptionally suppressed - sub penny level not that long ago:

https://imgur.com/a/0c0b28n

https://imgur.com/a/SxdFOjw

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/22/2022 06:09 PM

Really?

You think ETH will be 5K? What will BTC be for this to happen, 60K?

Hidden bearish divergences again on the 4hour on pretty much all coins at the same time just now. I just put another short in. I'm not sure if we'll make new lows or just make a deep 786/886 retrace...

Let's see how low it goes. The daily looks like hot garbage still on pretty much everything. If coins go below the low they set a few days ago it will be very ugly. That low was the capitulation line.

I want to believe the monthly close will be the bottom. We have 8 days to find the bottom.

At the moment... I think at the end of the month btc and eth bottom... I think both make alltime highs basically on 3/11. Expecting btc around 70/75k as the FINAL top.

There is massive hidden bullish divergence for both coins on the monthly. I believe it will play out.

I'm expecting a 90% off sale for all crypto by October/November 2022. I do believe eth will be 500$ end of 2022.

Can someone please post a step by step on how to short a crypto?

Buying is easy.
Selling is easy.
Shorting, not so much.

There are only a few websites you can do it on in the united states legally. You might want to do some google searching. The united states politicians make it mostly illegal for you to do it... they say it is "to keep you safe."

By now, "to keep you safe" is pretty obvious lingo for "we are fucking the citizens."

Anyways. There are ways to get around this(other websites you can use) but you have to do something special to be able to do it... which you can figure out if you do some googling. I shouldn't say much more than that here.

I'd also say that longing and shorting are unbelievably dangerous. You have to know the exact moment to enter a position, which if you aren't a self professing master at identifying tops and bottoms and support/resistance levels... I hate to say it but you will spend a few years paying for your eduction. Which truly is the only way to learn... just understand you are going to lose for a long time until you get good at it. It really is like paying for a degree from school... except this is actually useful eventually.

Last piece of advice. If you ever do long or short anything, use a stop-loss/stop-gain. Entering a position without a stop is a path to suicide.

To give you an idea... I probably have a 30% success rate on trades. Which means 7 out of 10 I fail. Those 7 out of 10 I take a 1-2% loss. The 3 out of 10 that I am successful on, I end up making 100-1000% profit. This is how I am successful long term while only being right 3 out of 10 times. Stop losses are how I don't go bankrupt.

I stand by my statement that crypto is either 90% or 100% bottomed. February will be bullish as F. The entire bullrun ends 2nd week of march. Still think bitcoin hits 70/75k and ethereum hits 5200/5300 2nd week of march.

Crypto is showing signs of beginning to bottom by posting some bullish divergences on the 4 hour. Just need some bullish divergences to finally appear on the daily for this to turn around and go up. It's not going to start until after February 1st.

March 10th 2020 is the end of crypto until the next major 4 year bull cycle begins.

https://imgur.com/a/8RsCDK2

https://imgur.com/a/skjmL5O

It could be we are getting close to the bottom, we have gotten into the territory of support from the long term VWAP.

From the order books perspective, it looks like there is still quite a bit of volume down in the ~$30k region that still needs to be cleared out before a reversal would happen.

That spike up today was interesting - I suspect some sort of market intervention. It wouldn't take much to move price in either direction as of late and I note there are no persistent bands of volume to the upside as there typically is when we are trending up, so I don't think this is a solid sign of reversal.

I'm still short ETH, but keeping a closer eye on the need to exit and go long.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 01/24/2022 09:05 PM