Invest 91L (MINDY) Now In GOM - High Flood Threat Increasing for Gulf States - Major Hurricane Predicted in GOM on Long Range Models

An area of low pressure is producing some disorganized shower
activity over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development
of this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves
westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph toward Central
America. Thereafter, land interaction with Central America and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico will likely limit further development of
this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible
across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula late
this week and this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Not expecting much until this does make it to the western GOM if it even makes there. Still not much model support as most are completely dissipating this over Central America. However if it does manage to make it to the western Gulf of Mexico conditions currently look great for fast development. Point is we're probably 3-4 days from any development but if we get development in western gulf we could have less than 72 hours before a hurricane impacts areas already impacted by Ida.

An area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized shower
activity over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development
of this system remains possible over the next couple of days if it
remains over open water while moving west-northwestward or
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph near the coast of Central America.
Thereafter, the system will have another opportunity for gradual
development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
development, heavy rains are possible across portions of Central
America and the Yucatan Peninsula later this week into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Quick tell Jim Cantore to run down south for another exquisite live coverage

He's like the Chris Cuomo of the weather channel isn't he? Wish they'd replace him with something like what Stephanie Abrams was years ago.

Recon is schedule to fly into this tomorrow so I wouldn't be surprised if they up the chances of development later today.

Also the TWO said gradual development is possible in western gulf but from the obs I'm looking at if similar conditions are in the western gulf when it makes it there I think rapid development is likely. Also will have the opportunity for even warmer waters than what Ida had.

We now have Recon going out to look into Invest 91L tomorrow. Honestly from this ASCAT pass it is a super sharp wave axis. It looks better under the hood then I though. It will be interesting to see what they find tomorrow.
[link to twitter.com (secure)]

Model support is increasing as ICON and GFS starting to hint at development.

Models continue to hint at something in the Western Gulf with a chance to develop next week. Likely coming from #Invest91L.. Something to keep a eye on...
[link to twitter.com (secure)]

https://twitter.com/_/status/1433157437394235395

Latest GFS model:

https://imgur.com/Mc4CwPz

GFS now showing this system taking its time and hitting Houston as a moderate tropical storm 9 days from now

https://imgur.com/oDnlXDg

Just noticed the landfall date for GFS Houston is 9/11.

EURO showing a small weak storm forming right off the coast of Southeast Texas (Houston/Galveston Area) and slowly moving inland.

https://imgur.com/CM5xSSJ

More and more models are catching on and increasing odds of TS development.

https://imgur.com/zk7Mlkd

https://imgur.com/w7P9UNl

Latest model tracks shows some consensus of models lingering & slowly moving right off the upper Texas coast. Not sure I've seen the very latest GFS yet but the last one I did see had 91L being picked up by the trough and moved quickly across Louisiana.

A slow moving weak tropical storm off the coast of southeast Texas or Louisiana could cause a significant flooding event possibly in the areas already impacted by Ida. Some of the levees south west of New Orleans have had to be cut open to allow water drainage which could become a problem.

This is increasingly becoming something to keep a close eye on and I'm afraid by Sunday we might be looking at tropical threat to the upper gulf coast by mid week.

12z #GFS ensembles show increased support for #invest91L. 06z had about 5 members showing #91L. The 12z run has around 15-20 showing up. Pretty big increase. If you live on the #gulf coast, you should monitor this system. Timing looks to be around mid-late next week. #tropics #wx

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

This is a complicated system with ensembles showing different possibilities of various scenarios for 91L to develop and cause a variety of impacts. Most notable is the weak steering currents expected to be in place the later part of the week creating a slow moving tropical storm causing a massive flood threat to the northern gulf coast. Most worrisome is the areas already impacted by Ida in Louisiana.

https://imgur.com/KCaPjCq

https://imgur.com/TP79Fja

GFS showing a major hurricane hitting Texas coast on the 16th is not 91L but a system that forms behind it in Western Caribbean.

https://imgur.com/UreZlkz

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]

Increasing odds that 91L will become Mindy in the next few days as its the next thing to development on global models. The more bullish of the forecasting models would signal this could be considered a depression late tomorrow and upgraded to Tropical storm as early as Monday.

https://twitter.com/_/status/1434322127050711054