Uh, That's Not A Conspiracy Theory -- Vax Deaths by LOT NUMBER prove there is a HUGE PROBLEM | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79228559 United States 11/04/2021 10:37 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I have a PhD in Statistics and the results presented are very concerning, obviously. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79228559 One of the things statisticians do is remove all possible alternative explanations before reaching a conclusion. Although these data look bad, there is one possibility that needs to be considered: Is VAERS reporting rate constant across time? Is VAERS reporting rate constant for deaths vs. other reactions? And is that difference constant across time? If the answer to some of these questions is NO, we have a confound. If VAERS reporting rate was higher for a span of months, we are going to see more reactions, including deaths and non-deaths. If a vaccine lot number was in circulation during one of these higher-reporting spans, then it will BY DEFINITION have a higher death and incidence rate, simply because VAERS reporting is done more often. Here’s a concrete example to explain, but keep in mind I’m not saying this exact situation is true. Suppose that VAERS system was functionally normally when the vaccine was released. Within days, VAERS gets buried in reports of bad reactions. Because this makes the pharma companies look bad, the VAERS system is “changed”, so that is harder to submit a complaint (speculation, but has been stated by some). Also consider that the very process of submitting VAERS complaints (it takes 30 minutes?) may mean that actual VAERS death/incidence counts on record are UNDERESTIMATES, and this underestimation itself varies by the number of COVID cases / vaccine cases present. TLDR: The notion that one vaccine Lot# caused more deaths than another is very concerning. As in immediate market halt concerning. BUT… as I stated above, there are several other reasons that certain lot #s may have more/less cases, because: ease of VAERS reporting changed over time… so proportion of actual VAERS reports varies over time.. and because lot numbers simply reflect different supply windows, LOT#, by definition, will correlate with VAERS death reports. The events were consistent over time. But even if they weren't, it still couldn't explain such huge differences between the lots. However, if the lots were not of the same size and some lots were as much as 20 times the size of other lots, then this data would be easy to explain. The only thing that matters is adverse reactions per jabs distributed, the total number doesn't tell the whole story. It would be like trying to compare the wealth of an average person from Switzerland to one from India by comparing the total GDP of thw two countries. Obviously you would get a wildly skewed result. The website doesn’t cite rates of death by lot#, but COUNTS of death. That alone tells you how simple his analysis is. Count data over time is meaningless in health. Rate data is. VAERS data is NOT consistent over time. That isn’t a controversial statement in the literature. WHAT is causing the inconsistency is a different issue, and that may be what you are getting at in your comment. Just look at the medical informatics literature 2019-2021 for plenty of VAERS related bias, and how to correct them in some cases. My point isn’t to refute market-ticker. If the result holds up, it is a major finding that should halt an entire market segment. But there’s a reason that won’t happen because some guy counted deaths by lot in Excel. Because alone, it is useless data. I’m sure plenty of sharp folks on both sides of the argument are already hacking away behind the scenes. |
oniongrass
User ID: 80835184 United States 11/04/2021 10:44 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I have a PhD in Statistics and the results presented are very concerning, obviously. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79228559 One of the things statisticians do is remove all possible alternative explanations before reaching a conclusion. Although these data look bad, there is one possibility that needs to be considered: Is VAERS reporting rate constant across time? Is VAERS reporting rate constant for deaths vs. other reactions? And is that difference constant across time? If the answer to some of these questions is NO, we have a confound. If VAERS reporting rate was higher for a span of months, we are going to see more reactions, including deaths and non-deaths. If a vaccine lot number was in circulation during one of these higher-reporting spans, then it will BY DEFINITION have a higher death and incidence rate, simply because VAERS reporting is done more often. Here’s a concrete example to explain, but keep in mind I’m not saying this exact situation is true. Suppose that VAERS system was functionally normally when the vaccine was released. Within days, VAERS gets buried in reports of bad reactions. Because this makes the pharma companies look bad, the VAERS system is “changed”, so that is harder to submit a complaint (speculation, but has been stated by some). Also consider that the very process of submitting VAERS complaints (it takes 30 minutes?) may mean that actual VAERS death/incidence counts on record are UNDERESTIMATES, and this underestimation itself varies by the number of COVID cases / vaccine cases present. TLDR: The notion that one vaccine Lot# caused more deaths than another is very concerning. As in immediate market halt concerning. BUT… as I stated above, there are several other reasons that certain lot #s may have more/less cases, because: ease of VAERS reporting changed over time… so proportion of actual VAERS reports varies over time.. and because lot numbers simply reflect different supply windows, LOT#, by definition, will correlate with VAERS death reports. The events were consistent over time. But even if they weren't, it still couldn't explain such huge differences between the lots. However, if the lots were not of the same size and some lots were as much as 20 times the size of other lots, then this data would be easy to explain. The only thing that matters is adverse reactions per jabs distributed, the total number doesn't tell the whole story. It would be like trying to compare the wealth of an average person from Switzerland to one from India by comparing the total GDP of thw two countries. Obviously you would get a wildly skewed result. The website doesn’t cite rates of death by lot#, but COUNTS of death. That alone tells you how simple his analysis is. Count data over time is meaningless in health. Rate data is. VAERS data is NOT consistent over time. That isn’t a controversial statement in the literature. WHAT is causing the inconsistency is a different issue, and that may be what you are getting at in your comment. Just look at the medical informatics literature 2019-2021 for plenty of VAERS related bias, and how to correct them in some cases. My point isn’t to refute market-ticker. If the result holds up, it is a major finding that should halt an entire market segment. But there’s a reason that won’t happen because some guy counted deaths by lot in Excel. Because alone, it is useless data. I’m sure plenty of sharp folks on both sides of the argument are already hacking away behind the scenes. Yes the result is consistent with some areas that never report to VAERS, some that occasionally report to VAERS, and a very few that are somewhat consistent in reporting to VAERS. That will give a very wide dispersion in reporting rates, while everything is probably underreported. And that's exactly the impression I had from what I'd heard about how VAERS is used (as in, hardly ever used). Medical professionals are advised that they're not to report to VAERS; there's a recent video from a NP who was doing reports from other doctors' cases and she was told not to report, and otherwise suppressed. Last Edited by oniongrass on 11/04/2021 10:47 AM . DON'T VAX, PROPHYLAX! ____________ There is no anger in Me: If one offers Me thorns and thistles, I will march to battle against him, And set all of them on fire. But if he holds fast to My refuge, He makes Me his friend; He makes Me his friend. (Isaiah 27:4-5) |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 81086200 United States 11/04/2021 10:57 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Karl over at Market Ticker has really dug into the VAERS data to analyze the following claim: Quoting: nemo_solus There is a wildly statistically-significant skew in the death rate from Covid-19 vaccines by lot number. Quoting: Karl DenningerHe was expecting to debunk it (he has a passionate hatred of tinfoil hats) but instead found that across all three of the vaccine producers they showed a similar abnormal grouping of deaths by lot number. Much less than 50% quoted, this is the TLDR summary: The only thing all three of these vaccines have in common is that all three of them rely on the human body to produce the spike protein that is then attacked by the immune system and produces antibodies; none of them directly introduce the offending substance into the body. The mechanism of induction is different between the J&J and Pfizer/Moderna formulations but all exhibit the same problem. The differential shown in the data is wildly beyond reasonable explanation related to the cohort dosed and the reported person's average age for the full set of events (not just deaths) does not correlate with elevated risk in a given lot either so it is clearly not related to the age of the person jabbed (e.g. "certain lots all went to nursing homes since they were first.") While the highest AE rate lots all have early use dates so do some of the low-AE rate lots so the attempt to explain the data away as "but the highest risk got it first" fails as well. Quoting: Karl DenningerIn other words the best-fit hypothesis is that causing the body to produce part of a pathogen when that part has pathological capacity (as we know is the case for the spike) cannot be controlled adequately through commercial manufacturing process at-scale. This means that no vector-based, irrespective of how (e.g. viral vector or mRNA), not-directly-infused coronavirus jab will ever have an acceptable safety profile because some lots will be "hot" and harm crazy percentages of those they're given to with no way to know in advance. The basic premise used here -- to have the body produce the agent the immune system identifies rather than directly introduce it where you can control the quantity, is a failure. The entire premise of calling something that does this a "vaccine" is bogus and in the context of a coronavirus this may never be able to be done safely. Read the full article here: [link to market-ticker.org (secure)] MRNA Vaxx is garbage science because you cant control how much vaxx will be produced by the host after it is introduced. Some overproduce and some underproduce. Am I getting this right? It is unknown at this point exactly what is the root cause of the failure and what exactly this failure does differently in folks to either kill or injure them vs. those that aren't. It's possible that those that don't immediately show injuries or die in proximity to the vaccine have still been harmed. That it is happening across three independent manufacturers and three different implementations is enough to confirm that the drugs are not as well understood as we have been assured they are. The proper thing to do is to immediately halt the administration of these drugs until a thorough investigation has been made and an understanding achieved. This is the reason you need long term tests, not just to study the drug in use but to also perfect the methods and safety of manufacture. The root cause is that the ‘vaccine’ cannot address idiosyncrasies. No medicine can. For example, I have severe allergies and a depressed immune system I am not allergic to anything in particular. My body decides on a daily basis what it will react to that day. I cannot take medication except for a few choice ones to avoid anaphylaxis. Doctors refuse to treat me. They do not like things that are not average. And yet, my family physician who knows full well what happens to me told me to take a few antihistamines and to go get the vaccine. Vaccines will eventually be known as the greatest crime against humanity. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 80946404 United States 11/04/2021 11:51 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I wonder if lots are sent to certain locations, such as one lot go to various CVS stores while another goes to the health department. The could lend credence to the theory that some people administering the shots are not properly trained. Like, the health department are probably RNs while CVS or the grocery store are just some pharma tech. They don't aspirate and they just stick it in the arm. If they get a vessel, that person will have issues. Quoting: GA Girl This lot got distrod at the disneyland site |
nemo_solus
(OP) User ID: 77952366 Bulgaria 11/04/2021 12:54 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
oniongrass
User ID: 80835184 United States 11/04/2021 12:59 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I wonder if lots are sent to certain locations, such as one lot go to various CVS stores while another goes to the health department. The could lend credence to the theory that some people administering the shots are not properly trained. Like, the health department are probably RNs while CVS or the grocery store are just some pharma tech. They don't aspirate and they just stick it in the arm. If they get a vessel, that person will have issues. Quoting: GA Girl This lot got distrod at the disneyland site What Disneyland site distro? Or destroyed? . DON'T VAX, PROPHYLAX! ____________ There is no anger in Me: If one offers Me thorns and thistles, I will march to battle against him, And set all of them on fire. But if he holds fast to My refuge, He makes Me his friend; He makes Me his friend. (Isaiah 27:4-5) |
nemo_solus
(OP) User ID: 77952366 Bulgaria 11/04/2021 01:18 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I have a PhD in Statistics and the results presented are very concerning, obviously. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79228559 One of the things statisticians do is remove all possible alternative explanations before reaching a conclusion. Although these data look bad, there is one possibility that needs to be considered: Is VAERS reporting rate constant across time? Is VAERS reporting rate constant for deaths vs. other reactions? And is that difference constant across time? If the answer to some of these questions is NO, we have a confound. If VAERS reporting rate was higher for a span of months, we are going to see more reactions, including deaths and non-deaths. If a vaccine lot number was in circulation during one of these higher-reporting spans, then it will BY DEFINITION have a higher death and incidence rate, simply because VAERS reporting is done more often. Here’s a concrete example to explain, but keep in mind I’m not saying this exact situation is true. Suppose that VAERS system was functionally normally when the vaccine was released. Within days, VAERS gets buried in reports of bad reactions. Because this makes the pharma companies look bad, the VAERS system is “changed”, so that is harder to submit a complaint (speculation, but has been stated by some). Also consider that the very process of submitting VAERS complaints (it takes 30 minutes?) may mean that actual VAERS death/incidence counts on record are UNDERESTIMATES, and this underestimation itself varies by the number of COVID cases / vaccine cases present. TLDR: The notion that one vaccine Lot# caused more deaths than another is very concerning. As in immediate market halt concerning. BUT… as I stated above, there are several other reasons that certain lot #s may have more/less cases, because: ease of VAERS reporting changed over time… so proportion of actual VAERS reports varies over time.. and because lot numbers simply reflect different supply windows, LOT#, by definition, will correlate with VAERS death reports. The events were consistent over time. But even if they weren't, it still couldn't explain such huge differences between the lots. However, if the lots were not of the same size and some lots were as much as 20 times the size of other lots, then this data would be easy to explain. The only thing that matters is adverse reactions per jabs distributed, the total number doesn't tell the whole story. It would be like trying to compare the wealth of an average person from Switzerland to one from India by comparing the total GDP of thw two countries. Obviously you would get a wildly skewed result. The website doesn’t cite rates of death by lot#, but COUNTS of death. That alone tells you how simple his analysis is. Count data over time is meaningless in health. Rate data is. VAERS data is NOT consistent over time. That isn’t a controversial statement in the literature. WHAT is causing the inconsistency is a different issue, and that may be what you are getting at in your comment. Just look at the medical informatics literature 2019-2021 for plenty of VAERS related bias, and how to correct them in some cases. My point isn’t to refute market-ticker. If the result holds up, it is a major finding that should halt an entire market segment. But there’s a reason that won’t happen because some guy counted deaths by lot in Excel. Because alone, it is useless data. I’m sure plenty of sharp folks on both sides of the argument are already hacking away behind the scenes. Thank you all for the well thought out commentary and reasoning, it is good to have multiple opinions when considering what the data may be indicating. My take-away from this is that VAERS is doing what it was intended to do: be an early warning that something is possibly going wrong. What I would like to hear is something from all those very sharp folks working away behind the scenes, presumably with much higher quality and detailed data sources. At a minimum, the proper and prudent response to this kind of signal should be to halt all vaccinations until the signal is understood. |
Interested_1
User ID: 72534537 United States 11/04/2021 01:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79528177 Canada 11/04/2021 01:33 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 81087009 11/04/2021 01:39 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I wonder if lots are sent to certain locations, such as one lot go to various CVS stores while another goes to the health department. The could lend credence to the theory that some people administering the shots are not properly trained. Like, the health department are probably RNs while CVS or the grocery store are just some pharma tech. They don't aspirate and they just stick it in the arm. If they get a vessel, that person will have issues. Quoting: GA Girl What kind would they give to sexual crime prisoners in February of this year, Moderna? |
XJDUB
User ID: 6014161 Canada 11/04/2021 03:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Pole Cat
User ID: 43739020 United States 11/04/2021 08:14 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Red Hot Chilean Pepe
User ID: 79780291 Chile 11/06/2021 04:34 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I have been reading the comments on that forum’s thread and some of them ate really interesting, I thank OP again for bringing this to our attention. This article is pure gold. All great truths begin as Blasphemies. G.B.S. GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79785752 12/19/2021 10:27 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
KuvaszLove
User ID: 80359215 United States 12/19/2021 11:19 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
KuvaszLove
User ID: 80359215 United States 12/19/2021 11:19 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
KuvaszLove
User ID: 80359215 United States 12/19/2021 11:19 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 80110278 United States 12/19/2021 11:29 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |