interesting article...

[link to theconversation.com (secure)]

How monkeypox epidemic is likely to play out – in four graphs

The four scenarios below are based on the following knowledge: the average number of people an infected person is likely to infect (assuming they have not been vaccinated against the virus or have had the disease before) is 2.13. This is called the basic reproduction number, or R. Herd immunity – the point at which enough people have immunity such that disease transmission can’t be sustained – is 53% (corresponding to this value of R). And the incubation period, the time from catching the virus to the appearance of symptoms, is between five and 21 days.

Scenario 1: Self-limiting outbreak

Scenario 2: All population

Scenario 3: Becoming endemic

Scenario 4: Recurrent large epidemics

https://imgur.com/87VMMmj