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Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard

 
StellaBlue
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06/09/2022 10:33 PM
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Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
Lumber dealers have experienced a seesaw of emotions over the past couple of years.

During the pandemic, supply chain issues and a rise in home projects caused lumber prices to skyrocket.

But a shifting macroeconomic environment has left many dealers stumped, per WSJ, with lumber futures dropping 52% since early March.

[link to www.theapopkavoice.com (secure)]

Less than 50%
It is better to trust in the Lord than to put confidence in man.
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StellaBlue  (OP)
In the end there's just a song

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06/10/2022 09:47 AM
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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
Supply chain bump
It is better to trust in the Lord than to put confidence in man.
Psalm 118:8

No weapon that is formed against thee shall prosper
Isaiah 54:17

"I have certain rules I live by. My first rule: I don’t believe anything the government tells me.”
– George Carlin

God bless the music makers
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2022 09:58 AM
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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
Supply chain bump
 Quoting: StellaBlue


Demand slump
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2022 10:01 AM
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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
You may get lucky and get some lumber for less than you've been paying, but high lumber prices are here to stay. Every step of the process, from felling to delivery involves gasoline or diesel.

Big box stores have been selling fir for right around $1.50 a board foot and that rarely reflects any changes in the commodities market.
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2022 10:30 AM
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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
Lowes in my area sells 2x4 x10 @$10 / taxed/, placed online order .Come to pick up and was presented basically mill scraps , more hole knots than teenager face , bowy plain junk .
When they shut down country they let chosen ones make killing on sales , set any price they want
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2022 10:30 AM
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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
I've been resorting to re-ripping old lumber rather than buying new for major projects. It killed me to have to buy a bunch of shit OSB just to finish. That and the fuel to drive my truck far enough to pick it up.

It's too hot to want to work in the sun anymore. Maybe I should just buy stuff when the price craters and wait for fall.
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2022 10:32 AM
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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
its over... It was all covid stimulus money

Now reality strikes, Ive been in Home Depot and lowes at least 10 times in the last 2 weeks


they are always empty
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2022 10:34 AM
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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
I'm still looking for the ten dolla OSB and two dolla 2x4's.
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2022 10:36 AM
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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
i work construction all building supplies are still sky high in michigan im at the lumber yards and lowes menards home depot constantly everything is sky high or out of stock still
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2022 10:37 AM
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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
Lowes in my area sells 2x4 x10 @$10 / taxed/, placed online order .Come to pick up and was presented basically mill scraps , more hole knots than teenager face , bowy plain junk .
When they shut down country they let chosen ones make killing on sales , set any price they want
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 82911518


If you buy lumber regularly, consider getting to know a local sawmill operator. We can't stay in business selling junk like box stores. My prices are cheaper and I don't charge sales or lumber taxes. If you need graded lumber, you can hire a grader or even stamp it yourself (different rules apply in different jurisdictions, but generally most counties have a list of graders they accept). We also don't usually source our logs from these commercial farming operations but rather from naturally grown logs that got removed as part of utility trimming, for example. My fir has much tighter grain than anything you can buy at home depot.
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2022 10:42 AM
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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
Demand is dropping off a cliff around here (western PA). Homes that were finished a month ago are still sitting with nobody to buy them, not even BlackCock. Just wait until mortgage rates hit 8%. With the "offical" inflation rate hitting 8.6% that means the real inflation rate is pushing 24-26% that means 8% on a 30 year is guaranteed even with 830 credit score and zero debt!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 82609303


demand here just fucking completely stopped

in 2 weeks like the lights fucking went out

property prices dropped 25%

its the interest rate shock

you cannot sell a property anymore to anyone

who will loan out 500k with interest rates spiking
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2022 10:43 AM
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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
Demand is dropping off a cliff around here (western PA). Homes that were finished a month ago are still sitting with nobody to buy them, not even BlackCock. Just wait until mortgage rates hit 8%. With the "offical" inflation rate hitting 8.6% that means the real inflation rate is pushing 24-26% that means 8% on a 30 year is guaranteed even with 830 credit score and zero debt!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 82609303


demand here just fucking completely stopped

in 2 weeks like the lights fucking went out

property prices dropped 25%

its the interest rate shock

you cannot sell a property anymore to anyone

who will loan out 500k with interest rates spiking
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 82667312


Which state are you in??
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2022 10:44 AM
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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
time to buy that fixer upper or plot o land
Fair Acres

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06/10/2022 10:46 AM

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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
Prices are still out of control on lumber. Even though prices are low on the spot, inflation, duties and transportation costs have held them high.
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2022 10:46 AM
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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
TIMMMMBEERRRRR
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06/10/2022 10:55 AM

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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
Lowes in my area sells 2x4 x10 @$10 / taxed/, placed online order .Come to pick up and was presented basically mill scraps , more hole knots than teenager face , bowy plain junk .
When they shut down country they let chosen ones make killing on sales , set any price they want
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 82911518


If you buy lumber regularly, consider getting to know a local sawmill operator. We can't stay in business selling junk like box stores. My prices are cheaper and I don't charge sales or lumber taxes. If you need graded lumber, you can hire a grader or even stamp it yourself (different rules apply in different jurisdictions, but generally most counties have a list of graders they accept). We also don't usually source our logs from these commercial farming operations but rather from naturally grown logs that got removed as part of utility trimming, for example. My fir has much tighter grain than anything you can buy at home depot.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 82504804


^^^^^^This, this, this^^^^^^

I always seek out the local sawmills. Some are purely commercial and won’t do private sales, some are very flexible and have everything you could think of. I got some ash and cherry for less than what people were paying for 2x4’s at Home Depot. The market is crazy!

Also, if you travel you can get good prices on regional species. Driving through Texas I picked up some slabs (no kidding) of mesquite, in SC some pecan, Oregon some walnut…
Smoke me a kipper, I’ll be back for breakfast.
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2022 11:03 AM
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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
Good, I want to build a fence around my yard by next year to keep the unwashed hordes out of my survival garden. Lumber is making it very expensive right now.
Florida Man
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06/10/2022 11:06 AM

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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
#metoo
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"If one way be better than another, you may be sure it is nature's way." - Aristotle
FeedYourHead

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06/10/2022 11:06 AM

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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
Lumber dealers have experienced a seesaw of emotions over the past couple of years.

During the pandemic, supply chain issues and a rise in home projects caused lumber prices to skyrocket.

But a shifting macroeconomic environment has left many dealers stumped, per WSJ, with lumber futures dropping 52% since early March.

[link to www.theapopkavoice.com (secure)]

Less than 50%
 Quoting: StellaBlue


People are struggling just to buy essentials...no time for luxury items like lumber....
Ask Alice when she's 10ft tall
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2022 11:09 AM
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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
Demand is dropping off a cliff around here (western PA). Homes that were finished a month ago are still sitting with nobody to buy them, not even BlackCock. Just wait until mortgage rates hit 8%. With the "offical" inflation rate hitting 8.6% that means the real inflation rate is pushing 24-26% that means 8% on a 30 year is guaranteed even with 830 credit score and zero debt!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 82609303


Fk all these builders who destroyed the countryside with their sht boxes. Good. I hope those sht boxes rot and I hope those builders starve. We know they won't tho. They built all this crap with credit. Time to kill these people.
Awake 11:11

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06/10/2022 11:13 AM

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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
Supply chain bump
 Quoting: StellaBlue


Demand slump
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6176722


Maybe but maybe not. I pass by a very high end homes subdivision on my way to work every day and there are 4 new constructions going on right now in various stages of completion. The slump is for poor people. Rich people don't really care how much lumber costs.
Rabbit Hole: A complexly bizarre or difficult state or situation conceived of as a hole into which one falls or descends.
M R E

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06/10/2022 11:24 AM

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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
time to buy that fixer upper or plot o land
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78152436


not yet, nowhere near the bottom yet, if you have the cash
just hold it and wait for the big ass fire sale that is
coming but it's still probably a year or more away!
would rather have it & not need it then need it & not have it
Big Daddy D
Chaotic Constitutionalist

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06/10/2022 11:25 AM

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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
That's good news for me. Now I can at least afford lumber since I can't afford anything else.
The Juan Mower

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06/10/2022 11:33 AM

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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
Having a friend with a saw mill and endless trees pays off big time.
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2022 11:34 AM
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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
Lowes in my area sells 2x4 x10 @$10 / taxed/, placed online order .Come to pick up and was presented basically mill scraps , more hole knots than teenager face , bowy plain junk .
When they shut down country they let chosen ones make killing on sales , set any price they want
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 82911518


That's what I've been doing too.. I got lucky and salvaged 4 4x12x10 garage door headers, they all got milled into 2x4s for backing and blocking.
George Jefferson
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06/10/2022 11:35 AM
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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
You knew I would!

M R E

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06/10/2022 11:38 AM

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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
Having a friend with a saw mill and endless trees pays off big time.
 Quoting: The Juan Mower


yes it is but the loggers i know are getting killed with
diesel prices atm!
would rather have it & not need it then need it & not have it
Wookiee
It doesn't matter

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06/10/2022 11:41 AM

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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
meh

up 500%

down 50%

still up 250% from 2019


For yanks that can't follow %.


Item was $100 in 2019

Peaked at $500 in 2021

Now it's at $250

All #s are approximate.

Last Edited by JustSomeGuy_42 on 06/10/2022 11:44 AM
Warning: JustSomeGuy_42 is a publicly confessed neophiliac.

S/he who enforces the rules doesn't have to follow the rules. (As recently demonstrated.)

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StellaBlue  (OP)
In the end there's just a song

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06/10/2022 11:44 AM
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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
I wood like to express my thanks for the pine!
tounge


I need my deck repaired from storm damage last winter... finding lumber is not a problem, but finding LABOR is. I've tried contacting half a dozen contractors, including the Amish... nobody is even returning calls. (Yes the Amish are listed on Google believe it or not)

Our insurance, who is supposed to be doing this, has basically thrown up their hands and told us good luck, find your own contractor!
It is better to trust in the Lord than to put confidence in man.
Psalm 118:8

No weapon that is formed against thee shall prosper
Isaiah 54:17

"I have certain rules I live by. My first rule: I don’t believe anything the government tells me.”
– George Carlin

God bless the music makers
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2022 11:44 AM
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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
Just wait till the housing market crashes 40 to 60%
¤ Sizzling Pot ¤

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06/10/2022 11:51 AM

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Re: Timber! Lumber prices are falling hard
Still $12.83 for a 2x4x10 @ my local box store. Not doing any projects anytime soon but good try "Apopka Voice"





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