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MSM: A Middle East NATO? A missile defense network with Israel? Major shifts brewing in region

 
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07/10/2022 02:23 PM

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MSM: A Middle East NATO? A missile defense network with Israel? Major shifts brewing in region
The growing perception of Iran’s aggression in the Middle East, along with Washington’s desire to reduce Russian and Chinese influence in the oil-rich Gulf Arab states, has prompted intense bouts of diplomacy in recent months that could lead to major tectonic shits in the political and military landscape.

Many reports have surfaced in past weeks regarding significant developments in play that will likely come together during President Joe Biden’s expected visit to the region next month, according to analysts who spoke with Breaking Defense.

The idea of a new defense alignment was underlined Friday when Jordan’s King Abdullah II said he would support the creation of a Middle East alliance similar to NATO, telling CNBC “I would be one of the first people that would endorse a Middle East NATO.” However, he noted, “The mission statement has to be very, very clear. Otherwise, it confuses everybody.”

More broadly, Abdullah said, there is a growing sense in the region that nations facing similar threats need to work together.



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07/10/2022 02:24 PM

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Re: MSM: A Middle East NATO? A missile defense network with Israel? Major shifts brewing in region
Bipartisan legislation introduced in Congress today would require the Pentagon to present a strategy for integrating the air defense capabilities of Israel and Arab states in order to counter ballistic missile and other projectile threats from Iran and its proxies.

The bill, led in the Senate by Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), mandates a report on the Pentagon’s plans be presented to lawmakers no later than 180 days after its passage.

Why it Matters: US Central Command has sought to support efforts by Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to knit together seams in their air defense capabilities as Iran has rapidly developed its own offensive missiles and drones in recent years.

Iran’s proxies have repeatedly struck Saudi Arabia with drones and both ballistic and cruise missiles amid the Riyadh-led campaign against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. At the same time, the US has withdrawn a number of its own air defense batteries from the Gulf as Washington shifts strategic focus to countering the military and economic rise of China. Such decisions have increased friction between Washington and its Gulf allies.

Earlier this year, the Houthis claimed credit for drone attacks that landed in the United Arab Emirates for the first time, prompting Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed to seek additional US military support. American officials have accused Iran of pushing groups such as the Houthis to launch such cross-border projectile strikes.

Former CENTCOM commander Gen. Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie acknowledged progress in integrating Saudi Arabia’s various air defense batteries last year, but obstacles remain in convincing Gulf states to share air defense data to build an overlapping radar picture.

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07/10/2022 02:25 PM

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Re: MSM: A Middle East NATO? A missile defense network with Israel? Major shifts brewing in region
“Perceptions matter whether or not they’re rooted in a cold, cold reality. And the perception is very clear that the U.S. is not as committed to the Gulf as it used to be in the views of many people in decision-making authority in the region,” said Kristian Ulrichsen, a research fellow at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University.

“From the Saudi point of view, they now see Obama, Trump and Biden — three successive presidents — taking decisions that signify to some extent an abandonment.”

Prince Sultan Air Base, some 70 miles southeast of Riyadh, has hosted several thousand U.S. troops since a 2019 missile-and-drone attack on the heart of the kingdom’s oil production. That attack, though claimed by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, appears instead to have been carried out by Iran, according to experts and physical debris left behind. Tehran has denied launching the attack, though a drill in January saw Iranian paramilitary forces use similar drones.

Just southwest of the air base’s runway, a third-of-a-square-mile area set off by an earthen berm saw American forces station Patriot missile batteries, as well as one advanced Terminal High Altitude Area Defense unit, according to satellite images from Planet Labs Inc. A THAAD can destroy ballistic missiles at a higher altitude than Patriots.

A satellite image seen by the AP in late August showed some of the batteries removed from the area, though activity and vehicles still could be seen there. A high-resolution Planet Lab satellite picture taken Friday showed the batteries’ pads at the site empty, with no visible activity.

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07/10/2022 02:26 PM

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Re: MSM: A Middle East NATO? A missile defense network with Israel? Major shifts brewing in region
In the report, a diplomatic source was quoted by the paper as saying that "the Saudis hinted that they would agree to allow Israeli jets to pass through their airspace in order to carry out a mission with common Israeli and Saudi interests".

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07/10/2022 02:27 PM

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Re: MSM: A Middle East NATO? A missile defense network with Israel? Major shifts brewing in region
this oped is over ten years old, so this is not fully accurate.




Iran has remained alone. Even Russia and China betrayed it. While China will continue to trade with Iran, the Iranians will find it difficult to ignore what they view as Chinese hypocrisy - Beijing betraying them in the Security Council but continuing to milk them on the economic front. Indeed, at this time Iran is the most isolated state in the world, with the exception of North Korea; it is an ostracized pariah.

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07/10/2022 02:27 PM

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Re: MSM: A Middle East NATO? A missile defense network with Israel? Major shifts brewing in region
.4

While these incidents are concerning, there has been little data analysis about trends over time. To better understand the Houthi campaign, this CSIS Brief asks several questions. What are the primary military capabilities of Houthis and their security partners, especially Iran, to conduct attacks against Saudi Arabia and other targets, and how have these capabilities evolved? Has there been a change in the number or sophistication of Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia and other targets? What are the main policy implications, including the use of specific countermeasures to defend against stand-off attacks?

To answer these questions, CSIS analyzed 4,103 Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia, within Yemen and against other targets, such as maritime targets, in the Gulf between January 1, 2016, and October 20, 2021.

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07/10/2022 02:28 PM

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Re: MSM: A Middle East NATO? A missile defense network with Israel? Major shifts brewing in region
CNN Exclusive: US intel and satellite images show Saudi Arabia is now building its own ballistic missiles with help of China


Updated 6:54 PM ET, Thu December 23, 2021

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