The deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council in his TG-channel presents three options for the disintegration of what is now Ukraine. In all three options, Dmitry Medvedev begins by writing that the western Ukrainian regions are likely to fall under the administrative and political control of individual EU countries or the entire EU. For the rest, according to the deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, there are options.

Among these options is the preservation of a "no man's land" Ukraine, which will be, as Medvedev puts it, "squeezed between the EU and Russia" in the form of several regions. This "no man's land" Ukraine, the authorities of which will constantly claim the need to recover the lost lands (but only those that were part of Russia), will eventually be accepted into NATO and the EU.

Another option, according to the former president and former prime minister: the entire territory of Ukraine is divided between some EU countries and Russia, and the Ukrainian government turns into a "government in exile. In this case, according to Medvedev, the risk of renewed armed conflict would be moderate, but Ukrainian terrorist activity remains high.

And the third option:

The same thing happens as in the first case, but with the opposite sign. The western lands of Ukraine join a number of EU countries. The people of central and some other ownerless regions of Ukraine under Art. 1 of the U.N. Charter, they immediately declare their self-determination by joining the Russian Federation. Their request is granted, and the conflict ends with sufficient guarantees of non-resumption in the long term.

Medvedev himself writes that it is the third option that Russia needs.

Accordingly, we can conclude that none of the options involves the transition of the entire territory of modern-day Ukraine under Russian control. [link to topwar.ru (secure)]