WOW-- the cold hard truth

The Truth: The people with a working brain in their head know what's coming and that it is going to be extraordinarily ugly. They are prepared for it and have moved their billions of dollars into cash where they know they will get it back - the short end of the US Treasury Curve.

The Truth: In the last recession at the depths of it in the summer of 2003, just before the market turned, the lowest the 13-week bill yield reached was 0.774%. We are now trading at 30-50% below that level.

The Truth: People who know this for a fact including CNBC won't tell YOU because it is critically important to them that they get through the door before the fire starts burning the curtains, as the door is only so wide and there are a lot of people in the room. If you don't get your butt through the door your financial assets will be consumed in what's coming.

The Truth: CNBC should be SHUT DOWN as NOTHING MORE THAN A CONDUIT FOR INSIDER TRADING AND ILLEGAL MARKET MANIPULATION. Their "commentators" from various funds who are almost certainly trying to unload shares they are stuck with into YOUR HANDS should be locked up and/or sued into oblivion AS THEY ARE WELL AWARE OF WHAT IS GOING ON AND ARE USING CNBC AS NOTHING MORE THAN A WAY TO SCREW YOU WHILE THEY PROFIT. THERE IS NO BALANCE AND NO DISCLOSURE BY THESE COMMENTATORS OF THEIR POSITIONS, INCLUDING PIMCO, BOVE AND OTHERS. CRAMER IS THE WORST OF ALL OF THEM, telling people to leave money at Bear Stearns (if you believe that was about "deposits" when Bear isn't a Deposit Bank, you're dumber than a rock) and alternating between a "Caution" sign when we're down 300 and then "BUY EVERYTHING" when we're up 400 - only to see you lose 3/4 of the gains the next day! We do not have "financial TV" in this country. We have blatant market manipulation in the guise of "news" on a daily basis, 12 hours a day, AND THE SEC DOESN'T GIVE A DAMN.

The Truth: The "powers that be" (including the media, The Fed and The Banks) are absolutely beside themselves with the possibility that stocks, especially bank stocks, might decline in value. For "why" see the top of this blog entry. If you fall for this you will be wiped out. DICK BOVE PUT A MARKET PERFORM RATING ON BEAR STEARNS STOCK ON MARCH 11th - JUST THREE DAYS BEFORE IT BLEW UP AND (THE FOLLOWING MONDAY) WENT TO $2! You have NOT and you WILL NOT see CNBC or DICK BOVE take responsibility for the wipe out of SEVERAL BILLION DOLLARS IN SHAREHOLDER WEALTH - when he could have preserved YOUR MONEY if he had told you the truth about our financial institutions and that YOU SHOULD SELL ALL OF THEM AS THERE ARE AND WILL BE MORE EXPLOSIONS, ALTHOUGH NEITHER HE OR I HAVE NO WAY TO KNOW WHICH ONES AND NEITHER DO ANY OF THE ANALYSTS SINCE WE CAN'T SEE HONEST BALANCE SHEETS!

The Truth: All you hear on CNBC is "positioning for an early-cycle rebound", while in fact some $5 trillion in "value" expressed in the price of houses is permanently GONE, and that is assuming we use Freedie's and Fannie's estimates of home price decreases. If we use MY estimates the number is closer to $10 TRILLION dollars. To put this in perspective our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is about $14 trillion annually. This will have a permanent effect on the standard of living of over 100 million households in the United States and thus our economy. It is unavoidable and as a consequence MUST have a similar impact on the earnings power of United States corporations when 70% of our economy is consumption by people just like you.

The Truth: At minimum your house is going to fall in value by 15% from 2005 numbers. In coastal and other high value areas the loss will be at least 50% from 2005 values, and may be more. It is absolutely not a time to buy real estate unless you can literally get it for at least 30% off the asking price - period. Why should you take the risk of being early? Let someone else have that risk - don't be a sucker!

The Truth: You must raise cash. NOW. Not commodities, not gold, not "solid stocks", not anything of the kind. CASH, defined as actual CASH or Short-Term United States Treasuries. Again - up to $100,000 in FDIC insured banks with the rest in short-term US Treasuries - either directly (Treasury Direct) or via a Treasury Money Market fund such as VMPXX (Vanguard).

If you don't, and what The Bond Market is saying is coming happens, don't say you weren't warned - because you were - by the only voice that matters - the market.

I am unlikely to warn you again about this in this sort of detail; I have been calling for exactly this sort of event in print since last April and now we have irrefutable proof in the form of the bond market telling you that if you don't pay attention you are going to get slaughtered in what is to come.

I may be wrong and so may the bond market.

I wouldn't take that bet if I were you.

posted by Genesis | 8:42 AM Links to this post


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