Crypto bottoms when we have our next "world event" similar to covid pandemic

Can't disagree with the short idea in general, just the degree, but if you're right, it's going to be an awesome trade!

https://imgur.com/a/l36u6sT

As I've been expecting some possible profit taking the past few days, I've had a small short in as well, but I'm not expecting it to be in play past somewhere around the weekly MA200 or MA50 levels. The Volume Profile from the lows show the strongest likely resistance levels around there too, with ~$23k being the greatest to break through.

https://imgur.com/a/xQLZoLU

Stablecoin cash flow has backed out a bit, but overall still trending into the market.

https://imgur.com/a/JbmK7X4

The market cap fractal I've been following the past year isn't looking so good at the moment and might not hold up. But it's still early in the week and things could certainly turn around, or it could be as it was during the FTX troubles and temporarily depart from the pattern.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 03/28/2023 12:01 AM

When everything crashes, buy as much as you can (not just talking crypto)

Collapses are enormous, once in a lifetime opportunities

The only digital assets worth buying
XRP
XDC

as long as xrp doesn't go below 11 cents, it will have an insane bull market coming up. if it goes below 11 cents, it won't.

if it does stay above 11 cents, i will become the biggest xrp fanboy on the forum. if it stays above 11 cents, it will probably do what ethereum did last bullrun and it might 50 or 60x up(that's what ethereum did).

Also nemo. we never got 500$ ethereum. i still think that happens. possibly in june 2023. i'm just not sure if that will be the final bottom now. i've thought that would be the bottom for a long long time... but if we are truly repeating the 2001 financial crisis then I have to consider that we have yet another final crash in mid 2024.

If we have a big world event in june 2023 (and if the S&P500 falls to 3100$ in june 2023), that will tell me that it likely all bottoms in mid/late 2024. At least, that's when I will wait to buy for long term.

think about it. we have our next bitcoin halving in mid april 2024. That is when everyone and their mothers will buy crypto thinking the bullrun is on. this forum will be full of bull-tards when the next bitcoin halving happens. the absolute perfect thing for the whales to do would be to crash the markets one final time after that. this has never happened to bitcoin. the halving has always been a bullish signal. it doesn't have to be. it can crash. the halving doesn't mean jack squat when the fed is fucking with rates. if they continue to repeat the 2001 financial crisis... then it all tops in 2028/2029 and then in 2030 we repeat the 2008/2009 crisis.

Which would explain agenda 2030.

You vill own nussing und you vill be happeeee.

Klaus Schwabb's words echo in my ears 24/7 and I think they are important. They are a clue to something major happening... and it matches the 2001-2009 financial crisis perfectly.

[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

bitcoin made it's first lower low in the last 24 hours. if it loses this trendline it's going to go down. crypto is fucking around. it keeps doing what it's doing here in this picture and it's going to find out.

So, I wonder if the GLP Effect applies to Crypto prices as well ...

probably not going to try short again until end of april now. seeing it maybe going up to 31/32k now. if this happens and if this actually is the top, then i dont think it bottoms until the bitcoin halving in spring 2024. 9,000$ bitcoin is still my target for the bottom.

Thanks for your continued analysis,

For those who want to get in (right now BTC/ETH would be my only choices), do you recommend DCA’ing in still? I could see it going down to 10K again but long term might retain SOME value as an “anti-establishment” tool for going outside the CBDC systems…

look how similar matic looks to right before it crashed last year nemo.

i continue to say we are crashing. the entire market. BAD.

if we see matic at 58 cents in the next few weeks? pretty much confirms to me that we have another 6-12 months of bear market coming, at least. 58 cents should hold as support for at least a few weeks. i'll probably buy 58 cent matic and sell it at 1$ if 58 actually happens.

[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

Civil war part 2 will cause the crash. right again OP.

Nemo i'm starting to entertain the idea that this crash that i think is happening could be the last one. if we get a violent crash down to 8900$ bitcoin then i think the bullrun could start from there. i've said 8800/8900$ bitcoin numerous times before... well i found another way that it could be a repeating pattern from 2015.

I know you have been following the 2015 fractal and i have too. I have just been following it differently than how you follow it. Check out how i'm looking at it for a potential bottom.

[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

white arrow on the left was the time bitcoin made it's first higher high in 2015, first time it went over that 26 week moving average. 26 week is important because it's the moving average that the MACD is based off of.

Same thing on the right. The recent few weeks were the first time it went above the 26 week moving average.

Back in 2015, it did a 1.618 fib extension from the weekly candle closes and that was the bottom. If it does the same fib extension today, that's 8800/8900. I've said it a lot of times but 8800/8900 really could be the bottom. It's the first price i'm willing to say could be the bottom.

I'll keep you updated on this idea, it's only speculation right now. But if it follows 2015... then it happens around april 15-20th timeframe. Be funny for bitcoin to bottom on 4/20.

I checked the hourly candlesticks back in 2015 and if it repeats 2015... then it will be 20k... and 1 hour later it will be 8800/8900 for like 5 minutes and it'll be back up to 20k in like 2 hours. That's how violent this will be if it repeats 2015. Violent down. Violent up. Then bullrun.

If you see bitcoin going below 20,800$ mid april 2023 and if it follows 2015 then the 8800/8900 bottom is less than a day away. Again, I'll keep you updated. Still far away for now.

I would really like to see 8800/8900 so I can say "i bought crypto, don't care if it bottoms and i'm done telling you people what's happening to crypto." This is exhausting. It's like i feel obligated to finish what i started. I never thought it would take this long to finish the bear market and the haters honestly get to me.

8800/8900$ bitcoin. I could see it happening mid april 2023. Or maybe this all drags on until spring 2024... but I could see it happening this month. Guess we'll see what happens.

(edit: i guess you could also say that 11.5k bitcoin could be the bottom due to the weekly candle close from 2019. so either 8900 or 11.5k. but i'm leaning towards 8900 right now.)

another reason i'm entertaining this bottoming in april 2023 (this month) is that bittrex is stopping all u.s. crypto trading at the end of april 2023.

just something that catches my attention. why would they end it now? something must be happening right? well... if a bullrun was starting in may 2023... then it would make sense for them to finally stop dealing with u.s. regulators at the beginning of a new bullrun.

anyways. this part wasn't t.a., it's just connecting dots to real world events that are happening right now. i'm definitely on alert right now.

Hey Cheese,

It's a possibility, some sort of fast wick down and back up again. It would be nice to say we could "buy the bottom" but given how unreliable the exchanges become in those sorts of conditions, I'm not going to be optimistic that we would be able to actually make that trade.

Don't let the haters get you down, you'll finish and be all the better for having seen it through.

I'm thinking maybe next we'll see some of the BTC profits start to cycle into Alts as folks cash out. No good TA at the moment to support this idea, but it's where I'm looking.

~Nemo

Nemo, i'll post this idea if we actually do break down over the coming weeks... but my new timeline for a potential bottom is late 2023/early 2024. Basically, the litecoin 2019 (mini bullrun fractal) is repeating in a way i can consider relatively the same thing in current price. Again, i'll post it if we actually do break down. If we do break down, it's going to take 8-12 months to actually bottom.

Still say we won't bottom until we have a major world event.

Everyone is entirely too confident that we have bottomed, imo. Normal people don't buy the bottom. Normal people sell the bottom. Litecoin is currently at 90$, i'm expecting it at 22$ when we actually do bottom. All crypto will drop a similar percentage if litecoin does this. They are all connected. Litecoin doesn't matter to me at all but it is the best blueprint for when things bottom for me right now. The rest of 2023 will not be good for assets.

Anyways, cheers bud. Hope all is doing well with you.

nemo the big move is coming. it probably starts when the weekly candle closes.

just don't know what's going to happen. i'm always bearish when i am uncertain. you probably know that by now. i assume the worst, always.

use a stoploss bud. it's really dangerous right now.

I still think ethereum 500$ is the bottom of the market. I'm a little less sure about bitcoin. Ethereum i have thought 500$ for the last two years, consistently, without change.

Howdy Cheese,

All's well here - just been taking the time to "smell the roses", work on some other interests and wait for the market to make its next move.

Hope you're doing as well too!

I hear what you are saying and as before while I do think there is a good chance to drop down some (to the weekly MA200/Daily MA50 area, for example) I don't think we'll be back to the December/January lows or worse for a good few months yet - I could buy into the late 2023/early 2024 timeline though. Litecoin has been a good harbinger of market events in the past, so certainly is worth keeping an eye on it.

Thanks for the warning - are you considering a short position?

As we've been going sideways the past few weeks, I've hedged a bit and bought a few small leveraged shorts on ETH and BTC as we've tried to break out. My thinking is that we'll probably have a bit of profit taking down and that's where I'll exit the shorts, but if it's a major drop (unlikely in my opinion, but always a possibility) it's a bit of a buffer to help cover costs of exiting at market prices (I don't like using exchange stop loss limits, but rather use independent bots).

https://imgur.com/a/DUpEzma

BTC prices have just been going sideways the past few weeks, holding to the fib and building some positive net volume (accumulation). Still thinking it's more likely to have some testing of the weekly 200 MA or daily 50 MA, but the daily 100MA is crossing a prior support (and fib) so that could be a target now too.

We spent about 32 days back in May/June 2022 testing the $29-30k zone before breaking down, so a similar amount of time breaking up is not unreasonable, we're about 24 days in now. If we break up, the target for the next resistance for me would be the $33-38k zone. After that, I think it's likely we'll have the best chance for a cycle into Alts and a good Alt run.

https://imgur.com/a/3xPD0P7

Looking at the BTC + ETH dominance, it's interesting that they are having a good sustained period over 66.5%, something they haven't had since April 2021.

https://imgur.com/a/1VmpV1k

Stablecoin cash unsurprisingly hasn't moved much as we've been going sideways, but the general trend remains a gradual flow into the market, so I see this as a signal that folks are gradually changing positions from bearish to bullish. There does remain a lot of cash not in play, so plenty of fuel for the market to run up with if it decides to break that direction. Moving to the Gann 4/1 line, that amount of cash should bring a corresponding 14~20% rise in BTC price, so that would also be in line with the expectation of the BTC weekly 100MA or 0.618 fib as a potential target.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 04/09/2023 11:14 PM

nemo i have a really crazy theory right now. i think it's possible that this will stay bullish until march 2024. just think about it. everyone in the world expects a repeat of the march 2020 covid crash. literally every trader has this on their mind as a possibility.

That's exactly why it's a good reason for whales to do the opposite.

look at the white arrow on the left. that was a falling wedge two years ago. it could be a falling wedge that we just left bullishly in current price; not a perfect looking one.

is it insane to say some type of similar bullish price action will continue to happen? and if so, who's to say how long it will be bearish if it does this? also... this has the next big crash starting exactly at the 2024 bitcoin halving.

The entire fucking forum will be going balls deep into crypto when the halving happens next year. Everyone and their grandmother will buy bitcoin.

So... tell me i'm wrong here. Is that not literally, the best trap in the world? Crash crypto at the bitcoin halving in april 2024? This fractal overlay says exactly that happens. i may wait until march 2024 to short now. this idea says 50-60k bitcoin could happen by march 2024.

[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

nemo maybe buy some luna right now. i told you about the bullish bat harmonic the other day. check this out.

[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

luna broke that trend line. that's a big deal.

~~~
~~~
~~~

[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

here's that zoomed way way way way out.

use your imagination. imo luna is about to do something crazy bullish.

This guy is trying to grow organically. Would be dope if you subscribed to his channel. He is very no nonsense, direct and professional. He won't waste your time cuz I guess he has malaria.

Howdy Cheese,

Can't say that's crazy at all, it's sort of the general timeline I've been thinking of. The market makers will be pumping the prices going into the Halfing and be exiting at the top of the hype - that's why I've been staying long and building Alt positions.

Still, Crypto is crazily volatile, so you have to consider the possibilities there too!

Luna going crazy - would it be Lunacy to go long? LoL...

I'm not sure I would want to touch Luna, although it could be a sign of the Alts in general getting ready to do something.

https://imgur.com/a/Tx9kbii

Stablecoin cash has picked up the pace a bit moving into the market, my target remains as mentioned previously around the Gann 4/1 line intersection with the flow trend.

https://imgur.com/a/tgYW66l

The BTC price expectations (high and lows) remain as before as well.

https://imgur.com/a/IMIkfRa

BTC & ETH Dominance increased since the last update but has pulled back slightly from the recent peak.

https://imgur.com/a/Qcf591a

The Alt coin marketcap has correspondingly increased and taken together with the slight pullback on the BTC+ETH chart, could be signs of the beginning stage of an Alt run, but will want to see more of a trend here before getting too excited.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 04/18/2023 10:33 PM

Hey nemo. Wiped my account for personal reasons. I will still be here for the rest of this, just needed a little reset.

S&P500. This is the last 100 years of S&P500 on the monthly chart. In my opinion, current price action over the last few months is similar to the great depression prelude 100 years ago (blue box on the left). It's also somewhat similar to the 2001 financial crisis. Look how similar price action is to the blue box. This is not good. I don't care what anyone says. It's not good. It's technically not bad yet... but by no means is this good. The stock market has to do well for crypto to do well. If the stock market dies, then crypto dies. There is no survival for bitcoin if the stock market does this.

I just don't see the S&P500 looking like 2018. It just doesn't. Something else is happening.

https://imgur.com/a/S4zqevR

It's not good to buy crypto right now. I probably won't be buying for at least a year. Maybe two years. I might not buy crypto until the S&P500 is near the bottom of this channel... as in, s&p at 600/700 dollars or so.

I won't be buying crypto for long term until this forum is crying about crypto being dead. That is when I will buy. That is how doomish I am right now. I have faith in joe biden being here to take the blame for causing a great depression when it really was the federal reserve's monetary policy.

Last Edited by Mr Cheese on 04/26/2023 03:01 AM

probably a safe and smart way to look at what i'm seeing. luna is definitely dangerous to touch. luna being ready to do things bullishly is probably a good sign for the rest of the altcoin world. if altcoins go up and bitcoin doesn't then the little bit of bullishness over the last 6 months is probably about over. altcoins being bullish while bitcoin is not bullish is almost always the sign that the market sentiment is changing into the other direction.

Hey Señor Queso, hope you've had a good reset and all's been well with you!

Had to take some time away to take care of family and such (elderly parents). Personally, I'm not looking forward to those years, but I guess it's part of our stages in life too.

Just glad to be able to take care of them and hope my kids will do the same when it's my turn.

I'll have to put some charts up to show my current thinking. Not much has changed overall and things have played out essentially as expected so far.

But, I have some new thoughts on the bigger picture.

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 05/20/2023 12:05 PM

https://imgur.com/a/EwirHuv

Bitcoin price has finally come down to the Weekly MA200 (and Daily 100MA) so my short position closed, although it took a bit longer than expected. I'll not be surprised if there is some further action down to build up some volume below (red rectangle area) for support, but there is not enough conviction to stay in that trade anymore.

https://imgur.com/a/Q5ar7KD

The dominance level of BTC+ETH has paused.

https://imgur.com/a/C4XWDqU

The Alt coins have been beat down but are showing some signs of accumulation. Myself, this is where is greater value trade is, not so much in BTC+ETH.

https://imgur.com/a/FC9MWjp

Stablecoin cash has pulled back from the earlier trend line.

As you recall, my thinking has been since January that we were probably at (or close enough to) the market bottom that it was time to start long term accumulation. The strategy was (and is) to do short term trades, take the profits and DCA into long term holds as we build conviction on the overall market trend.

The question I've been looking to answer is where the "fuel" for any potential new Bull cycle will come from.

I track the stablecoin cash position as this is the most liquid source of fuel, but it's also essentially a captive and fixed reservoir and will only move the market so far.

For a new Bull cycle, we need a new incoming source of fuel. In the last cycle, it was retail driven (I suspect a lot of stimulus money was used) but with present economic conditions, I think that is not a possibility this time around. This time around, I think it will be driven more from institutions and professional money managers.

Despite all the Sturm und Drang over the Federal debt ceiling, it's a certainty that it will be increased and a huge amount of new dollars will essentially be printed.

The Fed has a problem with the relationship between Bond prices, Inflation and the speed (and amount) they can change the Fed rate. Right now, there is a tremendous amount of cash sitting in very short term bonds (and also not in Banks).

The effective printing of money will rapidly increase inflation (both real & perceived future). The Fed will not be able to respond fast enough or with rates great enough to offset this. Cash/Short term Bond holders will seek to protect their position by purchasing assets of all sorts (Equities, RE, PMs, Crypto).

This is why I believe we'll see a Bull run in all asset classes begin inside the next 5-10 months (maybe sooner) as the circumstances unfold and these big cash holders need to find ways to protect themselves from inflation. This will be the source of new fuel for the next Crypto Bull market.

The financial institutions in the USA may be fighting the adoption of Crypto and protecting the interests of the fiat incumbents, but the rest of the world is moving on (the EU is moving ahead with MiCA, for example) and the cash will find a way to move to where the best returns are possible.

So, as we have dips along the way the next few weeks/months I'm planning to buy a bit more than just my trade profits and increase DCA accumulation activity.

No guarantees it will work out and as always it's entirely possible it all goes to zero, but we'll see how it pans out over the next year/year and a half or so.

What happens after that? Could be as you suspect Señor Queso...

It's an interesting hobby to have. :)

Last Edited by nemo_solus on 05/20/2023 01:49 PM

They won't default. They will raise the debt limit. So money printing will happen I don't see the housing market crashing.

[link to broward.ghost.io (secure)]